India anchors global almond trade as shipments surge but buyers stay cautious

India’s role as the largest importer of U.S. almonds is tightening global trade balances, with strong March shipments and mostly sold supply supporting stable to slightly firmer prices despite cautious buying.

Robust export demand, led by India and Europe, contrasts with weaker U.S. domestic offtake, leaving the almond market balanced but sensitive to shipment performance, currency moves and weather in California and Mediterranean origins. With about 75% of the current 2.7 billion pound crop already sold and India’s consumption base expanding, prices are underpinned even as many buyers stick to hand‑to‑mouth coverage.

📈 Prices

Indicative kernel prices are broadly steady compared with late March, reflecting strong exports but still‑cautious buying. U.S. Carmel SSR kernels (FAS Washington D.C.) are quoted around EUR 6.70/kg for 18/20 and EUR 6.65/kg for 20/22, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 trades near EUR 9.32/kg. Spanish material sits in a similar to slightly lower range for standard kernels, with Valencia types around EUR 5.55–5.90/kg and Marcona mostly between EUR 6.60 and 8.85/kg FOB Madrid.

The flat price structure over recent weeks suggests that the market is digesting strong shipment data without shifting into a clear bull phase. With three‑quarters of the U.S. crop already sold and logistics flows running smoothly, downside appears limited near term, but further price gains will likely need confirmation of sustained export strength and benign new‑crop weather.

Product	Origin	Term	Price (EUR/kg)
Almond kernels, Carmel SSR 18/20	US	FAS Washington D.C.	6.70
Almond kernels, Carmel SSR 20/22	US	FAS Washington D.C.	6.65
Almond kernels, Nonpareil 27/30, organic	US	FOB Washington D.C.	9.32
Almond kernels, Marcona 12/14	ES	FOB Madrid	6.60
Almond kernels, Valencia 12/14	ES	FOB Madrid	5.55

🌍 Supply & Demand

March U.S. almond shipments reached about 258 million pounds, up 17% year on year, underscoring a strong finish to the first half of the crop year. Exports were the main driver, rising more than 21% and absorbing a large share of available supply. India imported roughly 39.2 million pounds in March alone and about 252 million pounds cumulatively this season, slightly below last year but still firmly securing its position as the top buyer.

European destinations are also active, rebuilding pipeline stocks amid stable downstream demand, while shipments to the Middle East remain steady despite ongoing trade route disruptions. In contrast, exports to China and Hong Kong have fallen sharply, reflecting weaker demand and some substitution towards alternative origins such as Australia. Global consumption continues to be supported by the structural trend toward healthy snacks and plant‑based protein, with India’s expanding middle class and food processing sector driving particularly resilient almond use in confectionery and bakery.

📊 Fundamentals

On the supply side, U.S. crop receipts are aligned with an estimated 2.7 billion pound crop. Industry estimates suggest around 75% of this volume is already sold, tightening the pool of uncommitted stocks and giving sellers some confidence. Still, domestic shipments in the U.S. lag, and many buyers globally are reluctant to build large inventories, preferring short‑term coverage in a high‑rate, uncertain macro environment.

Recent position data show that export strength is gradually closing the seasonal shipment gap even as some traditional markets underperform. India’s slight year‑on‑year decline in cumulative imports is more a normalization from exceptionally strong seasons than a sign of structural weakness. Meanwhile, Europe’s steady interest reflects regular industrial demand rather than speculative stock building, which helps cap volatility but also limits the potential for a sharp rally.

🌦️ Weather & Growing Conditions

Weather risks remain a key watchpoint as the Northern Hemisphere crop develops. In California, snowpack levels in key watersheds remain well below median for early April, keeping attention on irrigation availability, though recent and forecasted systems bring some moisture and cooler conditions. Disease forecasts highlight localized risk periods, but no widespread threat has yet emerged for the orchards.

In Mediterranean origins such as Spain, the critical bloom and nut‑set period is largely past, and no major disruptive weather has been reported recently. Overall, current information points to a broadly normal production outlook, meaning that pricing will be more sensitive to demand shifts and currency moves than to immediate supply shocks, barring late frost or heat events.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Importers in India and the Middle East: With strong March shipments and about 75% of the U.S. crop sold, spot and nearby prices are likely to stay supported. Maintain regular coverage on dips rather than waiting for a significant correction that may not materialize if export momentum persists.
• European buyers: Given steady consumption and balanced supply, extending coverage modestly into the new quarter appears prudent, especially for premium grades such as Nonpareil and Marcona, where availability could tighten first.
• Producers and handlers: The combination of firm export demand, weaker domestic sales and cautious buyer behavior argues for disciplined offer levels. Consider incremental sales on rallies but avoid over‑discounting remaining unsold volumes while weather and shipment data remain supportive.

📍 Short-Term Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• US export basis (kernels, FAS/FOB): Prices expected to hold broadly steady in EUR terms, with a slight upward bias if additional strong shipment data or supportive currency moves appear.
• Spanish origin (FOB Mediterranean): Sideways to mildly firmer, especially for Marcona and higher‑spec Guara, as European processors continue routine replenishment.
• Asia-bound imports (CIF main ports): Stable to slightly firmer indications in EUR, reflecting India’s sustained buying interest and limited appetite among sellers for deeper discounts.