Almond Markets Hold Firm as Exports Lead and Weather Stays Supportive

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US are broadly stable, with tight organic supply and firm export demand preventing any meaningful downside for now. Short‑term price risk tilts slightly upward, especially for premium Spanish and organic US grades, as shipments remain strong and weather in key growing regions is benign.

Global almond trade is entering the second half of the 2025/26 marketing year with California exports running ahead of last season and Spanish supply structurally larger but well absorbed in Europe. Recent data show March shipments from California up double digits year‑on‑year, led by export demand into Europe and Asia, which is helping to work down inventories even as domestic US demand stays softer. In Spain, a much improved production base and strong intra‑EU trade flows underpin the role of Spanish origins as a price reference, while warm, settled weather in Andalusia and favorable conditions in California support crop development in the near term.

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📈 Prices & Differentials

Indicative kernel prices converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR) for 17 April 2026 show a flat market week‑on‑week in both Spain (FOB Madrid) and the US (FAS/FOB Washington D.C.). Spanish conventional Valencia industrial types cluster around the mid‑EUR 5/kg mark, while Marcona and Guara command clear premiums. US Carmel SSR sits slightly above mainstream Spanish industrial prices, with a further premium for Nonpareil and for organics.

Origin	Product	Grade / Type	Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change
US	Almonds kernels	Carmel SSR 18/20	FAS	≈ 6.25	Stable
US	Almonds kernels	Carmel SSR 20/22	FAS	≈ 6.20	Stable
US	Almonds kernels	Nonpareil 27/30, organic	FOB	≈ 8.70	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Valencia 10/12	FOB	≈ 5.20	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Valencia 12/14	FOB	≈ 5.15	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Valencia >14 mm	FOB	≈ 5.50	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Guara S/14	FOB	≈ 5.70	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Marcona 12/14	FOB	≈ 6.15	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Marcona 14/16	FOB	≈ 7.65	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Marcona S/16	FOB	≈ 8.25	Stable
ES	Almond kernels	Nonpareil 27/30, organic	FOB	≈ 10.65	Stable

Retail anecdotes in the US confirm that consumer‑level almond prices remain high and sticky, with buyers reporting difficulty finding promotions at earlier discount levels, which is consistent with firm underlying kernel values despite ample global supply.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

California remains the key driver of global fundamentals. The latest position data indicate March 2026 shipments at 258 million pounds, up 16.5% year‑on‑year, with exports up 21% and running 3% ahead of last season’s pace. This export‑led strength continues the pattern from earlier in the year, where domestic US offtake lagged but overseas demand kept total movement broadly balanced.

On the supply side, global projections compiled by industry sources show relatively stable crops for 2025/26 in major origins, with US output around 1.2 million tonnes and Spain near 105,000 tonnes of kernel equivalent in the latest outlook, implying comfortable but not excessive availability. The combination of strong exports and only moderate production growth suggests inventories are trending lower, especially in California, where earlier burdensome stocks are being worked down.

In Spain, structural expansion of almond acreage in recent years and improved yields after previous drought‑hit campaigns have lifted the country’s role as the EU’s dominant producer and a significant exporter. Nevertheless, domestic and intra‑EU demand have also grown, and trade statistics show Spain running a substantial export surplus while still importing Californian kernels for blending and processing, underscoring the integrated nature of the transatlantic almond market.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

Near‑term weather in California’s almond belt is supportive. Forecasts for 18–20 April 2026 call for mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with daytime highs around 19–25°C and cool nights, favoring nut set and early development without acute heat or frost stress. With bloom largely completed earlier in the season, the current pattern is neutral‑to‑positive for yield potential.

In Spain, particularly Andalusia and other southern producing regions, the next three days are expected to be very warm, with highs close to 29–30°C and mild nights under partly cloudy skies. After several years of hydrological stress, such warm but non‑extreme mid‑April conditions are generally favorable for vegetative growth, though they maintain upward pressure on irrigation demand where water resources remain structurally tight.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

Fundamental balances suggest a cautiously constructive backdrop. Industry data point to world total supply in 2025/26 only slightly higher than in 2024/25, while projected ending stocks remain relatively elevated in the US but stable‑to‑lower in other origins, including Spain. California’s strong March shipments signal that buyers remain responsive to current price levels, particularly in export channels, helping to chip away at surplus inventories.

At the same time, earlier reports highlighted softness in US domestic consumption and some hesitancy in forward commitments, which keeps growers and handlers sensitive to any slowdown in export bookings. In Europe, demand has cooled somewhat from the 2023 peak but remains underpinned by the region’s structural use of almonds in confectionery and snacks, with Spain accounting for the bulk of EU production and consumption. Overall sentiment is balanced: no clear shortage, but limited appetite to discount further given higher costs and slimmer margins along the supply chain.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias: Neutral to slightly firmer over the coming week as export demand stays strong and weather remains non‑threatening in both California and Spain.
• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Consider covering near‑term needs for premium Spanish Marcona/Guara and US Nonpareil grades, where premiums over industrial kernels are likely to hold or widen modestly if export flows stay robust.
• Growers and handlers: With improving shipment data, there is room to resist aggressive discounting on standard grades; targeted offers on smaller sizes or off‑grades may be sufficient to keep pipelines moving without undermining the broader price structure.
• Importers in Europe: Monitor relative spreads between Spanish and Californian kernels; any softening of US domestic demand could briefly improve CIF offers, but current data do not yet point to significant downside.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Spain (FOB Madrid, Valencia & Marcona kernels): Sideways to slightly firm. No immediate weather or supply shocks; strong EU demand keeps a floor under prices.
• US (FAS/FOB, California‑type kernels in Washington D.C. terms): Sideways. Robust March exports counterbalance soft domestic demand, suggesting a stable price band over the next 3 days.

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