Turkish Figs: Quality Concerns Weigh on Exports as New Season Nears

Export demand for Turkish dried figs is under pressure as quality problems drive container returns, keeping FOB prices flat and forcing more product into the domestic market.

While weather in the Aegean region has turned supportive for fig trees, the commercial side of the market is strained. Elevated aflatoxin and ochratoxin findings have led to a high number of export returns, prompting exporters to step up testing and inspections. This quality-control push increases costs at a time when farmers have released their remaining stocks, but have not realized the higher prices they hoped for. With exporters reluctant to sell at a loss, the market is entering the new season with heightened uncertainty.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

FOB Malatya prices for Turkish conventional dried figs are broadly stable, reflecting the stand-off between farmers and exporters rather than strong demand. Recent offers show natural No. 5–1 at around EUR 8.20–9.60/mt-equivalent and Lerida No. 7–1 at roughly EUR 7.40–10.00 FOB, unchanged over the last three weeks. Farmers have released their final stocks in anticipation of price increases, but weak export execution and returns have prevented any meaningful appreciation. As a result, price risk is skewed to the downside in the near term unless export flows normalize.

Product	Grade	Location/Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)
Dried figs, natural	No. 5	Malatya, FOB	8.20
Dried figs, natural	No. 1	Malatya, FOB	9.60
Dried figs, Lerida	No. 5	Malatya, FOB	8.00
Dried figs, Lerida	No. 1	Malatya, FOB	10.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

On the supply side, farmers in the Aegean region have largely emptied their remaining 2025/26 stocks into the market. This late-season selling has boosted short-term availability, especially as some containers are being returned from export destinations. Because export prices have not improved, these volumes are increasingly directed to the domestic market, softening internal prices and limiting exporters’ ability to lift offers.

Demand is constrained by buyers’ concerns over food safety and by the reputational impact of the high number of returns linked to aflatoxin and ochratoxin contamination. Some international buyers are hesitating or demanding stricter specifications, which slows contracting and reinforces a cautious tone. Exporters, facing elevated quality risk and downstream pressure, are unwilling to accept lower prices that would crystallize losses on existing stocks.

📊 Fundamentals & Quality Risk

Fundamentals are currently dominated by quality issues rather than by crop size or weather stress. The spike in aflatoxin and ochratoxin-related returns has triggered more intensive testing and product inspections before shipment. While these measures are essential to restore confidence, they raise per-unit costs and lengthen lead times. Exporters are caught between stricter compliance requirements and already thin margins, particularly on older stocks.

The key structural challenge is ensuring higher and more consistent raw-material quality at farm and drying level. Industry stakeholders are already working on measures for the new season, including better field controls, improved drying and storage practices, and more systematic pre-sorting. If successfully implemented, these efforts could tighten effective supply of exportable-quality figs but support a healthier, more sustainable price structure later in the marketing year.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for the Aegean Figs Belt

Air temperatures in the Aegean have returned to seasonal norms, providing a favourable environment for fig trees as they progress through early development stages. In the Izmir–Aegean coastal zone over the next three days, conditions are expected to remain generally mild to warm, with daytime highs around 25–28°C and no extreme events on the horizon. This benign pattern supports a positive yield outlook for now, with no immediate weather-driven threat to the upcoming crop.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Price bias: Near-term tone remains weak-to-sideways as domestic supply is ample and export channels are disrupted by returns. Upside is capped until quality issues are credibly addressed.
• For importers: Use current stability in FOB prices to secure limited nearby coverage, but link contracts tightly to quality specs and testing regimes. Consider diversifying suppliers to hedge against further Turkish shipment issues.
• For exporters: Prioritize strict pre-shipment controls and traceability over volume. Clearing lower-quality stocks domestically at a discount may be preferable to risking further returns and reputational damage.
• For farmers: With old-crop stocks largely sold and prices flat, focus should shift to field-level quality improvements ahead of the new season rather than holding out for significant short-term price gains.

📉 3-Day Price Indication

• Turkey – Malatya, FOB dried figs (all major grades): Prices expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days, with only minor negotiation-driven fluctuations within current ranges.
• Domestic Turkish market: Slight downside risk persists as redirected export volumes continue to seek outlets locally.