Indian Green Cardamom Eases From Peaks But Bulls Still in Control

Physical cardamom prices in Delhi have corrected 2–5% from last week’s highs in EUR terms, while Spices Board auctions in Kerala still clear at firm levels, signalling a pause rather than a reversal of the recent bull run.

Overall, the market remains tight but near‑term upside looks more gradual as buyers digest earlier price spikes and monitor the onset of the southwest monsoon.

Indian green cardamom continues to trade in a structurally firm environment. Spices Board auctions in Kerala are clearing large arrivals at high average prices around ₹2,500–2,650/kg, indicating robust absorption despite some profit‑taking after April’s rally. In Delhi, indicative FCA/FOB offers in EUR show a mild week‑on‑week softening across non‑organic grades, suggesting that exporters and domestic packers are pushing back slightly on replacement costs. Export demand remains broadly supportive following strong value growth in 2024/25, but immediate buying is selective at current elevated levels. IMD’s outlook for above‑normal May rainfall and moderate temperatures in South India reduces near‑term crop stress risks, implying no weather‑driven supply shock in the next 2–3 weeks.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Recent Spices Board auction data show end‑April small cardamom average prices in Kerala in the ₹2,450–2,650/kg band, with premium lots achieving above ₹3,200–3,300/kg, underscoring strong quality differentials. Delhi export‑oriented quotes (FOB) for whole green cardamom remain broadly aligned with these levels once logistics and margins are included, while FCA ex‑warehouse prices for non‑organic grades have dipped a few percentage points from late‑April peaks in EUR terms.

Product (Delhi)	Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1‑week change
Whole green 8 mm (non‑organic)	FCA	≈ €21.0	▼ ~2–3%
Whole green 7.5 mm (non‑organic)	FCA	≈ €15.0	▼ ~3%
Whole green 7–7.2 mm (non‑organic)	FCA	≈ €13.5	▼ ~3–4%
Whole green 6.5–6.8 mm (non‑organic)	FCA	≈ €10.0	▼ ~5–6%

Kerala auction commentary from trade houses confirms that average prices have held firm in the last ten days, with some auctions touching maximum prices above ₹3,400–3,500/kg for select high‑grade lots, even as total arrivals per sale often exceed 70–110 tonnes. This pattern is consistent with a market where buyers are price‑sensitive at the margin but willing to pay up for top quality.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather

On the supply side, recent government and auction statistics point to adequate but not burdensome physical availability. April auctions saw large quantities offered and mostly absorbed, suggesting that growers and intermediaries are still releasing stock into the rally rather than aggressively hoarding. At the same time, broader export data for Indian spices indicate strong value growth for cardamom within the turmeric–cardamom–coriander basket, implying firm underlying external demand and improved realisations.

Weather is currently supportive rather than threatening. The IMD’s May 2026 outlook projects above‑normal rainfall over much of India, with maximum temperatures near or slightly below normal, while nights stay relatively warm. Local forecasts for Idukki—the core small cardamom belt—show scattered pre‑monsoon showers and moderate temperatures over the coming week, a benign backdrop for standing plantations and early field operations. With no immediate signs of drought or heat stress, weather is unlikely to tighten supply in the next 2–3 weeks, keeping the market focused on demand and stockholding behaviour.

📊 Market Tone & Fundamentals

Recent trade reports emphasise that despite higher arrivals, cardamom prices in key Kerala auctions remained on an upward trajectory through late April, highlighting demand‑driven strength and buyers’ preference for quality. Tighter large‑cardamom supplies in the broader Himalayan region also contribute to a generally bullish tone across the cardamom complex, even if this segment is partially distinct from South Indian small cardamom.

Export‑oriented players report revived international interest as global customers adjust to higher price realities and seek reliable Indian origin supply, helped by a more favourable trade policy backdrop. Online B2B forums continue to show active sourcing inquiries for Kerala origin green cardamom, especially larger sizes, indicating that demand is present but increasingly selective on both quality and price. Overall, fundamentals point to a still‑tight but better supplied market than in early Q1, with prices consolidating near elevated levels.

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Short‑term bias: Mildly bullish to sideways. Auction and export indicators suggest downside is limited while fresh highs may be harder to achieve without a new demand catalyst.
• For buyers (importers & packers): Use the current 2–5% pullback in ex‑Delhi EUR prices to scale into staggered coverage, prioritising 7.5–8 mm grades where end‑user demand is strongest. Avoid over‑hedging ahead of the monsoon until clearer signals emerge from May auctions.
• For growers and stockists: Maintain a balanced selling strategy—continue releasing regular grades into firm auctions while holding a portion of top lots, given sustained premium bids for high‑quality and larger‑size material.
• For traders: The spread between Kerala auction averages (in INR) and Delhi FOB/EUR offers remains attractive. Focus on quick‑turn shipments rather than speculative long positions, as policy or currency shifts could quickly impact margin.

📍 3‑Day Indicative Price Outlook (India)

Based on current auction performance, trade feedback and stable short‑term weather in the Kerala growing belt, the 3‑day directional view for Indian green cardamom is:

• Kerala auctions (small cardamom, mixed grades): Average prices likely to hold in a firm band around the recent ₹2,450–2,650/kg range (≈ €27–29/kg), with premium lots continuing to test higher levels.
• Delhi FCA, non‑organic whole 7–8 mm: Prices expected broadly steady to ±1% versus current EUR levels, as buyers test the lower edge of the new range but face strong replacement costs from origin.
• Delhi FOB export parcels: Stable to marginally firmer, with sellers resisting deeper discounts while shipping programs for May–June are finalised.