Ukrainian Peas: Record Harvest Meets Record Sales Difficulties

Record pea production in Ukraine in 2025/26 is colliding with unusually weak export demand, creating domestic oversupply and persistent pressure on farmgate prices. Despite stable offer levels in late April, the slow pace of exports suggests that price recovery will remain limited in the near term.

The 2025/26 season in Ukraine’s pea market is characterized by a sharp mismatch between production and sales opportunities. With output at a seven‑year high and export shipments lagging well behind last season, stocks are accumulating in the interior and logistics remain a bottleneck. International price benchmarks in Western Europe are holding significantly above Ukrainian levels, but the gap has not yet translated into stronger export flows. Cool and locally frost‑risk weather in Odesa and surrounding regions in the coming days mainly affects new‑season crop prospects, while the dominant driver for current prices remains demand and logistics rather than weather.

📈 Prices & Differentials

Domestic pea prices in Ukraine are flat at multi-week lows, reflecting excess supply and slow exports. As of 30 April 2026, FCA Odesa offers stand around:

• Yellow peas (98% purity, non-organic, UA, FCA Odesa): 0.26 EUR/kg
• Green peas (98% purity, non-organic, UA, FCA Odesa): 0.34 EUR/kg

In comparison, FOB London benchmarks remain much higher:

• Green peas (GB, FOB London): 1.02 EUR/kg
• Marrowfat peas (GB, FOB London): 1.33 EUR/kg

The stability of offers over recent weeks indicates that the domestic market has already priced in oversupply, while the wide discount to UK values underscores Ukraine’s competitive export potential that is not yet fully realized.

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)
Peas, yellow, dried, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa, FCA	0.26
Peas, green, dried, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa, FCA	0.34
Peas, green, dried	United Kingdom	London, FOB	1.02
Peas, marrowfat, dried	United Kingdom	London, FOB	1.33

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Ukraine’s pea production in 2025/26 reached about 653 thousand tons, roughly 40% above last year and the highest level in seven years. This strong expansion sharply raised export potential but has not been matched by corresponding sales abroad in the first half of the marketing year.

From July to December 2025, exports totaled only 160 thousand tons, about 34% less than a year earlier and roughly one third of the season’s export capacity. The combination of record output and subdued foreign demand has led to surplus stocks on the domestic market, intensifying competition among sellers and reinforcing downward pressure on prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

The key fundamental feature of the current season is the paradox of abundant supply alongside weak realized demand. Producers are facing difficulties placing volumes, as export channels absorb product more slowly than expected and local consumption cannot fully compensate.

This imbalance is forcing many farmers and traders to carry larger inventories, increasing storage and financing costs. With external benchmarks still far above Ukrainian FCA levels, the constraint appears to lie primarily in logistics, buyer risk appetite and contracting pace, rather than in pure price competitiveness.

🌦 Weather Outlook (Odesa & Key Growing Areas)

For 30 April–2 May 2026, Odesa and the surrounding oblast face cool conditions with highs around 12–13°C and lows near 4–7°C, under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Weather services also flag a yellow warning for ground frost during overnight hours, with surface temperatures potentially dipping to 0 to –3°C.

These conditions may pose localized risks for early vegetation but have limited immediate impact on the already harvested 2025/26 pea crop, which is the main driver of current market dynamics. However, if frost episodes persist into May, they could influence sowing progress and early development of the next pea cycle, indirectly affecting medium‑term supply expectations.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers (UA): With exports absorbing only a fraction of potential so far, further significant price appreciation in the short term appears unlikely. Consider staggered sales to manage storage risk, but be prepared for extended low‑price conditions unless export activity accelerates.
• Exporters & Traders: The wide discount to Western European benchmarks provides room to build competitive export programs. Focus on diversifying destinations and optimizing logistics from Odesa and other Black Sea ports to convert Ukraine’s price advantage into firm demand.
• Industrial Buyers & Importers: Current Ukrainian FCA levels offer attractive purchasing opportunities relative to UK and other EU origins. Securing forward volumes now could lock in favorable margins, especially if future weather issues or logistical improvements tighten the balance later in 2026.

📉 Short-Term Price Direction (Next 3 Days)

• Ukraine, Odesa (FCA, yellow & green peas): Prices are expected to remain broadly stable to slightly weaker, as domestic oversupply persists and no immediate catalyst for stronger export demand is visible.
• Western Europe, London (FOB, GB peas): Benchmarks are likely to stay stable over the next few days, maintaining a wide premium over Ukrainian values and preserving Ukraine’s theoretical export advantage.