Tightening Pistachio Supply Sets Stage for Firm Prices into 2026

CY26 pistachio supply is now expected to drop sharply after heat damage during U.S. bloom, while export demand continues to accelerate. This combination points to a structurally tighter market and sustained firm-to-higher prices into 2026.

Strong global shipments are absorbing the record CY25 crop, limiting carryout and reducing the industry’s cushion ahead of a smaller CY26 harvest. With supply projected to fall back toward previous off-year levels and demand still expanding, pricing power is likely to remain with sellers across key origins.

📈 Prices & Current Market Tone

Spot export offers for Iranian inshell pistachios are broadly steady at elevated levels, with Ahmadaghaei 24–26 around EUR 9.50/kg FOB Tehran and 28–30 at roughly EUR 9.26/kg. Closed-mouth material is trading at a significant discount, near EUR 7.01/kg FOB. The absence of recent price cuts, despite a record U.S. crop in CY25, underscores how quickly strong shipments are tightening available supply.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Unusually high temperatures during the March bloom period affected more than half of U.S. pistachio acreage, cutting the CY26 U.S. crop estimate from about 1.2–1.4 billion lbs to roughly 1.0 billion lbs. This brings expected total supply for CY26 back in line with CY24, the last notable off-year, and implies a decline of around 28% versus CY25’s record output. Bearing acreage stands at approximately 529,000 acres today and is projected to rise to about 620,000 acres by CY30, a modest 12% growth that will not immediately offset the upcoming supply shortfall.

On the demand side, exports remain the key growth driver. Industry forecasts point to export volumes rising about 47%, from an average of 750 million lbs in CY20–CY24 to around 1.1 billion lbs in CY25–CY30. Domestic use is expected to grow more slowly, roughly 9%, from 320 million lbs to about 350 million lbs. This increasingly export-led demand profile makes global market access, currency moves and logistics critical for pricing, but it also means that structural demand growth is firmly in place.

📊 Shipments, Carryout & Fundamentals

CY25 shipments are projected at 1.245 billion lbs. By March, the industry had already shipped 832 million lbs, leaving required April–August shipments of about 413 million lbs, or 82.6 million lbs per month. This pace is above the previous five-year April–August average of 76.5 million lbs per month, indicating that demand is tracking ahead of historical norms despite high prices.

Saleable CY25 supply (after shelling and shrinkage) is estimated at 1.471 billion lbs. Meeting the current shipment projection would leave a carryout near 226 million lbs—a relatively modest buffer given the expected step-down in CY26 production. Handlers are actively managing inventory to smooth on/off year volatility, but strong global demand is limiting their ability to build substantial carry stocks, increasing the sensitivity of prices to any further weather or logistical disruptions.

🌦️ Weather & Short-Term Outlook

In California, conditions over the coming week are seasonally warm and generally favorable, with highs mostly in the low- to mid-20s°C and only brief chances of light rain. The key weather shock for the current cycle has already occurred during the March bloom, and its impact is reflected in the downgraded CY26 crop estimates. Near-term weather therefore looks neutral, but any additional summer heatwaves or water constraints could further constrain yields on already stressed orchards.

📆 Forward View & Trading Outlook

Forward projections suggest CY26 total supply will be broadly comparable to CY24, but starting from a much tighter carryout. With export demand structurally higher and domestic use still edging up, the market is set to remain supply-constrained going into CY26. Even with bearing acreage expected to expand over the next five years, the immediate balance looks tight, and price weakness appears unlikely unless demand unexpectedly softens.

• Buyers/importers: Consider advancing coverage for late 2025 and early 2026, especially for premium grades, before CY26 tightness is fully priced in. Stagger purchases to manage price risk but avoid over-reliance on spot availability in early 2026.
• Producers/handlers: Use firm prices to lock in forward sales selectively while preserving some upside exposure for CY26. Prioritize quality differentiation, as premiums for large, well-processed kernels and inshell lots are likely to widen in a tight market.
• Traders: Watch shipment pace and carryout revisions closely; faster-than-expected late CY25 exports could trigger another leg up in prices, particularly for export-dominant origins.

📉 3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

Product	Origin	Location	Current Spot (FOB, EUR/kg)	3-Day Bias
Pistachio inshell Ahmadaghaei 24–26	Iran	Tehran	9.50	Sideways to firm
Pistachio inshell Ahmadaghaei 28–30	Iran	Tehran	9.26	Sideways to firm
Pistachio inshell Ahmadaghaei closed mouth 24–26	Iran	Tehran	7.01	Sideways