Cashew Market Tightens as West African RCN Costs Clash with Weak Kernel Demand

Global cashew prices are caught between firm raw cashew nut (RCN) values in West Africa and kernel prices that remain too weak to clear those costs, pointing to a structurally tighter balance into late May and early June. Near-term, kernel values look stable to slightly firmer as quality raw material becomes scarcer and logistics costs rise, especially for European buyers.

The current harvest phase is winding down in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria just as processors and importers scale back fresh RCN buying. This combination curbs available high-quality supply while kernel demand in China and India stays lacklustre. With African RCN costs misaligned to kernel indications from Vietnam and India, the market faces an impending margin squeeze that will likely force either higher kernel offers or a correction in raw nut prices within the next two to four weeks.

📈 Prices & Differentials

Kernel benchmarks suggest a sideways to mildly supportive tone, but without full cost coverage for current RCN levels:

• Vietnam FOB WW320 around 6.3–6.6 EUR/kg equivalent, broadly in line with recent export offers and stable over the past week.
• India FCA New Delhi W320 near 6.7–6.8 EUR/kg, slightly softer than earlier in the season but still constrained by higher imported RCN costs and a weaker rupee.
• European FCA Dordrecht WW320 non-organic around 4.9–5.0 EUR/kg, with organic WW320 near 6.0 EUR/kg, reflecting comfortable nearby supply but rising replacement costs.
• Premium whole kernels (W180, W240) continue to command notable uplifts over W320, while broken grades (LWP, SWP, WS) remain discounted yet under some cost pressure.

Location / Term	Grade	Indicative level (EUR/kg)	1-week trend
Vietnam FOB	WW320	≈ 6.3–6.6	Stable
India FCA New Delhi	W320	≈ 6.7–6.8	Slightly softer
Netherlands FCA	WW320	≈ 4.9–5.0	Sideways

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

On the supply side, Côte d’Ivoire remains central. As of 29 April 2026, farmgate arrivals reached about 945,000 tonnes, with local processors absorbing roughly 690,000–700,000 tonnes and exporters another 185,000 tonnes, plus around 65,000 tonnes in trucks awaiting dispatch. Estimated 2026 production of 1.3–1.4 million tonnes is below last season’s 1.55 million, tightening top-quality availability and underpinning export prices.

April RCN exports from Côte d’Ivoire were an unusually low 25,000 tonnes as processors prioritised domestic cracking over shipments. Farmgate prices ranged between 300 and 425 CFA/kg, while export offers firmed to around 510–515 CFA/kg, highlighting a widening quality and margin gap. New Senegal export taxes on RCN and stricter Guinea-Bissau border controls risk diverting flows toward Gambia and adding cost and logistical complexity for buyers relying on Senegal routes.

Nigeria has moved into the late-season phase, with KOR slipping from the mid-40s to low-40s, signalling the end of peak-quality supply. Farmgate values softened modestly to about 1,500–1,550 NGN/kg, while up-country warehouse prices held near 1,850 NGN/kg. A shortage of empty containers, linked to weaker import activity and macro headwinds, is now a tangible friction for exporters and may lift export parity levels.

In Ghana, the season is closing as heavier rainfall accelerates the shift toward other annual crops. Remaining RCN generally achieves KOR 42–44, but high-grade stock is increasingly scarce, with farmgate prices compressed to 8–9 GHS/kg for domestic nuts and cross-border Ivorian nuts at Sampa fetching around 13 GHS/kg. Recent spells of heavy rainfall across southern West Africa reinforce the risk of quality deterioration on unsheltered late-season stocks.

📊 Processing Hubs & Kernel Demand

Vietnamese processors remain highly selective in raw nut purchasing. African RCN into Ho Chi Minh City is indicated around 1,490–1,600 USD/tonne (Ghana 45-lb and Côte d’Ivoire 48/185 grades), but packers are largely covering only nearby kernel commitments. At these RCN costs, kernel offers for W320 in the 3.10–3.40 USD/lb range and W180 at 4.10–4.40 USD/lb leave limited processing margins, discouraging aggressive forward buying.

Chinese demand is muted, particularly for W320, with some interest shifting to larger grades such as W240 and W180. Q1 2026 Chinese kernel imports were about 14,600 tonnes, down from more than 17,400 tonnes in Q1 2025, underscoring a softer demand backdrop. This downdraft limits packers’ ability to pass through higher RCN costs, even as replacement raw material becomes more expensive.

In India, kernel markets are seasonally weak. Demand for broken grades from hospitality and food service underperforms normal patterns, while whole-grade exports to Middle Eastern destinations have largely stalled. Imported Ghana RCN is being offered around 1.74 USD/kg, above domestic wet RCN at 1.63–1.69 USD/kg, squeezing processors. A weaker rupee near 94.9 per USD inflates imported RCN costs and complicates forward hedging, especially if oil prices stay elevated amid unresolved US–Iran tensions.

☁️ Weather & Logistics Watch

Weather conditions across southern West Africa in early May feature persistent rainfall episodes over Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria, with weekly totals locally reaching 50–100 mm and pockets up to 120–200 mm. This raises moisture-related quality risks for unprotected late-season RCN and can disrupt internal transport from farm to warehouse or port, particularly on secondary roads.

In Nigeria, May typically brings high rainfall frequency with more than 20 rainy days on average and temperatures around 30 °C, while coastal Ghana experiences heavy precipitation exceeding 200 mm in May in many areas. These patterns are consistent with the onset of the main rainy season, reinforcing the shift away from RCN collection and increasing the urgency to move remaining stocks under cover or into processing.

📆 Short-Term Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Over the next month, the core theme is the lack of parity between expensive West African RCN and still-subdued kernel prices. Unless kernel demand surprises to the upside, particularly from China or Europe, the most probable adjustment path is a gradual firming of kernel offers rather than a sharp fall in raw nut values, given the tighter 2026 crop and mounting logistical and policy costs.

European buyers should anticipate steadier to slightly higher prices for high-quality whole grades, especially W320 and premiums such as W240 and W180, as origin quality tightens and freight/logistics add-ons remain elevated. Broken grades may see less pronounced gains but are unlikely to cheapen significantly as processors try to defend crush margins across the product mix.

💡 Trading Recommendations

• European importers: Consider securing coverage for premium whole grades for June–July now, especially from African origins, as quality-based differentials are likely to widen with late-season weather and reduced exports from Côte d’Ivoire.
• Industrial users: For standard W320, maintain at least medium-term coverage; downside appears limited by RCN costs and logistics, while upside risk is skewed toward moderate price appreciation rather than collapse.
• Origin processors (West Africa & India): Be cautious with new RCN purchases at current farmgate levels unless matched with hedged kernel sales; focus on quality segregation and efficient logistics to capture premiums.
• Speculative / trading houses: Watch for any easing of geopolitical tensions that could soften oil, strengthen the rupee and improve Indian export competitiveness; this could briefly cap upside but also unlock deferred demand.

📍 3-Day Directional Outlook (Key Exchanges)

• Vietnam FOB kernels (WW320, WW240): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR terms as replacement RCN stays costly and export demand remains steady.
• India FCA New Delhi kernels: Broadly stable with a mild soft bias in local terms, but little room for further EUR price declines given currency and import RCN costs.
• EU FCA (Netherlands) kernels: Mostly unchanged in the very short term, with upside risk on forward positions for premium whole grades as African quality availability tightens.