Soybeans steady as crush complex firms and China premium widens

Soybean futures are trading broadly sideways with a slight upward bias, while soybean oil and meal show firmer gains on improved crush margins. Record South American supply and expanding US acreage cap the upside, but stronger exports and weather risks keep a floor under prices.

Across the complex, front CBOT soybean contracts around 1,165–1,180 USc/bu and modest gains in oil and meal indicate a balanced yet slightly supportive environment. Nearby soybean oil has added about 0.4–0.6% across the curve, while soybean meal is marginally higher for nearby months. Chinese physical offers remain at a premium to US FOB, underlining tightness in Asia even as Dalian futures have eased. US soybean exports in 2026 are recovering sharply from last year’s low base, and planting in the Midwest is ahead of average despite some storm-related delays. The market is oscillating between heavy South American supply and resilient demand from China and other Asian buyers.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

CBOT soybeans show a relatively flat nearby structure: May 2026 trades near 1,165 USc/bu, July around 1,180 USc/bu and November 2026 near 1,158 USc/bu, implying only modest carry into new crop. This follows a 0.4% weekly decline to 1,178.5 USc/bu by April 24, 2026, before a small rebound into April 27.

Soybean oil is slightly firmer along the curve, with May 2026 at about 72.3 USc/lb and a gentle downward slope towards roughly 58–59 USc/lb for late 2028–2029, indicating expectations of more comfortable oil balance longer term. Soybean meal nearby (May 2026) trades just above 325 USD/short ton, with a mild downward bias into late 2027–2028 around 310–315 USD/short ton, consistent with ample bean availability and record South American harvest prospects.

On the physical side, recent FOB offers converted to EUR (assuming roughly 1.08 USD/EUR) indicate: US No. 2 soybeans at about 0.55–0.56 EUR/kg, Chinese origin conventional beans near 0.68–0.70 EUR/kg and organic Chinese supply close to 0.75–0.77 EUR/kg. Indian origin remains the most expensive, near 0.90 EUR/kg, while Ukrainian beans are deeply discounted around 0.31–0.32 EUR/kg, reflecting ongoing logistical and risk premia.

Origin / Type	Last price (EUR/kg, FOB)	1-week change (EUR/kg)
US Soybeans No. 2	≈0.55	~0.00 (stable)
China yellow, non-organic	≈0.68	+0.01
China yellow, organic	≈0.77	+0.01
India sortex clean	≈0.90	~0.00
Ukraine (Odesa)	≈0.31	~0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Global supply remains heavy. Brazil is close to finishing a record soybean harvest, with national completion estimated above 95%, while Mato Grosso do Sul exceeds 94% harvested. U.S. acreage intentions point to 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations of strong new-crop supply.

On demand, US soybean exports in 2026 are up roughly 27% versus the previous year’s weak levels, driven primarily by renewed Chinese buying even as Brazil remains the dominant supplier. Chinese buyers are still paying a premium for nearby shipments relative to US futures, but domestic soybean meal demand is soft on weaker feed usage, trimming crush margins and tempering the upside for beans. Indian meal exports have dropped sharply, leaving more product at home and marginally easing regional tightness.

Speculative positioning has turned more constructive: CFTC data show managed money increasing net long exposure as front-month soybeans rallied from around 1,166 to 1,174 USc/bu over the April 17–21 period. However, overall open interest has been slipping in recent sessions, suggesting some reluctance to add directional exposure amid competing signals from crude oil, currencies and South American supply.

📊 Crush Complex & Fundamentals

The crush complex is providing important support. Soybean oil futures have outperformed beans, aided by higher crude oil prices and setbacks in US–Iran negotiations, which lifted the wider vegetable oil complex. Soybean oil’s share of the crush margin remains elevated by historical standards, keeping crushers incentivised to maintain high run rates.

Soybean meal is comparatively subdued but stable: nearby CBOT meal is around 325 USD/t with forward values near 311–314 USD/t. This reflects comfortable feed supplies and only moderate growth in global livestock herds. In China, DCE soybean meal futures and spot prices have softened, mirroring weaker feed demand and creating some headwinds for further bean price appreciation. Overall, crush margins remain positive, suggesting continued strong processing and a steady flow of oil and meal to the global market.

🌦 Weather & Short-Term Outlook

In the US, soybean planting is running ahead of the historical pace, especially in core states like Illinois, though recent storms in parts of the Midwest could temporarily slow fieldwork. For now, moisture profiles are broadly adequate, and no immediate, widespread weather threat is visible, limiting weather-risk premia in new-crop futures.

In South America, the 2025/26 harvest is largely complete, so short-term weather has little impact on production. The key risk is logistical: any disruption to Brazilian export flows or internal transport could briefly tighten nearby availability and support basis levels, but current reports point to normal seasonal flows. Taken together, the short-term fundamental picture is one of ample supply with selective regional tightness and modest, weather-related timing risks.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

• Producers: Consider scaling in additional new-crop hedges on rallies towards the upper end of the recent 1,180–1,200 USc/bu range, as expanding US acreage and record Brazilian supply argue against a sustained price breakout in the near term.
• Importers/Crushers: Maintain a staggered buying strategy; near-term dips in futures, combined with still-attractive crush margins, offer opportunities to extend coverage modestly into Q3–Q4 2026 without overcommitting.
• Speculators: Short-term bias is mildly constructive, but with open interest slipping and large South American stocks, favour tactical, range-bound strategies (buying breaks and selling rallies) rather than strong directional bets.

Over the next three trading days, CBOT soybean futures are likely to remain in a 1,155–1,185 USc/bu band, with a slight upward tilt if crude oil stays firm and Midwest planting delays intensify. Soybean oil should continue to outperform beans on energy-led support, while soybean meal is expected to trade sideways in a relatively tight range around current levels.