Tight Global Clove Supply Keeps Indian Prices in a Bullish Phase

Clove prices are moving sharply higher in India as a weather‑hit crop in Madagascar tightens global supply, keeping the near‑term outlook firmly bullish with limited downside risk.

Indian wholesale prices have jumped by around EUR 1.10–1.15 per kg in a short span, and traders see further upside toward EUR 9.30–9.90 per kg if import flows from major origins do not normalize soon.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Domestic clove prices in India have risen from roughly EUR 8.00–8.10 per kg to about EUR 9.10–9.20 per kg in recent weeks, reflecting a strong upward adjustment from tight supply. Current organic FOB New Delhi indications show whole cloves around EUR 9.64/kg and ground cloves near EUR 9.73/kg as of 25 April 2026, slightly above mid‑April levels and confirming a firm, mildly rising trend.

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1W Change (EUR/kg)	Last Update
Cloves, whole, organic	India	New Delhi, FOB	9.64	+0.04	25 Apr 2026
Cloves, ground, organic	India	New Delhi, FOB	9.73	+0.03	25 Apr 2026

The domestic rally is broadly in line with firming international values and elevated import costs, with only marginal week‑on‑week increases but a clear shift to a higher trading range compared with early April.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

The core driver is a weaker clove harvest in Madagascar, the world’s leading producer, where adverse weather has reduced crop arrivals and export availability. This has tightened global supply chains just as importing markets like India, which rely heavily on Madagascar and Indonesia, face reduced inflows and higher replacement costs. Recent assessments of South‑West Indian Ocean weather in early 2026 also highlight drought and cyclone impacts around Madagascar, underscoring production risks.

Other origins—Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Comoros—are not currently able to fully cover the gap, leaving the market structurally tight. On the demand side, underlying consumption in spice blends, food processing and medicinal uses remains stable despite the price rise, with only some bulk buyers scaling back to smaller, more tactical purchases in anticipation of continued volatility.

📊 Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Market sources report Indian wholesale clove prices increasing by close to EUR 1.10–1.15 per kg over a few weeks, a move amplified by higher import, freight and financing costs. Importers note that freight rates and currency fluctuations are raising landed prices, limiting the scope for meaningful downside even if global supply improves modestly. Broad commodity research for April 2026 points to slightly firmer agricultural raw material indices, consistent with a tighter environment in several niche spices.

India’s imports from Madagascar have weakened compared with typical seasonal patterns, confirming the shortfall in exportable surplus from the island. Customs‑based trade series updated in April 2026 show reduced volumes from Madagascar so far this year, in line with reports of smaller crops and disrupted logistics. Retail prices are also adjusting higher as traders pass on increased procurement costs to end buyers, but without yet triggering a visible demand destruction.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Origins

For Madagascar, the main 2025/26 cyclone season brought at least one intense cyclone making landfall, with associated flooding and infrastructure damage in clove‑relevant regions earlier in the year. Recent global hazard outlooks also flag persistent drought risks in parts of southern Madagascar, suggesting that soil moisture recovery may be uneven, which could constrain near‑term crop rehabilitation.

In Indonesia, climate bulletins for April 2026 indicate the onset of drier conditions in several zones, but not yet an extreme event, keeping supply potential broadly steady for now. Overall, the weather signal for cloves remains skewed slightly to the bearish side for production, reinforcing the current tightness rather than offering clear relief.

📆 Market Outlook & Price Bias

The near‑term outlook for cloves is clearly bullish. With global supply constrained by Madagascar’s weaker harvest and other origins unable to offer large additional volumes, India’s import dependence is translating into firm domestic prices and elevated basis levels. Market participants widely expect that, absent a surprise improvement in arrivals, wholesale prices could test the psychological EUR 9.80–10.00/kg zone in the coming weeks.

At the same time, stable end‑use demand acts as a floor under the market, while speculative and inventory‑management buying may further tighten availability ahead of festive and seasonal consumption peaks. Upside risks dominate: renewed weather disruptions in the South‑West Indian Ocean, higher freight or currency volatility, or unexpected policy interventions in key origins could all underpin additional price gains, whereas meaningful downside would likely require a clear, confirmed improvement in 2026/27 crop prospects.

🧭 Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• Importers & blenders: Consider securing a portion of Q2–Q3 needs at current levels via staggered purchases, as the risk of a push toward EUR 10/kg appears higher than the probability of a rapid correction.
• Large industrial users: Prioritize coverage for core specifications (whole and ground) and diversify origins where possible, but avoid over‑stocking given the possibility of some normalization if later‑season arrivals from Indonesia improve.
• Retailers & packers: Gradually adjust retail prices and pack sizes to pass on higher procurement costs while monitoring for any demand elasticity, especially in price‑sensitive segments.
• Producers in secondary origins: Use the current high price environment to forward‑plan investments in quality and traceability, as sustained tightness may support premiums into the next crop cycle.

📉 Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day View)

• India, New Delhi (FOB, whole, organic): Sideways to slightly up, around EUR 9.60–9.80/kg, with buying interest on minor dips.
• India, New Delhi (FOB, ground, organic): Firm bias, EUR 9.70–9.90/kg, supported by strong spice blend demand.
• Key import markets (EU, US, Middle East): Offers expected to edge higher in line with origin prices, with limited scope for meaningful downside over the next few days.