Indian Peanut Prices Hold Firm as Heat Intensifies in Gujarat and Delhi

Indian peanut export prices are broadly steady in mid‑April, with only minor week‑on‑week adjustments and no clear directional breakout. Very hot, dry weather across Gujarat and North India supports a slightly firm tone, but comfortable supplies and non‑aggressive export demand are capping upside.

The market is trading in a relatively tight EUR range for both bold and java types ex‑Gujarat and New Delhi. Export interest from traditional buyers is described as firm but cautious, with buyers resisting higher offers and preferring hand‑to‑mouth coverage. With heat building over the next three days in key growing and trading hubs, logistics and quality risks need monitoring, yet no immediate weather‑driven supply shock is visible.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Using an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 1.08 USD, current export and domestic‑equivalent levels translate approximately as follows:

Origin / Type	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1‑Week Trend
India – Bold 40–70	New Delhi / Gujarat, FOB	≈ 0.93–0.98	Stable
India – Java 50–80	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 1.00–1.10	Stable to slightly firm
India – Birdfeed	New Delhi, CFR key Asian ports	≈ 0.83–0.90	Flat
Brazil – Raw	Brazil, FOB	≈ 1.03–1.05	Stable

Recent export market commentary confirms that mid‑April Indian bold and java peanut offers ex‑New Delhi and Gujarat are concentrated roughly in the EUR 0.92–1.20/kg FOB range, with little week‑on‑week movement and a generally balanced tone between sellers and buyers.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

India enters April with relatively comfortable groundnut supplies after a slightly higher Gujarat Kharif crop estimate for 2024‑25, which was revised up to about 4.6 million tonnes, easing immediate tightness concerns. This stock situation, together with steady but not aggressively expanding export demand, explains the current sideways price action.

Global balance remains competitive but not oversupplied. A recent USDA oilseed trade update notes larger Indian exports among several oilseed products in 2025/26, signalling India’s strong position as a low‑cost exporter in the wider oilseed complex. Brazilian peanut offers, converted to EUR, track close to Indian values, keeping a lid on any unilateral Indian price rally.

🌦 Weather Watch: Gujarat & North India

In Gujarat, a key bold and java production and processing hub, the next three days (14–16 April) are forecast to be very hot and mostly dry, with daytime highs around 42–44°C and warm nights near 24–26°C. This pattern is supportive for late storage and handling but raises risks of quality loss if on‑farm or warehouse ventilation is poor.

New Delhi is expected to see similarly hot, hazy conditions with maximum temperatures around 38–39°C today, rising to about 39–40°C by 16 April, and overnight lows in the mid‑20s. These conditions may stress transport workers and increase the need for careful loading and cooling practices but do not currently threaten standing crops.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Crop & stocks: The slightly larger verified Gujarat groundnut crop for 2024‑25 versus initial estimates underpins confidence that near‑term domestic availability is adequate, even as temperatures climb.
• Export competitiveness: External market analysis highlights that Indian peanut export prices remain competitive versus Brazil and other origins, aided by a still‑supportive currency and no major freight shocks in recent days.
• Macro & oilseed complex: Broader oilseed trade commentary from USDA indicates increased Indian participation in export flows, especially in rapeseed meal, reinforcing the narrative of an active crushing and export sector that indirectly supports groundnut utilisation and trade infrastructure.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook (3 Days)

Given stable fundamentals and the absence of fresh weather or policy shocks, Indian peanut prices are expected to remain in a tight range over the next three days, with a modestly firm bias in heat‑affected logistics hubs.

Region / Market	Product	Directional View (Next 3 Days)	Indicative Range (EUR/kg)
New Delhi (FOB/FCA)	Bold 40–70, Java 50–80	Sideways to slightly firm	≈ 0.93–1.12
Gujarat – Gondal (FOB/FCA)	Bold 40–60	Stable	≈ 0.92–0.99
Brazil (FOB)	Raw	Stable	≈ 1.03–1.07

💡 Trading Pointers

• Export buyers: Consider layering short‑term coverage at current Indian bold and java levels, as very hot weather and firm oilseed demand could offer moderate upside risk but no strong correction signal is visible.
• Indian sellers: With supplies comfortable but not burdensome, maintaining offers near the current EUR 0.92–1.20/kg band appears reasonable; only extreme heat‑related quality issues would justify aggressive price hikes.
• Spread & origin strategies: Monitor Brazil–India price differentials; with both origins essentially flat, freight and quality considerations rather than outright price gaps should drive origin selection.