Walnut Market Softens in India as Import Pressure Weighs on Prices

Indian walnut prices softened modestly last week, with both in-shell and kernel values easing as importer selling met lacklustre demand. The near-term outlook points to a soft-to-stable market, with limited upside until pre-festive stocking begins in late May.

The walnut complex in India is transitioning from a period of relative firmness to a more defensive tone. In-shell prices reportedly fell by around USD 0.11–0.21 per kg, while kernel prices slipped by roughly USD 0.11–0.27 per kg across grades as stockists stepped back and importers continued to offer material. Demand from bakery, confectionery and the wedding segment is now routine to weaker, leaving the market without a clear bullish trigger. Import flows from the US, Chile and China remain central to price formation, while domestic Kashmir-origin volumes are too small to shift the balance. Against this backdrop, current pricing offers a relatively stable window for forward coverage, especially for ingredient buyers in Europe and Asia.

📈 Prices & Market Mood

In India, in-shell walnut prices eased by approximately USD 0.11–0.21 per kg to about USD 3.62–6.07 per kg, while kernels retreated by roughly USD 0.11–0.27 per kg to around USD 8.14–14.10 per kg, depending on grade. This pullback follows several weeks of relative firmness and brings the market back to levels where end-users show more interest, but stockists remain cautious.

FOB offers for Chinese-origin walnut kernels have been broadly stable in recent days, with indicative levels around EUR 2.30–3.35 per kg for industrial pieces and quarters, while organic light halves from the US and India are offered nearer EUR 4.55–5.35 per kg. Converted back into Indian rupee terms, these levels remain competitive versus domestic Kashmir-origin in-shell, preserving the import arbitrage for kernels.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Supply into the Indian market is dominated by imports from the United States, Chile and China. California walnuts continue to command a premium in the in-shell gift pack segment, while Chilean and Chinese product mainly target the industrial kernel and ingredient market. Domestic production from the Kashmir Valley supplies a high-quality in-shell niche but is structurally insufficient to cover total consumption.

On the demand side, bakery and confectionery offtake is described as routine, with no seasonal spike in cake, biscuit or chocolate demand at this stage. The wedding season, which had been lending support to the broader dry fruit complex, is winding down, removing an important but temporary demand layer. Without this buffer, the market is more sensitive to importer selling and any incremental rise in available stocks.

📊 Fundamentals & External Factors

Globally, California — the largest walnut-exporting origin — is navigating variable orchard conditions, with the 2026 crop outlook still under assessment. Recent US crop bulletins indicate that walnut orchards are in bloom and leaf-out stages under generally seasonable conditions, without major weather alarms so far, suggesting no immediate supply shock on the horizon.

Chilean walnut production remains broadly stable, underpinning steady export availability into Asian destinations, including India. Chinese supply continues to focus on kernel pieces and industrial grades, where current FOB offers in EUR are stable week-on-week. Potential future tariff adjustments between India and the US — in the context of broader trade normalisation — could lower landed costs for US-origin walnuts, but this remains a medium-term rather than immediate driver.

🌦️ Weather Snapshot (Key Origins)

In California, current spring weather patterns are near-normal following an early warm spell, with no widespread frost or disease event reported in walnut areas over the past week. This points to a generally benign environment for the developing 2026 crop.

In Chile, the main walnut harvest window of March–April is closing under seasonally typical conditions, and there are no fresh reports of weather-related disruptions affecting export volumes to Asia. Overall, weather is not acting as a bullish catalyst for prices in the short term.

📆 Short-Term Outlook (2–3 Weeks)

• Price trend: Soft to stable, with downside cushioned by importer replacement costs and limited discounting appetite.
• Demand: Routine, with post-wedding-season slowdown and no immediate confectionery peak; institutional and bakery demand steady but unspectacular.
• Risks: Potential minor downside if importers continue to liquidate stocks into a thinly bid market; modest upside if any logistics or currency volatility raises replacement values.
• Next trigger: Pre-festive stocking, typically from late May, is expected to be the next meaningful demand impulse for Indian and export-linked trade.

💡 Trading & Procurement Guidance

• Indian buyers: Use the current soft tone to cover near-term kernel requirements selectively, especially for routine bakery and confectionery programs, while avoiding over-stocking ahead of late-May demand.
• European ingredient users: The present combination of soft Indian market sentiment and stable FOB offers from China and Chile supports staggered purchases rather than large one-off tenders.
• Stockists & traders: With limited near-term upside and no strong demand driver, a neutral-to-light long positioning is prudent until clearer signals emerge from pre-festive demand and California crop assessments.

📍 3-Day Indicative Outlook (Direction, EUR)

Market / Product	Current Indicative Level (EUR/kg)	3-Day Direction	Comment
CN walnut kernels, light pieces (FOB Dalian)	≈ 2.85	Sideways	Stable offers; no fresh demand shock.
CN walnut kernels, light amber pieces (FOB Dalian)	≈ 2.30	Sideways / slightly soft	Competitive industrial grades; buyers well supplied.
CN walnut kernels, light quarters (FOB Dalian)	≈ 3.35	Sideways	Premium over pieces intact; no strong buying wave.
Organic walnut kernels, light halves US/IN (FOB)	≈ 4.55–5.35	Sideways	Niche demand; offers steady, limited liquidity.