Almonds: Stable California Plantings but Gradual Shift Away from Nonpareil

California almond nursery data point to a stabilising acreage base, but a slow erosion of Nonpareil’s share of new plantings signals a structurally tighter outlook for premium product over the medium term. Near-term pricing will still hinge on the 2026 crop and weather, yet today’s planting choices are quietly reshaping tomorrow’s variety mix.

After a period of acreage adjustment, the latest USDA nursery survey indicates that total plantings for June 2024–May 2025 held at roughly 23,000 acres (about 9,300 ha), matching the previous year. This confirms that new orchard establishment is broadly offsetting removals rather than driving fresh expansion. However, Nonpareil plantings slipped year on year, and replacement activity remains high, underscoring both ongoing cost pressure and growers’ shift toward alternative varieties. In this context, firm global demand and steady acreage suggest a more balanced to gradually tightening market for premium grades.

📈 Prices & Current Market Tone

Indicative kernel offers converted to EUR show a broadly steady but firm market. Recent quotations (FOB/FAS equivalent) include:

Product	Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	1-week change
Almond kernels, Carmel SSR 18/20	US	Conventional	≈ 6.15	Flat
Almond kernels, Carmel SSR 20/22	US	Conventional	≈ 6.10	Flat
Almond kernels, Nonpareil SSR 27/30, organic	US	Premium	≈ 8.55	Flat
Almond kernels, Marcona 14/16	Spain	Conventional	≈ 7.50	Flat

Prices in both the US and Spanish origins have been broadly unchanged over the last two weeks, indicating a market that is currently well supplied but attentive to forward signals from California acreage and the developing 2026 crop. Recent commentary also highlights firm demand and only moderate pipeline coverage, consistent with a balanced to slightly snug tone. cite turn0search3

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

California remains the dominant origin in global almond trade, and the latest nursery survey implies around 23,000 acres of new plantings in 2024/25, identical to 2023/24. This stability suggests that total bearing acreage is unlikely to contract sharply in the medium term, as new orchards are largely replacing removed blocks rather than adding substantial net area.

Within this steady headline, varietal dynamics are shifting. Sales of the benchmark Nonpareil variety slipped from about 9,000 acres to 8,000 acres, with Nonpareil new-orchard plantings down from roughly 6,000 acres to 5,000 acres. Replacement planting represents around 39% of total sales (about 9,000 acres), confirming active orchard turnover driven by economics rather than expansion.

On the demand side, India, the EU and China remain the key importers, and recent global market commentary underscores that consumption in these regions continues to trend higher, particularly in snack, confectionery and dairy-alternative channels. cite turn0search3 In this context, a stable but not growing California acreage base points toward a more finely balanced global supply-demand picture over the coming seasons.

📊 Fundamentals & Varietal Shifts

The decline in Nonpareil’s planting share is commercially significant. Nonpareil is the reference variety for many export contracts, prized for its appearance and versatility and typically commanding a premium to polliniser and “industry” grades. A gradual reduction in its weight within new orchards implies that future availability of top-tier Nonpareil could tighten relative to broader almond supply, even if total acreage holds steady.

Growers appear to be reallocating some area to alternative varieties that offer stronger agronomic performance – including improved disease resistance, better fit with local water constraints, and more efficient harvest. Elevated production costs, water scarcity and higher irrigation costs in the San Joaquin Valley continue to pressure marginal orchards, making replacement decisions more selective and favouring robust, adaptable varieties.

Replacement planting accounting for almost two-fifths of total nursery sales indicates that older, less productive orchards are being cycled out. This process should support yields per acre and quality in the medium term but reinforces the notion that acreage growth is capped by water and cost realities, rather than open-ended.

🌦 Weather & Crop Conditions

The 2026 California crop is past bloom and into early leaf development, with recent reports flagging Red Leaf Blotch as a continuing disease consideration for growers. cite turn0search0 So far, spring conditions have tended toward drier and warmer than last year in many producing areas, limiting excessive disease pressure but reinforcing the importance of irrigation management as the season advances.

Medium-range outlooks for central California into May 2026 indicate generally mild to warm conditions with near-normal to slightly below-normal precipitation. cite turn0search2 For almonds, this points to a weather pattern that is broadly supportive of crop development, provided water allocations remain adequate. At this stage, market attention is focused on how these conditions translate into nut set and early crop potential rather than on acute weather shocks.

📆 Outlook & Trading Strategy

In the next 30–90 days, price discovery will be driven primarily by incoming indicators on the 2026 crop size and quality: USDA crop progress updates, Almond Board shipment and position reports, and any emerging yield signals from key producing counties. cite turn0search12 Nursery data serve mainly as a structural backdrop, confirming that acreage rationalisation has slowed and the industry is close to a new equilibrium. cite turn0search6

Over a 6–12 month horizon, the stable total planting level provides a clear baseline for supply modelling, while the erosion in Nonpareil share suggests a gradual tightening bias for top-grade material. Any upward revision to the current 23,000-acre planting estimate, once full nursery participation is confirmed, would modestly soften this structural view but not overturn the trend toward more selective, efficiency-driven orchards.

🧭 Key Takeaways for Market Participants

• Premium buyers (Nonpareil-focused): Consider extending coverage modestly into 2026/27 where pricing is acceptable, as varietal trends point to relatively tighter availability of benchmark grades over time.
• Value-oriented users: Explore blends and alternative varieties (e.g., Carmel, pollinisers) to manage cost, as overall almond supply is likely to remain adequate even if Nonpareil tightens.
• Growers and handlers: Use current firmness to lock in forward sales on high-quality Nonpareil and well-specified alternatives, while closely monitoring disease developments and water cost trends that could impact realised yields.
• Risk management: Track upcoming USDA acreage and crop reports, Almond Board shipment data and summer weather; unexpected yield downgrades could quickly move the market from balanced to tight.

📍 3-Day Directional Price Outlook (EUR)

• US Nonpareil kernels, premium grades: Sideways to slightly firm; limited nearby pressure, but buyers remain cautious on forward coverage.
• US standard grades (Carmel and similar): Mostly sideways; sufficient supply, with modest upside risk if crop concerns intensify.
• Spanish varieties (Valencia, Marcona, Guara): Steady; competitive versus US origins and supported by consistent European demand.