Global sunflowerseed production for 2021/22 is forecast at 57 million metric tons, up 7.9 million from last year. Output gains for this month total 1 million tons because of higher crop estimates for Russia and Ukraine. For Russia, the sunflowerseed crop is raised 500,000 tons this month to 15.5 million on higher harvested acreage.
Additional sunflowerseed production for both Russia and Ukraine would primarily be crushed domestically with the by-products exported. In Russia, the 2021/22 sunflowerseed crush is expected to total 14.15 million tons, well above the 2020/21 total of 12.4 million tons. For Ukraine, the sunflowerseed crop is revised up by 500,000 tons to reach 17.5 million as the final reported yield was better than expected. This year’s crop in Ukraine is 3.4 million tons higher than last year and will be a record for the country. This additional supply is expected to prompt an increase in sunflowerseed crush that is forecast to reach 16.95 million tons, up 400,000 tons from last month and 3.2 million tons higher than last season.
With a record crush forecasted for Ukraine and Russia, world sunflowerseed oil production in 2021/22 is expected to reach 22 million tons, which is 2.9 million tons higher than last year and 258,000 tons higher than last month’s forecast. The additional output of sunflowerseed oil is primarily exported to China, the European Union, and Turkey as well as consumed domestically. Sunflowerseed meal production is also revised upwards this month by 243,000 tons and predicted to reach 23.5 million.
Record Rapeseed Production in Australia Helps to Offset Losses in Canada
The 2021/22 forecast of global rapeseed production is revised upwards 850,000 tons to 68.35 million this month as crops in Australia, the European Union, India, and Russia are revised upwards while the crop in Canada is reduced by 0.4 million metric tons. For Australia, rapeseed production is forecast to reach a new national record of 5.5 million tons, which is 0.7 million tons higher than last month’s forecast and 1 million higher than last year’s crop. Australian farmers increased harvested area by 550,000 hectares to 3 million hectares. The favorable growing conditions observed in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia contributed to record rapeseed yields in those States and buoy the national rapeseed yield close to a record of 1.83 metric tons per hectare.
As a result of a higher rapeseed crop in Australia, 2021/22 exports are revised up by 600,000 tons to a record 4.6 million with Japan and United Arab Emirates receiving the majority of increased shipments. Higher Australian exports will more than offset the 400,000-ton reduction in Canadian rapeseed exports this month, which are now projected at 5.3 million. The reduced supply of 2021/22 rapeseed portends very tight season-ending stocks for Canada. This outcome is conditioned on a firm outlook for rapeseed demand for crush in Canada that was left unchanged this month at 8.5 million tons.
China’s Soybean Production Revised Down on Lower Sown Area
This month, China’s soybean production forecast was reduced by 2.6 million tons to 16.4 million tons, as reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The smaller production forecast is mainly due to disadvantaged profits for soybeans when compared with alternative crop profits. For this reason, soybean harvested acreage fell significantly to 8.4 million hectares from 2020/21, down 15 percent, or a net reduction of 1.5 million hectares. Yield is also slightly lower at 1.95 tons per hectare.
Soybean crush is reduced by 1 million ton this month as crush margins are low and does not support the pace forecasted last month. The annual crush forecast now stands at 97 million tons. Both domestic meal and oil production is adjusted downwards to 76.8 million metric tons and 17.4 million metric tons, respectively, based on the slower than anticipated growth in consumption. Soybean imports are unchanged this month at 100 million metric tons. With unchanged imports and lower production, ending stocks are reduced this month by 1.6 million metric tons to 34 million metric tons. The forecasted ending stocks are the second largest after last year.
Source: USDA
For more information, facts and figures, become a member. Click here.
The following reports may be of interest to you:
Related posts:
Sunflower prices get support from oil market 
Ukraine: Oilseeds prices stable 
In December Ukrainian Ports Increased Export Shipments of Sunflower Oil 
Russia Fat and Oil: Exports of fat and oil products from the Russian Federation have increased by 50% 
There could be an oversupply of soybeans and sunflower kernels in Russia 
Sunflower prices in Ukrainian ports decreased Soybeans and sunflower prices moved down. 
Forecasts: Ukraine will harvest 20% more oilseeds. 
Spring sowing 2021 in Ukraine is coming to the end.