Almond Market Softens as Australian Harvest Pressures Indian Prices

Almond prices are easing in India as the Australian harvest adds to already comfortable global supply, while retail demand remains subdued. Importers are liquidating higher-priced stocks, putting buyers in a strong negotiating position and limiting any near‑term recovery.

Indian wholesale markets are reporting a gradual but clear downward drift in both whole almond kernels and almond giri, driven by active importer selling and only need‑based consumer buying at the retail level. At the same time, Australian supply is flowing into an already well‑supplied global market, reinforcing the bearish tone. European confectionery and nut ingredient buyers see improved procurement conditions, but the upside is likely capped until importer inventories are normalized and any counter‑support emerges from U.S. export demand in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices & Regional Differentials

In Delhi’s dry fruit market, California almond kernels have fallen by roughly USD 5.37–6.45 per 40 kg, now trading around USD 242.93–245.08 per 40 kg. Almond giri has eased to about USD 8.60–8.65 per kg, aligning with a broader softening across the dry fruit complex where alternative products like pista, abjosh and anjeer are also under pressure. The kirana trade shows similar weakness, with California almonds quoted at USD 220.38–247.22 per 40 kg and almond giri at USD 800–812 per quintal.

Converted into indicative euro levels (using approximate rates), the Delhi kernel range corresponds to roughly EUR 5.60–5.70 per kg, while almond giri trades near EUR 8.00–8.10 per kg. By contrast, recent export‑oriented offers indicate stable prices around EUR 6.6–6.7 per kg FAS/FOB for standard U.S. and Spanish kernel grades, suggesting that the most acute price pressure is currently visible in India’s wholesale and retail channels rather than at origin.

Market / Product	Specification	Price (EUR/kg)	Trend (4 weeks)
Delhi wholesale	California kernels (approx.)	5.60–5.70	⬇ softening
Delhi wholesale	Almond giri (peeled)	≈8.00–8.10	⬇ softening
Export offers (US)	Kernels, Carmel SSR 18/20, FAS	≈6.70	➡ stable
Export offers (ES)	Marcona kernels 12/14, FOB	≈6.60	➡ stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

The key driver of the current correction is the seasonal Australian almond harvest, whose arrival is now filtering into Indian import costs and therefore domestic prices. The Australian crop has improved versus last year, and while weather volatility raised some concerns on quality and yield, these issues have not been serious enough to materially restrict global supply. Recent industry and trade data confirm solid Australian export flows to China and India, underscoring that additional volume is reaching the market despite some localized harvest challenges.

On the demand side, Indian retail consumption at current price levels is described as need‑based rather than enthusiastic. Consumers are buying for specific cooking, gifting or festive requirements, but are not building discretionary stocks. This weak follow‑through demand means importers who bought earlier at higher prices are under pressure to liquidate stocks before further declines, reinforcing a buyer’s market. Globally, U.S. and Mediterranean origins continue to provide ample supply, while Australia’s counter‑seasonal shipments prevent any significant tightening.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Tone

Fundamentals currently point to a comfortable to slightly heavy global balance. Australian supply is ramping up into firm but not explosive demand from key markets, with India playing an important role yet showing softer day‑to‑day buying. Trade sources in India emphasize that importer selling has become more aggressive, with sellers willing to accept discounts to move volume. This has flattened the forward curve and limited any attempts at price recovery in the near term.

For value‑added users, almond giri prices are particularly important, as this peeled kernel is heavily used in confectionery, mithai production and premium food applications. The recent easing in giri suggests some margin relief for processors, although many remain cautious about forward coverage, preferring to buy in tranches rather than commit to large long‑dated positions while the market is still drifting lower.

🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather during the Australian growing season was mixed, with episodes of unpredictability that initially raised concerns over quality and yield. However, current harvest feedback suggests that while there may be pockets of downgraded quality, the overall supply volume is sufficient to keep the global market well covered. Recent reports from Australian industry bodies also point to resilient export demand, especially from China and India, even as producers navigate localized wet conditions and input‑cost uncertainties.

Looking ahead, attention will increasingly shift toward early indicators for the next California crop, but for the next one to two months the dominant story remains the flow of Australian product into Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Unless significant adverse weather hits California during critical development stages, the combination of Australian shipments and existing inventories should keep fundamentals comfortably supplied.

📆 2–4 Week Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Price direction: With importer liquidation ongoing and demand subdued, almond prices in India are likely to remain under mild downward to sideways pressure over the next two to four weeks, rather than staging a sharp rebound.
• Key trigger: The absorption speed of the Australian crop and any surprise strength in U.S. export demand will determine whether the market can stabilize or if another leg down is possible once stocks are fully visible.
• Inventory overhang: A more durable price recovery appears unlikely until importer inventories bought at higher levels are largely worked down and replaced with cheaper arrivals from the current harvest.

💡 Practical Guidance for Market Participants

• European confectionery & marzipan producers: Use the current softness to secure part of Q2–Q3 needs, especially for California and Australian kernels, but avoid over‑buying; stagger purchases to benefit from any further incremental declines.
• Indian importers: Prioritize inventory turnover and risk management over price expectations. Reducing high‑cost legacy stocks should take precedence over speculative holding in a buyer‑dominated market.
• Food manufacturers using almond giri: Consider extending coverage modestly at current eased levels to lock in improved crush and recipe margins, while keeping some flexibility for potential additional softness.

📍 3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Delhi wholesale (California kernels, EUR equivalent): Stable to slightly softer; discounts possible on volume parcels.
• India retail (almond giri, EUR equivalent): Mild downside bias as importer selling continues and consumer demand stays need‑based.
• Export parity (US/Spain kernels, EUR/kg): Around 6.6–6.7, largely stable with limited short‑term volatility expected.