Wheat prices retreat as European old crop comes under renewed pressure

Profit-taking and improved weather prospects have triggered a notable setback in wheat prices, with European old-crop contracts under the most pressure, even as weather damage in the US southern Plains limits the downside.

Wheat markets have shifted to a softer tone this week. On Euronext, the front-month May contract closed below EUR 190/t for the first time in three months, while German cash quotes for bread wheat in Hamburg have fallen back to around EUR 196/t, levels last seen in February. Feed wheat in South Oldenburg is more resilient at roughly EUR 203/t, but large unsold volumes from the 2025 crop continue to weigh on the domestic balance. At the same time, export interest for EU soft wheat has picked up, partially offsetting bearish signals from weather and macro markets.

📈 Prices & Market Mood

European wheat prices corrected sharply on Tuesday as traders took profits after the recent rally and weather maps turned more favourable for much of Europe. The Euronext May wheat contract slipping back below EUR 190/t marks a psychological break, reinforcing the perception that old-crop supply remains ample. In Germany, bread wheat (B-quality) in Hamburg at about EUR 196/t and feed wheat in South Oldenburg at around EUR 203/t underline the current discounting pressure on milling grades.

Physical export offers confirm this softer tone. Recent FOB quotations in Europe and the Black Sea show French 11% protein wheat around EUR 270/t FOB and Ukrainian 11–12.5% protein wheat between roughly EUR 170–180/t FOB Odesa and EUR 230–250/t FCA inland, indicating a competitive Black Sea floor under the market but little immediate price momentum in either direction.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather

Near-term, supply pressure is dominated by substantial volumes from the 2025 European harvest that are still unpriced. These remaining stocks are expected to overhang local markets in the coming weeks, limiting any price recovery in old crop despite improving export interest. EU soft wheat exports so far this season have reached about 19.72 million tonnes, with weekly loadings recently accelerating from 270,000 t to 440,000 t. Germany contributes around 1.76 million tonnes, up 100,000 t on the week, signalling modestly better foreign demand for EU origin.

Weather is sending mixed signals. In Europe and the US, further rainfall is forecast in the coming days. Timely precipitation in Central Europe is improving prospects for the new crop and could support above-average yield potential if conditions persist. By contrast, prolonged drought in the southern US Plains appears to have caused lasting damage. In Oklahoma, winter wheat output is now estimated at only 47.8 million bushels, roughly half of last year’s 106 million bushels, with yields seen at 23.1 bushels per acre versus 38 bushels per acre in the USDA’s 2025 final figures. Similar conditions in neighbouring Kansas represent an important upside risk for global Hard Red Winter (HRW) supply later in the season.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

Despite clear production stress in parts of the US HRW belt, futures in Kansas – the benchmark for Hard Red Winter wheat – also closed weaker on Tuesday, though losses remained smaller than on the Chicago soft wheat market. This divergence suggests that the market is currently more focused on comfortable global supplies and European weather improvements than on regional US damage. It also indicates that the structural tightness in protein-rich HRW wheat is not yet fully priced in.

Macro markets added pressure. Crude oil prices eased after recent spikes related to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, as signs of slightly improved tanker movements and expectations of higher non-Gulf supply led to a pullback in Brent benchmarks. Recent reports put Brent around EUR 103–105/t-equivalent (roughly USD 110 per barrel), down from last week’s highs as US naval escorts enabled some ships to leave the Persian Gulf. The softer energy complex trickled through to freight and biofuel-linked demand expectations, modestly reinforcing the bearish tone in grains.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Strategy

• Producers (EU): With old-crop prices back below key technical levels and heavy unsold stocks still in the pipeline, incremental sales on price rebounds rather than at current levels appear prudent. Consider pricing portions of the 2025/26 crop on rallies triggered by US weather headlines or renewed oil price spikes.
• Consumers (feed and flour mills): The current dip offers an opportunity to extend coverage modestly into Q3, particularly for bread wheat in regions where basis levels have softened. However, leave flexibility for later additions in case US HRW losses deepen or Black Sea logistics tighten.
• Traders: Watch the spread between European milling wheat and Black Sea origins; competitive Ukrainian FOB values cap upside for EU exporters but also establish a floor. Volatility around US crop tours and Middle East energy developments is likely to create short-lived pricing windows on both sides of the market.

📍 3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

Market	Current Level*	3-Day Bias
Euronext Wheat (front month)	< EUR 190/t	Slightly lower to sideways – pressured by old-crop stocks and better EU weather
German Hamburg B-wheat (cash)	≈ EUR 196/t	Sideways – demand steady, but ample supply caps upside
German South Oldenburg feed wheat	≈ EUR 203/t	Sideways to slightly lower – resilient but not immune to futures weakness
US HRW wheat (Kansas futures, EUR/t equiv.)	Softening but above Chicago	Sideways – drought premium vs. global supply comfort in balance

*Indicative levels converted to EUR where necessary; not official settlement prices.