Wheat Market Edges Higher as EU Export Prospects Improve

Wheat prices are stabilising at a higher level, supported by stronger US benchmarks and firmer energy markets, while ample old-crop stocks still cap gains in the physical market. Forward spreads on Euronext and in German inland bids signal a clear improvement in new-crop pricing and growing interest in 2026/27 supply.

European wheat markets are currently caught between heavy nearby supplies and improving forward demand signals. Old-crop cash prices move only slightly as large inventories continue to weigh, yet new-crop selling opportunities have brightened: German feed mills in South Oldenburg have lifted September bids by EUR 11/t within a week, and MATIF futures show a marked carry into 2027–2028. At the same time, high US prices are opening a temporary export window for EU wheat into the US East Coast and West Africa. Fund positioning has flipped to net long on Euronext, underlining a more bullish sentiment going into the USDA export data release.

📈 Prices & Spreads

On Euronext, the May 2026 wheat contract trades around EUR 195.25/t, with September 2026 at EUR 217.25/t and December 2026 at EUR 226/t, showing a pronounced carry along the forward curve. Further out, March 2027 is quoted near EUR 231/t and May 2027 at EUR 233.50/t, while contracts into 2028–2029 largely remain in the EUR 235–239/t range, reinforcing expectations of structurally firmer prices versus current spot levels.

In the German cash market, old-crop prices remain sluggish due to heavy stocks and recurring offers that keep a lid on any rally. In contrast, new-crop feed wheat in South Oldenburg for September delivery is bid at about EUR 226/t, up EUR 11/t from the previous week, and the spread between May and September has widened from EUR 12/t to EUR 21/t within one week. This widening reflects both improved export prospects and growing risk premiums for the 2026/27 season.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Global wheat trade flows are being reshaped by the current US price level. Elevated US prices make EU wheat increasingly competitive, potentially enabling exports from Europe to the US East Coast – an unusual but price-driven arbitrage. At the same time, EU export opportunities into West Africa are improving after months in which cheaper US wheat had displaced traditional European origins in that market.

However, export demand overall remains subdued. Many importers are hoping for a decline in prices should tensions around the Persian Gulf ease and freight and risk premiums fall. This cautious buying stance limits immediate upside in EU cash prices despite the better theoretical export margins and contributes to the current standoff between bullish futures and sluggish spot activity.

📊 Fundamentals & Positioning

On the production side, early outlooks for the 2026/27 season point to some tightening versus last year. The USDA’s overseas offices currently estimate Australia’s wheat crop at 29 million tonnes, down 6 million tonnes year on year, and Canada’s crop at 36.16 million tonnes, about 3.8 million tonnes below the previous season. These expected reductions in two key exporters reinforce the need for competitive Black Sea and EU supplies in the global balance.

In derivatives markets, financial investors have turned more constructive on European wheat. As of the week to 24 April, funds and financial institutions shifted from a net short of 11,168 contracts in the previous week to a net long of 5,991 contracts in milling wheat futures and options on Euronext. Commercial hedgers moved in the opposite direction, switching from a net long of 19,695 contracts to a net short of 1,553 contracts, indicating active forward selling by physical market participants into the recent price strength.

📆 Short-Term Events & Weather

The USDA will release weekly export sales data for the week to 23 April later today. Market expectations are modest: traders see old-crop wheat sales in a range of 0 to 300,000 tonnes and new-crop commitments between 0 and 200,000 tonnes. Any surprise on the upper end of these ranges could lend additional support to Chicago futures and, by extension, to Euronext pricing.

Weather remains a key but currently secondary driver versus stocks and macro factors such as oil prices. With no major immediate weather shock reported in key exporters, the market’s focus stays on demand, geopolitical risk premiums, and the evolving outlook for 2026/27 crops in Australia and Canada. Nonetheless, any shift toward adverse conditions in these regions would quickly reinforce the emerging bullish tilt in speculative positioning.

💡 Trading Outlook

• Producers in the EU: Consider scaling in additional new-crop hedges at current forward levels around EUR 220–230/t (MATIF Sep/Dec 2026), especially where on-farm stocks remain heavy and basis risk is manageable.
• Importers in North and West Africa: Use current pauses in the rally and weak nearby demand to secure a share of 2026/27 coverage, as cuts in Australian and Canadian output may tighten export availability later in the season.
• Traders and processors: Watch the USDA export sales data and fund positioning closely; a sustained net-long build by speculators combined with any uptick in demand could trigger a further push higher along the Euronext curve.

📍 3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

Contract/Market	Current Level (EUR/t)	3-Day Bias
Euronext May 2026	≈ 195	Sideways to slightly firmer
Euronext Sep 2026	≈ 217	Slightly firmer on export hopes
German inland (Sep feed, South Oldenburg)	≈ 226	Stable to slightly firmer