Wheat futures steady but forward curve points to mild recovery

Wheat futures are trading quietly with a flat day-on-day move, but the forward curve on MATIF and CBOT still prices in a gradual recovery, while physical FOB levels in the EU and Black Sea remain soft.

A calm futures session masks a still-bearish cash environment. On Euronext, the front May 2026 wheat contract last traded around EUR 195.75/t, with new-crop September 2026 near EUR 209/t, showing a modest carry into the 2026/27 season. CBOT soft red winter wheat is slightly lower across nearby contracts, reflecting comfortable global export availability and ongoing competition from Black Sea origins. Physical FOB offers confirm this picture: French 11% protein wheat ex-Paris is around EUR 0.28/kg, while Ukrainian 11–12.5% wheat ex-Odesa is closer to EUR 0.18/kg, highlighting persistent price pressure in the Black Sea.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

MATIF wheat is unchanged on the day, but the curve is gently upward sloping, signalling slightly firmer price expectations further out:

Contract	Last (EUR/t)
May 2026	195.75
Sep 2026	209.00
Dec 2026	216.25
Mar 2027	220.75
May 2027	224.00

Further out, values edge up towards EUR 230/t for 2028–2029 expiries, reinforcing a structure of mild contango. Open interest remains concentrated in the nearby 2026 and 2027 contracts, underlining these as key hedging points for European producers and consumers.

On CBOT, nearby May 2026 trades around 604 USc/bu and July 2026 around 612 USc/bu, both marginally lower on the day. The small red numbers (about -0.1% to -0.2%) underline a lack of fresh bullish drivers and highlight the dominance of comfortable global stocks and strong export competition, especially from the Black Sea and, to a lesser degree, the EU.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Physical Market

Physical indications corroborate the futures picture of ample supply and aggressive competition:

• France: 11.0% protein wheat FOB Paris is around EUR 0.28/kg (~EUR 280/t), slightly easier versus early April, pointing to limited nearby demand and well-covered buyers.
• Ukraine (Odesa, FOB): 11.0–12.5% wheat mostly around EUR 0.18/kg (~EUR 180/t), showing no meaningful premium for higher protein and underlining that sellers are prioritising volume over price.
• Ukraine (FCA domestic): Kyiv and Odesa FCA levels are stable around EUR 0.23–0.25/kg, suggesting local logistics and internal demand are absorbing some pressure, but not enough to lift FOB values.

The narrow spread between different protein classes in Ukraine and the discount to French wheat keeps global benchmarks capped. Importers with flexible origin requirements are likely to continue favouring Black Sea supplies, limiting upside for MATIF despite the slightly firmer forward curve.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Check

Fundamentally, the market is still digesting large global stocks and a broadly favourable 2026 harvest outlook in the Northern Hemisphere. The absence of sharp daily price moves on MATIF and CBOT underscores that no major weather or policy shock has emerged in recent sessions.

Weather in key exporting regions (EU, Black Sea, US Plains) is currently viewed as adequate for crop development, with no acute drought or frost scare dominating trade. As a result, risk premiums in new-crop contracts remain limited. The gently rising curve into 2027–2028 reflects long-term cost inflation and structural risk rather than any immediate concern over supply.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers: The discount of Ukrainian FOB (~EUR 180/t equivalent) to French (~EUR 280/t) continues to offer attractive short-term buying opportunities, especially for flexible quality requirements. Consider scaling in cover on price dips while freight and logistics remain stable.
• EU producers: With MATIF May 2026 below EUR 200/t and new-crop Sep 2026 around EUR 209/t, upside is limited in the short run. Incremental hedging of 2026 production on rallies above EUR 210–215/t for Sep looks prudent.
• End-users in Europe: The combination of soft FOB and flat futures suggests maintaining a patient stance but avoiding being uncovered into potential weather-driven volatility in late spring. Layering in hedges on dips toward EUR 195/t on front months can help secure attractive feed and flour margins.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction (EUR)

• MATIF (Paris): Sideways to slightly softer; May 2026 expected to hold roughly in a EUR 193–198/t band absent new weather news.
• CBOT (via EUR-equivalent): Mild downside bias following the recent small declines in nearby contracts, with any rallies likely capped by Black Sea competition.
• FOB EU & Black Sea: Stable to marginally weaker; French FOB likely to hover near EUR 0.28/kg, Ukrainian FOB near EUR 0.18/kg as sellers focus on moving remaining old-crop stocks.