Hazelnut Prices Ease but Stabilise: Turkey–Georgia Spread Widens

Hazelnut kernel prices from Turkey and Georgia are consolidating after a sharp correction in late March, with Turkish FOB offers slightly firmer this week while Georgian-origin kernels in EU warehouses drift lower. The price spread between Turkish and Georgian material has widened again, reflecting quality premiums and still-firm EU snack and confectionery demand.

Hazelnut trading remains largely buyer-driven, with international demand described as weak in volume terms and buyers still negotiating aggressively on forward cover. At the same time, unit export prices from Turkey have stayed relatively resilient, helped by quality differentials and a firmer position in value-added processing. Weather in both the Turkish Black Sea and western Georgia is currently seasonally mild with no fresh frost events reported over the last few days, keeping short‑term crop fears in check and allowing the market to focus on demand, currency and logistics rather than immediate production shocks.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and expressed in EUR/kg, using recent commercial offers and indicative wholesale levels.

Origin	Product	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1‑week change
Turkey (TR)	Natural kernels 11–13 mm	Istanbul, FOB	≈ 8.33	+1%
Turkey (TR)	Natural kernels 13–15 mm	Istanbul, FOB	≈ 8.81	+0.8%
Turkey (TR)	Roasted, diced / meal	Istanbul, FOB	≈ 6.90–7.90	−4% to −7%
Georgia (GE)	Natural kernels 11–13 mm	Warsaw, FCA	≈ 10.95	−1.2%
Georgia (GE)	Natural kernels 13–15 mm	Warsaw, FCA	≈ 11.40	−0.9%
Georgia (GE)	Kernels 15+ mm	Warsaw, FCA	≈ 11.65	−0.4%

Indicative B2B export listings from Turkey for premium hazelnut kernels today broadly align with this range, with spot prices clustering in the mid‑single‑digit EUR/kg on an FOB basis depending on calibre and processing. The notable feature is the widening premium of Georgian kernels delivered into the EU over Turkish FOB values, reflecting both logistics and a quality/brand premium in some confectionery segments.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, historically accounting for around 70% of world hazelnut exports, with the EU taking roughly two‑thirds of its external sales. Recent export statistics from late March show Turkish hazelnut export volumes down almost 50% year‑on‑year in the current 2025/26 season, even as total export value has held up better, implying firmer unit prices but weaker physical offtake.

European confectionery demand is described as stable but not aggressively expanding; investment continues in nut processing and value‑added capacity, but buyers are cautious on raw material cover and remain highly price‑sensitive. This is consistent with the current price structure: Turkish raw and semi‑processed hazelnut offers have eased from last year’s peaks but are no longer collapsing, while Georgian material – supported by government subsidy programmes and ongoing orchard rehabilitation – holds a firm premium into EU destinations.

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook (TR, GE)

Over the last few days, weather in key Turkish Black Sea hazelnut regions has been seasonally mild, with no reports of fresh frost or severe storms directly impacting orchards. Regional weather data for early April instead highlights broader windstorm activity affecting parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, including Turkey, but without specific new damage signals for hazelnuts.

In western Georgia’s hazelnut belt (Samegrelo, Guria), recent conditions have been relatively cool and wetter than normal but again without reports of acute frost events in the last 72 hours; local commentary focuses more on unusual temperature patterns than on crop loss. With the critical early‑spring frost window now largely passed and no new incidents reported, near‑term production risk appears limited, helping to cap upside in spot prices for now.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export volumes vs. prices: Turkish export data show steep volume declines but comparatively resilient export values, confirming that price, not quantity, is the main adjustment variable in the current season.
• EU demand: Confectionery and snack manufacturers in Europe continue to require high‑quality kernels but are stretching coverage and blending origins, maintaining stable but unspectacular demand for both Turkish and Georgian hazelnuts.
• Georgian policy support: Georgia has lifted its hazelnut subsidy budget to 23 million GEL in 2025, signalling continued structural support for yield and quality improvements and reinforcing its role as a premium secondary origin.
• Competition among origins: Major buyers such as Ferrero are steadily diversifying sourcing beyond Turkey toward Italy, the US and Chile, which structurally limits Turkey’s pricing power on the margin and supports interest in Georgian and other non‑Turkish origins.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• Short‑term bias (next 3 days): With no new weather shock and muted spot demand, Turkish FOB kernel prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms, while Georgian FCA prices in EU warehouses may edge marginally lower on lacklustre nearby buying.
• For buyers: Consider layering in limited nearby cover for Turkish natural kernels where prices have already corrected sharply from March highs, but keep flexibility on size and processing form to capture discounts in roasted and diced material.
• For sellers: Turkish exporters should be prepared for continued negotiation pressure, especially on larger calibres, while Georgian suppliers can still defend a quality premium but may need to offer small tactical discounts on forward positions to stimulate volume.

Region	Market	Product	3‑day Outlook (EUR/kg)	Direction
TR	Istanbul FOB	Natural kernels 11–13 / 13–15 mm	≈ 8.2–8.9	Stable to −1%
TR	Istanbul FOB	Roasted, diced / meal	≈ 6.8–7.8	Stable
GE	EU (Warsaw FCA)	Natural kernels 11–15+ mm	≈ 10.9–11.7	Stable to −0.5%

Overall, the hazelnut market is entering a consolidation phase where demand and trade flows, rather than weather shocks, will set the tone. Absent a surprise in new‑crop expectations or macro sentiment, near‑term price volatility should remain contained.