Guava prices are firming as the Calvillo, Aguascalientes, season winds down, tightening short-term supply, while year-round volumes from Michoacán keep the overall market balanced. In the coming weeks, softer seasonal demand and weather-driven quality risks in Michoacán will be the key variables for price direction.
The guava market is transitioning from a high-quality, high-demand winter phase into a quieter off-season period that typically lasts until September. As Calvillo exits the market on schedule, buyers are leaning more on Michoacán, where year-round production is currently stable and markedly better than the shortages seen in the last two years. At the same time, guava faces stronger competition from berries and melons, and off-season fruit is often viewed as less visually attractive, which can weigh on premiums. Nonetheless, underlying consumption trends remain positive, supported by health-focused consumers and expanding processed uses in jellies, desserts and bakery.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Guava dried
white
FOB 5.25 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
Fresh guava prices are on a clear upward trajectory as the seasonal close in Calvillo tightens near-term availability. The main driver is the normal seasonal decline in fruit from this key region, which had provided strong quality and volumes from January through March.
Despite this firming tone in fresh markets, dried guava offers from Vietnam show a steady picture. Recent FOB Hanoi levels for conventional white dried guava have held around EUR 5.25/kg over the past month, indicating no immediate spill-over of Mexican fresh-market tightness into processed export prices.
| Product | Origin | Location / Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Trend (4 weeks) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guava, dried, white | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 5.25 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
The Calvillo region is nearing the end of its normal harvest cycle, reducing fresh supply and underpinning firmer prices. This transition is unfolding as expected seasonally, but it temporarily tightens the market because Calvillo is a major contributor to Mexico’s guava output.
Supply continuity is currently being ensured by Michoacán, where guava is grown year-round. Volumes from this region are described as stable and significantly better than during the past two years, when shortages led to more pronounced supply squeezes. This improvement is cushioning the impact of Calvillo’s seasonal exit and helping avoid a sharper price spike.
On the demand side, the market is entering its traditional slower period, lasting roughly until September. During this phase, consumers shift part of their fruit purchases to competing seasonal items such as berries and melons, and off-season guava is often perceived as less visually appealing than winter fruit, which tends to limit upside on retail demand.
Structurally, however, guava demand is improving. Over the last year, consumption has grown steadily, driven by heightened awareness of its nutritional benefits and broader retail presence. The expanding use of guava in processed products – including jellies, desserts and bakery applications – is supporting a broader, more diversified demand base beyond traditional fresh markets.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather
In Michoacán, growing conditions are currently on the dry side, and producers are awaiting more consistent rainfall. Latest short-term forecasts point to very warm to hot conditions with only limited precipitation signals, which could maintain dryness in the coming days.
If timely rains are further delayed, some impact on fruit quality and shelf life is likely. This would not necessarily lead to a deep volume shortage, but could affect marketability, sorting losses and the share of fruit reaching premium grades, especially as temperatures stay high.
Earlier in the year, from January through March, strong quality supported robust demand and stable pricing. That period confirmed that the market is able to absorb larger volumes when quality is high and promotional activity is well aligned, suggesting an increasingly resilient underlying demand structure.
📆 Short-Term Outlook
In the near term, the combination of tightening supply from Calvillo and stable year-round production in Michoacán points to firm but not extreme price levels. As the slower demand season progresses and competing summer fruits gain shelf space, the current upward price momentum is likely to flatten.
Weather is the main risk factor. Prolonged dryness and heat in Michoacán could reduce average quality and shorten shelf life, particularly for fruit destined for longer distribution chains. In that case, premiums for higher-grade lots may widen, while lower-grade fruit discounts could increase, leading to greater intra-market price dispersion rather than a uniform rally.
📌 Trading Outlook
- Fresh buyers: Secure short-term needs early while Calvillo supplies are still available, but avoid overstocking into the slower demand window where retail offtake can soften.
- Exporters and packers: Focus on stringent quality selection in Michoacán as dry, hot weather persists, prioritising export programs and premium domestic channels for the best fruit.
- Processed segment (dried / ingredients): With Vietnamese dried guava prices stable and Mexican fresh supply relatively balanced, consider medium-term coverage at current levels, which appear well anchored.
📉 3‑Day Directional View (EUR-based)
- Mexico fresh guava (domestic/nearby export): Slightly firmer bias as Calvillo exits, but no sharp moves expected.
- Processed/dried guava (Asia export, quoted in EUR): Sideways; offers remain stable around current EUR levels.
- Premium-quality fruit: Potential for small quality-driven premiums if heat and dryness in Michoacán start to affect appearance and shelf life.
