Hazelnuts: Turkish Market Stabilises as Buyers Test the Floor

Turkish hazelnut prices have moved from panic to controlled stabilisation, with decisive buying from the market leader putting a floor under raw kernel values but failing to spark a sustained rally. Demand remains muted, while frost risk and average crop prospects cap the downside and keep volatility elevated.

The market is now trading in a narrow corridor defined by the market leader’s purchase strategy and still-fragile global demand. Recent buying of roughly 22,000–25,000 mt has tightened nearby availability and improved sentiment, yet export and domestic offtake stay well below normal levels. Early blossom assessments point to only average 2026/27 crop potential and weakened orchards, meaning that even a normal harvest may not restore comfortable surpluses. Competing origins with good crops, tight credit conditions, high cocoa prices and a still-weak Turkish lira round out a complex, finely balanced outlook.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Trend

On a DAP Central Europe basis, average kernel offers around mid-February stood at roughly EUR 14.22 for conventional raw 11–13 mm, with organic equivalents near EUR 12.06 and roasted 11–13 mm at about EUR 16.86. Smaller roasted fractions and paste traded at discounts, with 2–4 mm roasted around EUR 10.67, 0–2 mm near EUR 9.83 and hazelnut paste at roughly EUR 8.16 per kg. Week-on-week prices were down 7.7%, and the quarter-on-quarter correction exceeded 11%, although levels remain around 31% higher than a year ago.

FOB Istanbul indications for Turkish kernels as of late April show natural 11–13 mm around EUR 8.05 and 13–15 mm near EUR 8.53 per kg, signalling a modest rebound from mid-April lows but still well below the winter peak. Georgian kernels into Central Europe retain a clear premium, with natural 11–13 mm above EUR 10.70 and 13–15 mm around EUR 11.30, underlining Turkey’s price advantage but also the growing acceptance of alternative origins. Overall, the price curve suggests a market that has corrected sharply from its highs and is now consolidating in a lower, but still historically elevated, range.

Product	Origin / Term	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Recent Direction
Raw kernels 11–13 mm (conv.)	TR, DAP Central Europe	~14.22	Down vs. Jan, still +31% YoY
Natural 11–13 mm	TR, FOB Istanbul	8.05	Rebounding from mid-April low
Natural 13–15 mm	TR, FOB Istanbul	8.53	Slightly firmer w/w
Natural 11–13 mm	GE, FCA Central Europe	10.75	Softly lower m/m

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The current season in Turkey is defined by a confirmed below-average crop and weak structural demand. Randuman yields near 41% versus a more typical 50% underscore the tightness in high-quality natural kernels, which remain scarce and are likely to command a sustained premium. Export projections in the 150,000–170,000 mt range are significantly below the usual seasonal benchmark, reflecting both constrained supply and price-sensitive demand.

Domestic demand ahead of Ramadan is notably subdued, with sales reportedly at only about half of normal levels despite traditional peak-season consumption. Export buyers remain cautious, focusing on short-term coverage and opportunistic dips after the recent correction rather than committing to long forward positions. At the same time, alternative origins such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile and the United States are reporting positive crops and gradually rising acceptance among industrial users, structurally eroding Turkey’s ability to dictate global pricing in isolation.

📊 Fundamentals, Currency & Weather

Structurally, the market is caught between low carry-over, weak current demand and uncertain new-crop prospects. Early blossom counts from key Turkish regions have been underwhelming, pointing towards only average potential rather than a bumper 2026/27 harvest. Reports of weakened orchards, notably in the Akcakoca area after prior heat stress, reinforce the view that even a 600,000 mt crop—currently floated in preliminary discussions—would not create a comfortable surplus once low beginning stocks are considered.

Weather currently appears supportive for crop development, but frost risk remains a key downside limiter until the end of April. As long as this risk persists, growers and intermediaries are reluctant to capitulate on price, capping the potential for deeper corrections. On the macro side, the Turkish lira has weakened by just over 2% against the euro in the latest reporting week, while the central bank trimmed its policy rate by 1 percentage point. This marginal easing feeds through into slightly more competitive export offers, but persistently high domestic inflation—around 30% annually—continues to underpin growers’ price expectations and sustains cost pressure throughout the chain.

⚖️ Bullish vs. Bearish Drivers

📌 Bullish Elements

• Confirmed below-average crop volume and quality in Turkey, with weak randuman around 41% and scarcity of good natural kernels.
• Low carry-over stocks and only average-looking 2026/27 crop potential, limiting the likelihood of a substantial surplus even with a 600,000 mt harvest.
• Market leader’s purchase programme (22,000–25,000 mt so far, with willingness to buy more) provides a visible floor to farm-gate prices and supports sentiment.
• High production, financing and labour costs, together with elevated domestic inflation, maintain upward pressure on growers’ required price levels.
• Persistent risk of frost through late April discourages aggressive selling and keeps downside price expectations in check.

📉 Bearish Elements

• Exports are tracking about 30% below previous years, and Ramadan-related domestic demand is roughly half of normal, signalling structural demand erosion at current price levels.
• Alternative origins (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile, USA) report good crops and improving acceptance, offering competitively priced substitutes for industrial users and blenders.
• High interest rates and tight credit conditions make speculative stockholding unattractive, reducing the potential for prolonged inventory-driven rallies.
• High hazelnut and cocoa prices together are curbing demand in key confectionery and chocolate applications, while intense competition among Turkish exporters—often backed by export credits—pressures margins.
• Large volumes of small-kernel material available at lower prices temper broader price increases and offer cheaper alternatives for price-sensitive buyers.

📆 Outlook & Trading Implications

In the short term, raw material prices in Turkey are expected to fluctuate within a corridor of roughly 250–300 TRY/kg, with the lower bound already tested during the recent correction and the upper end representing a still-aspirational target for many farmers. With frost risk yet to be fully cleared and the next round of blossom and crop assessments pending, a decisive directional move before late spring appears unlikely. The market is therefore set for continued volatility within a broadly sideways trend, highly sensitive to any additional purchasing waves from the market leader or sudden changes in weather conditions.

For now, the balance of risks is finely poised: further downside is limited by tight quality supply, low stocks and weather, while the upside is capped by weak demand, strong competition from other origins and restrictive financing conditions. Structural questions also linger around whether the current export slowdown reflects a temporary price-driven pause or a more enduring shift in global sourcing patterns. Until clearer answers emerge, trading strategies will remain focused on tactical timing rather than directional conviction.

🧭 Trading Pointers

• Industrial buyers in Europe: Consider layered coverage for Q2–Q3 at current consolidated levels, prioritising good-quality natural kernels where scarcity risk is highest, while keeping some flexibility for potential dips if weather remains benign.
• Retail and brand buyers: Use the present stabilisation to reassess product portfolios and potential partial substitution with other nut origins, but avoid over-hedging far forward until post-frost crop visibility improves.
• Growers and Turkish handlers: Maintain disciplined sales at or above perceived floors; avoid excessive stock accumulation given high financing costs, but resist panic selling before the frost window closes.
• Speculative participants: Short-term range trading between recent lows and resistance zones appears more attractive than strong trend bets until a clearer fundamental shock (weather or policy) materialises.

📍 3-Day Directional View (Key References)

• TR natural kernels 11–13 mm, FOB Istanbul: Slightly firm to sideways in EUR, with limited downside as long as the lira stays soft and no negative weather news emerges.
• TR roasted kernels and meal, FOB Istanbul: Mostly stable, with narrow spreads and modest support from value-added demand.
• GE kernels into Central Europe (FCA): Mildly soft bias as the premium over Turkish origins encourages some switching, but no sharp moves expected in the next few days.