Tight Turkish Dried Apricot Supply Keeps Prices Firm Ahead of New Crop

Turkish dried apricot supply for the coming season is shaping up below last year, with an uneven orchard picture and an indicative crop around 60–70,000 t that many growers already view as optimistic. Spot export prices in EUR remain firm and broadly stable, suggesting limited downside unless crop estimates improve materially next month.

Demand along the European pipeline is steady rather than exuberant, but buyers are increasingly aware that the new crop will not replenish stocks as generously as in previous years. This is supporting a floor under prices for both sulphured and unsulphured origins. With Malatya weather currently benign and key quality risks now behind, market attention is turning from frost fears to final yield reality and the timing of pre‑harvest sales.

📈 Prices

Export offers from Türkiye for standard dried apricots remain firm, with only marginal movements over the past month:

• No. 1–5 unsulphured, conventional, FOB Malatya/Ankara: about EUR 7.8–8.6/kg.
• Organic unsulphured (No. 1–4), FOB: roughly EUR 9.3–10.4/kg.
• Sulphured No. 1–8 (2,000 ppm), FOB: around EUR 7.3–8.7/kg.
• Dutch/EU stocks (cubes, FCA NL): mostly EUR 5.5–6.5/kg, slightly easier week‑on‑week on minor adjustments.

Prices have been essentially flat between mid‑April and early May in EUR terms, consolidating the step‑up seen after earlier frost concerns. The current structure reflects a market that has already priced in a smaller crop, with sellers in no hurry to discount ahead of clearer yield data.

Product	Grade / Type	Location / Term	Current price (EUR/kg)
Apricots dried	No. 1 unsulphured	Malatya, FOB	8.55
Apricots dried	No. 4 unsulphured, organic	Ankara, FOB	9.30
Apricots dried	No. 5 sulphured	Malatya, FOB	8.00

🌍 Supply & Demand

Orchard conditions in the main Turkish growing areas are highly heterogeneous. Well‑managed blocks that were pruned after last year’s frost and consistently irrigated and treated show a reasonable fruit load. In contrast, older Hacıhaliller trees over 20 years are largely empty, and Kabaaşı grafted trees, while initially promising, have suffered from several days of rain during flowering, leading to monilia infections and poor pollination.

Regional rainfall patterns created strong micro‑differences. Where flowering coincided with rain, Kabaaşı trees dropped much of their fruit and now carry crop mainly on top branches. By contrast, Çataloğlu and Kadıoğlu grafts bloomed about a week later, escaping the worst of the disease pressure and now show a comparatively better fruit set. Overall, the dried apricot crop is estimated at roughly 60–70,000 t, but many growers perceive this as on the high side based on their own orchards.

On the demand side, export interest from Europe remains steady, supported by stable retail of dried fruit and bakery ingredients. With no clear surplus emerging, buyers are cautious about delaying coverage too far into the summer, especially for higher grades and organic volumes, which are structurally tighter.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market faces a likely smaller dried apricot harvest than last season, with confirmation expected as fruit sizing and load become clearer over the next month. The combination of disease pressure in sensitive varieties, poor set in older trees and only average performance in many Kabaaşı orchards points to a crop below previous years’ norms.

In the short term, weather in Malatya is supportive for fruit development: the coming three days (6–8 May) are forecast to be cool to mild with cloud turning to mostly sunny conditions and highs around 17–20°C, without significant rain or frost risk. This reduces additional downside risk to yield and shifts the focus to how much fruit is actually on the trees rather than new weather damage.

📆 Trading Outlook

• For importers/industrial users: Consider covering a meaningful share of Q3–Q4 needs at current levels, especially for No. 1–3 unsulphured and organic grades, as a structurally smaller crop limits downside in EUR.
• For packers/exporters: With farmers already doubtful about optimistic crop numbers, resist aggressive forward sales until June crop assessments firm up; prioritize margin protection over volume.
• For traders: The flat but firm price structure and uncertain final crop support a mildly bullish bias; look for dips driven by short‑term currency or sentiment moves to add length rather than chase upside spikes.

📌 Short-Term Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• Malatya FOB, unsulphured No. 1–4: Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR; sellers well‑oriented and under no pressure.
• Malatya/Ankara FOB, sulphured grades: Stable; tight supply but balanced by cautious demand.
• EU warehouses (NL, PL, FCA cubes and bulk): Mostly steady, with only minor technical adjustments expected as buyers watch origin crop news.