Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as Weather Risks Stay Manageable

Turkish dried apricot prices are broadly steady, with FOB Malatya/Ankara offers for key unsulphured grades holding in a narrow range and only minor softness in European cube prices. Recent hail and cool, wet weather around Malatya have caused localized damage but so far do not justify a major risk premium. The near‑term price bias is sideways to mildly firm as sellers resist further discounts and export demand remains solid.

Stable prices in Turkey contrast with a slightly softer tone on some FCA Europe listings for diced/cube product, where values have eased by around €0.05/kg in recent sessions but remain supported by tight global supply. Producers and exporters in Malatya remain generally optimistic after initial assessments indicated that recent hailstorms affected a limited share of orchards, with damage typically below 30% in impacted areas. With no severe frost in early May and a relatively benign 3‑day weather outlook, the physical market is focused on managing low carry‑over and positioning for the 2026 crop rather than reacting to fresh weather shocks.

📈 Prices & Differentials

FOB offers from Turkey for dried apricots are broadly unchanged versus late April, reflecting a balanced spot market. Unsulphured whole fruit from Malatya is clustered just below or around €8.00/kg for mid‑range sizes, while organic and premium calibres command a clear surcharge. Sulphured material trades in a tight band slightly above or around the unsulphured levels for comparable sizes, as buyers prioritise color and shelf life.

Product (TR origin)	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1‑Month Trend
Dried apricots no. 5, unsulphured	Malatya, FOB	≈ €7.80	Sideways
Dried apricots no. 4, unsulphured	Malatya, FOB	≈ €8.00	Sideways
Dried apricots no. 1, unsulphured	Malatya, FOB	≈ €8.55	Sideways
Dried apricots no. 1, unsulphured, organic	Malatya, FOB	≈ €10.20	Sideways
Dried apricots no. 2, unsulphured, organic	Malatya, FOB	≈ €10.35	Sideways
Dried apricots no. 5, sulphured (2000 ppm)	Malatya, FOB	≈ €8.00	Sideways
Dried apricots no. 1, sulphured (2000 ppm)	Malatya, FOB	≈ €8.70	Sideways
Dried apricot cubes no. 5–6	Dordrecht (NL), FCA	≈ €5.95–6.00	Slightly softer

Recent European commentary describes Turkish dried apricot prices as having softened marginally but still at historically tight levels due to the 2025 frost‑driven supply shock and small carry‑over into 2026. The latest European apricot outlook also points to somewhat softer dried prices in the medium term as EU supply recovers, but the adjustment is gradual and from a high base.

🌍 Supply, Weather & Demand Drivers (TR Focus)

In Malatya, recent weeks brought thunderstorms, localized hail and a mix of rain and even some snowfall in the wider eastern Turkey region. However, current assessments indicate damage is limited: Turkish trade sources estimate around 20,000 decares affected with 5–30% damage in those specific areas, and overall producers remain optimistic about the new crop. This implies no immediate need to re‑price the market sharply higher on weather concerns.

The short‑term weather outlook for Malatya from 6–8 May 2026 shows cool but seasonally normal conditions: daytime highs around 16–20°C, lows 6–8°C, with clouds, some rain and increasing sunshine towards the end of the period. Critically, no damaging frost events are forecast, lowering immediate production risk. At the same time, European fresh apricot output is expected to rise about 6% year‑on‑year to roughly 505,000 tonnes in 2026, although flowering‑time weather has capped the crop’s full potential. This combination suggests more comfortable global stone‑fruit availability but continued select tightness in top‑quality dried segments.

On the demand side, Turkey’s broader dried fruit export performance in early 2026 remains robust, with official data showing strong dried grape and mixed dried fruit exports that confirm sustained international appetite for shelf‑stable fruit products. Malatya alone generated around USD 66 million in dried apricot exports in Q1 2026, underlining the region’s continued dominance in this segment. As buyers in Europe and other key markets secure coverage into the new crop year, this steady export pull is helping keep FOB Turkish prices firm despite modest easing signals in some downstream European warehouses.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Balance

Fundamentals remain shaped by the severe 2025 frost losses, which sharply cut Turkish production and limited carry‑over into 2026. Industry analysis suggests that carry‑over stocks of Turkish dried apricots may be only around 30,000–50,000 tonnes, expected to be largely depleted by late 2026 if current shipment pace continues. With such constrained inventories, even a near‑normal 2026 crop would first need to refill the pipeline before allowing significant price relief.

At the same time, competing origins like Uzbekistan and Iran have expanded dried apricot exports, but volumes are insufficient to fully replace Turkish supplies on EU retail shelves. European market intelligence notes that dried apricot prices are showing a softening tendency mainly because of slightly improved regional supply rather than any collapse in demand. Overall, the global balance for dried apricots remains relatively tight, with Turkey still the price‑setting origin, especially for higher‑grade whole fruit and organic product.

📆 3‑Day Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Weather in Malatya over the next three days is not expected to pose acute risk to the 2026 apricot crop, supporting a stable near‑term price outlook. With producers reporting limited hail damage and no fresh frost events, the main driver in the coming week is likely to be export demand and currency rather than new weather headlines.

🧭 Trading outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Importers in the EU and MENA: Consider covering Q3–Q4 2026 requirements on current flat FOB levels, especially for organic and large unsulphured calibres that remain structurally tight.
• Industrial buyers (cubes/diced, FCA Europe): Take advantage of the slight softness in Dutch warehouse prices (around €5.50–6.00/kg) to replenish stocks, but avoid over‑short positioning given limited global surplus.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Maintain disciplined offer levels; given low carry‑over and steady export demand, aggressive discounts are not justified unless clearer evidence of a large 2026 crop emerges.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara, whole unsulphured (all grades): ~€7.80–10.35/kg – expected sideways over the next 3 days.
• FOB Malatya, whole sulphured (no. 1–8): ~€7.30–8.70/kg – expected sideways to slightly firm as sellers resist further easing.
• FCA NL (Dordrecht) cubes/diced: ~€5.50–6.00/kg – tone slightly weak but stabilising near current levels.