Canadian Dry Peas Face Short-Term Pressure but Medium-Term Upswing

Canada’s dry pea market is moving through a phase of heavy supplies and subdued prices in 2025–26, but the balance is set to tighten and support firmer values into 2026–27. Export demand from China and other key buyers is improving, while planted area is expected to fall next year, pointing to a gradual transition from oversupply toward a more balanced market.

Global pea flows are currently shaped by large Canadian and Black Sea supplies, steady but price-sensitive demand in Asia, and flat spot prices in key export hubs. Canadian exports are projected to accelerate after a slow start to the season, helped by policy support in China and ample carry-out stocks. In the medium term, shrinking Canadian acreage and more normal stock levels should underpin a modest recovery in average prices.

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📈 Prices

Farm-gate pea prices in Canada remain relatively soft versus last year, reflecting high supplies and a sluggish first half of the season. Green pea prices in Saskatchewan were broadly stable in February, while yellow peas posted only a modest gain of about EUR 13–15 per tonne equivalent, signaling selective demand rather than a broad rally.

Export-origin prices confirm this subdued tone. Recent indications show Ukrainian yellow peas around EUR 270/t and green peas near EUR 350/t FCA Odesa, with values broadly flat in recent weeks despite some regulatory tailwinds and stable export flows. In the UK, dried green peas are offered around EUR 1,020/t FOB London and marrowfat peas near EUR 1,330/t, both unchanged over recent updates, underlining a generally sideways price pattern.

Origin / Type	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Latest Price (EUR/t)
Peas dried, green	GB, London, FOB	1.02	1,020
Peas dried, marrowfat	GB, London, FOB	1.33	1,330
Peas dried, yellow	UA, Odesa, FCA	0.27	270
Peas dried, green	UA, Odesa, FCA	0.35	350

🌍 Supply & Demand

Canada is the central driver in the global dry pea balance for 2025–26. Exports are projected near 2.5–2.7 million tonnes, with China and India remaining the key destinations. The easing of Chinese import duties on Canadian dry peas is a major supportive factor, improving Canadian competitiveness and likely lifting shipments over the remainder of the marketing year.

In the August–December period, Canadian exports reached roughly 1.13 million tonnes, slightly below last year and trailing the five-year average. Record or near-record carry-out stocks, created by strong yields in Western Canada, are cushioning the impact of this slow start and allow exporters to respond quickly as demand improves. Rising shipments to China and continued buying from the United States should help clear inventories, though India’s crop size remains a critical swing factor for incremental demand.

Globally, the supply picture is further loosened by a projected 9% increase in U.S. dry pea output in 2024–25, driven by better yields and acreage expansion. This adds competitive pressure in some markets but also confirms that pulses remain in structural demand growth, particularly for feed and plant-protein uses. At the same time, Ukraine and other Black Sea origins are offering competitively priced peas, widening buyers’ origin choices and keeping a lid on any sharp short-term price spikes.

📊 Fundamentals & Stocks

For 2025–26, Canada enters the season with historically high stocks, especially for yellow peas, after strong yields in Western Canada. These burdensome inventories have kept prices subdued even as export projections climb, and earlier-month exports lagged the five-year norm. The combination of comfortable stocks and slow movement has been the main headwind for any sustained price recovery so far.

Looking ahead to 2026–27, the supply profile is set to change. Canadian farmers are expected to cut dry pea area to about 1.25 million hectares as they rotate into other crops in response to heavy carry-over. Production is forecast around 2.95 million tonnes, slightly below the prior year. With exports projected near 2.7 million tonnes in 2025–26 and carry-out stocks seen falling toward 1.0 million tonnes, the market is gradually moving from surplus toward a more balanced position, creating the foundation for firmer average prices in the next marketing year.

🌦 Weather & External Drivers

Weather conditions in the Canadian Prairies are an important short-term factor. Recent patterns point to persistent cold air and an active storm track, which have improved soil moisture compared with last year’s drought but could complicate early spring fieldwork if cool temperatures linger. For peas, adequate moisture is positive for yield potential, but any significant seeding delays could shift marginal area decisions toward other crops.

Beyond Canada, weather in the U.S. Northern Plains and Black Sea region remains a background risk but, for now, global pea availability looks comfortable after strong 2025 harvests. In importing regions, broader input-cost trends—such as lower fertilizer and stable fuel prices—help maintain producers’ margins and reduce the urgency of price rationing on the consumer side, indirectly reinforcing the current moderate price environment for pulses.

📆 Market & Price Outlook

Near term (coming weeks), pea prices are expected to remain largely range-bound. Large Canadian and Black Sea supplies, combined with only gradually improving export flows, suggest limited upside, especially for yellow peas, where stocks are most burdensome. Any price strength is likely to be measured and focused on specific qualities or logistics advantages rather than a broad-market rally.

From late 2025 into 2026–27, fundamentals look more supportive. Lower Canadian seeded area and a normalization of stock levels should tighten the balance, especially if India’s pulse harvest underperforms or if Chinese demand remains robust under the more favorable tariff framework. Under this scenario, average pea prices are expected to strengthen modestly, with green peas and higher-quality lots likely to lead gains as buyers compete for limited premium supply.

🧭 Trading Recommendations

• Producers in Canada: Consider incremental forward sales on rallies for 2025–26 old-crop peas to manage large stocks, while retaining some exposure to potential demand surprises from China and India.
• Importers in Europe and MENA: Use current flat and relatively low Ukrainian and Canadian prices to secure short- to medium-term coverage, especially for yellow peas, before any tightening related to lower 2026–27 plantings.
• Feed and plant-protein buyers: Evaluate pea inclusion in rations and formulations while prices are subdued; medium-term tightening suggests that today’s levels may represent a value-buying window.
• Risk management: Monitor India’s pulse crop performance and Canadian seeding/weather closely, as negative surprises on either front could quickly shift sentiment from oversupply to normalization.

📍 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Western Canada export basis (EU-equivalent, EUR/t): Sideways to slightly firmer; modest support from improving export interest but capped by large stocks.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, FCA Odesa, EUR/t): Mostly stable; yellow peas around 270 and green peas near 350 expected to hold within a narrow range in the next few days.
• UK (FOB London, EUR/t): Sideways; green peas near 1,020 and marrowfat around 1,330 with limited immediate catalysts for sharp moves.

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