Vietnam Dried Guava FOB Hanoi Edges Up but Market Stays Calm

Vietnamese dried guava FOB Hanoi has inched higher but remains within a narrow, stable range as balanced local supply and steady export demand keep volatility low.

After several weeks of flat quotations, Vietnam’s dried guava prices at FOB Hanoi have firmed slightly while still trading comfortably inside the broader sideway band seen since March. Export sentiment for fruits and vegetables has improved with a sharp month‑on‑month rebound in March shipments, yet dried guava remains a niche item riding this overall uptrend rather than leading it. Weather in northern Vietnam around Hanoi is seasonally warm with localized thunderstorms but no severe events, supporting normal orchard operations and drying activity. In this context, price risks over the very short term look modest, with buyers and sellers content to transact close to current levels.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Trend

Recent indications for standard, non‑organic white dried guava, origin Vietnam, FOB Hanoi, point to a very mild firming compared with mid‑March but still within the previously established band of roughly €5.20–€5.30/kg. Using an approximate EUR/USD rate of 1.08 for cross‑checks where needed, the latest spot level near €5.27/kg implies virtually unchanged export parity versus earlier weeks, confirming a sideways to slightly firmer market.

Broader Vietnamese fruit markets have seen strong export performance in March, with the value of fruits and vegetables shipped abroad rebounding by more than 50% month‑on‑month after a weak February, according to preliminary customs data. This recovery underpins sentiment for processed niche fruits such as dried guava: exporters are under no pressure to discount aggressively, but neither is there evidence of a supply squeeze that would trigger a sharp rally.

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1–2 week change	Bias (next 3 days)
Dried guava, white, non‑organic	Vietnam	FOB Hanoi	€5.27	+0.4% (approx.)	Sideways / slightly firm

🌍 Supply, Demand & Export Context

Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector is currently characterized by robust export flows and ample domestic availability. Preliminary customs figures point to fruit and vegetable export values of about US$532 million in March 2026, up 51.6% from February, signalling strong external demand recovery after Lunar New Year disruptions. At the same time, reports from southern urban markets describe abundant fruit supplies and soft spot prices for several fresh varieties, reflecting a generally well‑supplied domestic market.

Dried guava is a small slice of this overall fruit complex but benefits from the same macro backdrop. Earlier in the season, trade commentary already highlighted FOB dried guava offers around €5.20–€5.30/kg, with no major weather or logistical shocks in northern Vietnam and adequate processing capacity. Recent data on fruit and vegetable imports into Vietnam also show a 19% month‑on‑month rise in March to about US$230 million, suggesting active two‑way trade and healthy throughput at ports and logistics nodes that handle both fresh and processed products. This context supports stable to mildly firmer dried guava pricing near Hanoi.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions (VN, Hanoi Focus)

Weather in Hanoi over the next three days is forecast to be seasonally warm and mostly cloudy, with scattered thunderstorms but no signs of damaging extremes. Today (3 May) is expected to see a thunderstorm in the area in the morning with otherwise cloudy conditions and temperatures around 28°C; 4 May should be mostly cloudy and less humid with highs near 27°C; 5 May looks hazy with highs around 30°C.

Such conditions are broadly favourable for fruit orchards and for small‑scale drying operations, even if intermittent showers may temporarily slow sun‑drying in some locations. There are no current reports of severe flooding, storms or cold snaps in northern Vietnam that would materially impact guava output or disrupt transport links around Hanoi. This reinforces the view that short‑term supply risk for dried guava remains low and that prices are unlikely to react to weather over the coming days.

📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

On the demand side, the main supportive factor is the broader rebound in Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports after a soft start to the year. The sharp March upswing followed large declines in January and February, particularly to China, showing that buyers are returning as post‑holiday inventories normalize. For dried guava, which is usually destined for niche retail snacks and ingredient blends, this environment reduces downside risk: exporters can place product into multiple outlets without needing to clear stocks at discounts.

On the supply side, national statistics for fruit production in Q1 2026 point to year‑on‑year increases across several major fruits (bananas, grapefruit, dragon fruit, mangoes and oranges), indicating that overall horticultural capacity is expanding. While guava is not specifically broken out, agronomic surveys and extension documents emphasize that guava — including Taiwanese varieties — adapts well across Vietnam and can be planted throughout the year, supporting flexible supply. With no major disease or weather shock reported, dried guava availability appears adequate.

📆 3‑Day Price Outlook (FOB Hanoi, VN)

Given stable fundamentals and benign weather, the near‑term price path for dried guava FOB Hanoi is expected to remain inside a tight band, with only minor intra‑day fluctuations driven by lot size, quality differentials and freight negotiations.

Date	Region / Port	Product	Expected range (EUR/kg, FOB)	Directional bias	Comment
2026‑05‑03	Hanoi, VN	Dried guava, white, non‑organic	€5.23 – €5.30	Sideways	Balanced supply and demand; no fresh weather or logistics shocks.
2026‑05‑04	Hanoi, VN	Dried guava, white, non‑organic	€5.23 – €5.32	Sideways / slightly firm	Support from strong export sentiment in wider fruit complex.
2026‑05‑05	Hanoi, VN	Dried guava, white, non‑organic	€5.23 – €5.33	Sideways / slightly firm	Benign weather and active trade flows keep bids near current levels.

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters / Processors: Use current stability around €5.25–€5.30/kg FOB as an opportunity to lock in short‑term contracts; upside potential over the next few days appears limited, but fundamentals do not justify discounting.
• International buyers: Consider gradually building positions at current levels, as benign weather and strong overall fruit export data argue against a near‑term price collapse; focus on quality specs and shipment windows rather than waiting for lower numbers.
• Traders: Expect narrow day‑to‑day price ranges; short‑term strategies should focus on basis, freight and currency moves rather than outright price volatility in dried guava itself.