Raisin prices steady to firm as India faces heat and Turkey stays stable

Raisin prices are broadly steady to mildly firmer, with Turkish sultanas up on FOB basis and Indian grades mixed but edging higher on FCA terms. Weather in the Indian grape–raisin belt is turning hotter and drier, while Turkey’s key sultana regions currently face no acute weather stress. Short‑term price risk tilts slightly to the upside, especially for higher grades and clean specs.

The global raisin market enters mid‑April with limited harvest pressure and relatively balanced trade flows. Turkey continues to anchor export pricing in sultanas, while India’s raisin sector is watching a developing heatwave pattern in western and central India that could influence remaining fresh grape handling, drying conditions and storage quality. At the same time, broader agri markets in India are under pressure from weak prices in several crops, which may slow selling and lend some support to raisins as growers look for better realizations. Logistics remain broadly normal, so near‑term pricing is driven more by local weather, grower selling behaviour and currency.

📈 Prices & Market Moves

• Turkey (TR, Malatya – sultanas): Conventional sultanas have moved higher on FOB terms in the latest quotes. Type 9 grade A is up roughly 8–9% vs late March, and type 8 and 10 have also firmed modestly. CIF values into Europe are stable, indicating exporters are capturing part of the move in margins.
• India (IN, New Delhi – raisins): FOB prices for black and brown grades are marginally lower than late March, while golden remains stable to slightly easier. However, FCA offers for the same grades have ticked higher, suggesting tighter nearby supply and firmer local replacement costs despite softer export parity.
• Other origins into EU: Chinese and Chilean raisins delivered into Northwest Europe are fractionally softer than late March, remaining at a discount to Turkish sultanas. African feed‑grade raisins are also slightly weaker, reflecting ample low‑quality supply and subdued feed demand.

Origin / Grade	Term	Latest level (EUR/kg)	1–3 week trend
TR sultanas type 9, grade A	FOB Malatya	≈ 2.35–2.55	Firming
TR sultanas type 10, grade A	FOB Malatya	≈ 2.65–2.85	Firming
IN golden raisins, grade AA	FOB / FCA New Delhi	≈ 2.25–2.35	Sideways
IN brown raisins, grade AA	FOB / FCA New Delhi	≈ 1.80–2.50	Mixed (FOB soft, FCA firm)
IN black raisins, grade AA	FOB / FCA New Delhi	≈ 1.75–2.05	Mixed (FOB soft, FCA firm)
TR sultanas, EU delivered	FCA NL/DE	≈ 2.80–2.90	Flat to slightly softer

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather (IN, TR)

India (IN)

• Weather: IMD and private forecasts indicate a broad heatwave across much of central and western India, including Maharashtra and adjoining regions, lasting at least until April 20, with temperatures frequently above seasonal norms and exceeding 40°C in several districts. Dry conditions are expected to persist with minimal rainfall.
• Implications for raisins: The hot, dry spell is generally favourable for drying and storage conditions for remaining grape lots and raisins, lowering immediate mould and spoilage risk. However, sustained heat raises warehouse quality‑risk if ventilation is poor, nudging buyers toward better‑handled, higher‑spec product.
• Farmer selling behaviour: Broader horticultural markets in western and southern India are experiencing price stress in crops such as banana and other fruits, pushing many growers into distress. Combined with weak prices in other commodities, this may encourage raisin growers to hold back stock where financially possible, modestly tightening near‑term availability of higher grades.

Turkey (TR)

• Weather: No major adverse weather events have been reported for the main Turkish sultana regions over the past few days in mainstream news feeds. Conditions are broadly seasonal in western and central Turkey, with no fresh frost or excessive rain headlines through mid‑April.
• Supply tone: With the old‑crop already largely committed, exporters retain reasonable pricing power, particularly in popular type 9 and 10 grades. The lack of weather scare in the new‑season vineyards keeps buyers relatively calm but removes any strong bearish driver from the supply side.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Currency & macro: The Indian rupee and Turkish lira remain relatively range‑bound versus the euro in recent days, so FX is not the dominant price driver at present. Modest lira weakness still supports Turkish export competitiveness in EUR terms.
• Competing crops in India: Expectations of a below‑normal 2026 monsoon are creating concerns around future output for pulses and oilseeds, which could lift broader food inflation. While not directly raisin‑specific, this reduces incentive for authorities to aggressively depress prices in value‑added horticulture segments.
• Substitute dried fruits & nuts: In the wider nut and dried fruit complex, India’s cashew market is described as seasonally soft but stable, with adequate supply and only mild upside risk from freight. This keeps cross‑commodity substitution neutral for now; raisins neither face strong competition nor receive much spill‑over support from sharply rising alternatives.

📆 Short-Term Outlook (3–5 days)

• India (IN): Continued hot, dry weather in Maharashtra and neighbouring grape belts is likely over the next 3–5 days, with IMD forecasting persistent heatwave conditions up to at least April 20. This should keep quality concerns contained, support premiums for clean, well‑stored lots and mildly underpin FCA/spot prices, even if FOB export offers remain competitive.
• Turkey (TR): With no fresh weather shocks and old‑crop pipeline relatively set, Turkish raisin prices are expected to remain steady to marginally firmer, especially for higher grades and smaller, prompt positions. Buyers may see limited discounting in the very short term.

💡 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers in Europe / Middle East: Cover near‑term needs in Turkish sultanas type 9 and 10 on any small dips; the recent firming and stable weather suggest limited downside in the next few weeks. Consider partial forward coverage into early summer for premium grades.
• Indian buyers/exporters: Use the current heat‑supported quality window to clean up physical positions and lock in margins on FCA sales. FOB markets may stay competitive, but underlying local firmness implies that aggressive under‑pricing could quickly erode returns.
• Industrial users (bakery, snacks): For recipe‑grade raisins, current levels across India and Turkey remain historically reasonable. Stagger purchases over the coming weeks rather than front‑loading, but avoid being entirely uncovered given emerging weather and monsoon‑related macro risks.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• India (IN, New Delhi basis – all major grades): EUR‑denominated prices are expected to trade steady to slightly firmer over the next three days, supported by hot, dry weather and cautious farmer selling.
• Turkey (TR, Malatya basis – sultanas type 8/9/10): Prices are likely to remain stable with a mild upward bias, particularly for higher grades and nearby shipment slots.