Dried figs: steady export prices under pressure from weak demand

Dried fig export prices are holding steady but face growing downward pressure as weak domestic and European demand collide with expectations of a good new crop.

End‑of‑season trading is subdued. Raw material prices inside Turkey are easing on soft local demand, yet exporters are resisting cuts, keeping FOB offers firm to avoid book losses on high‑priced inventory. With weather currently normal in key fig areas and early signals for a healthy 2026/27 crop, many European buyers are in no rush, preferring to wait for cheaper replacement levels.

📈 Prices & market structure

Dried fig prices are broadly stable on the export side, despite weaker raw material levels in the domestic market. Exporters who bought fruit earlier at higher costs are maintaining elevated offer prices to protect margins and stock values, creating a stand‑off between origin and demand centers.

Current indicative Turkish FOB levels from Malatya show a relatively flat curve over recent weeks, with only selective adjustments in some Lerida sizes while natural grades are unchanged. This stability masks a softer underlying tone driven by low spot interest, particularly from Europe, and the approach of the new crop, which may force a repricing later in the year.

Product	Grade / Type	Location & Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1–3 week change
Dried figs	No: 7, Lerida	TR, Malatya, FOB	7.60	Stable
Dried figs	No: 4, natural	TR, Malatya, FOB	8.80	Stable
Dried figs	No: 1, Lerida	TR, Malatya, FOB	10.00	Stable vs. mid‑April

🌍 Supply, demand & weather

On the supply side, the market is moving toward the tail end of the current season. Raw material availability is comfortable and, with domestic Turkish demand weak, farm‑gate and local market prices are slipping. This contrasts with the export layer, where holders remain reluctant sellers at lower levels because of their higher average purchase prices.

European demand is notably soft. Buyers are well covered for nearby needs, face sluggish retail and foodservice offtake, and therefore prefer to wait in anticipation of more competitive offers once new crop prospects are clearer. This wait‑and‑see behavior amplifies the pressure on raw material prices while temporarily supporting export indications as long as exporters can bear the carry.

Weather in key Turkish fig regions is currently described as normal, and a seven‑day outlook for western Turkey (e.g., Aydın province) points to mild, seasonally appropriate conditions with a mix of sun, clouds and only light showers, with daytime highs mostly in the low‑ to mid‑20s °C.

If this benign pattern continues through flowering and early fruit set, expectations for both quality and quantity in the coming crop remain positive. In that scenario, increased availability into the new season would likely add further downward pressure on prices unless demand meaningfully improves.

📊 Fundamentals & risk factors

• Stocks: Exporters are sitting on relatively expensive inventory, incentivizing them to defend current offer levels and avoid selling below cost. This delays price discovery but cannot indefinitely offset weak demand and cheaper raw material replenishment.
• Demand: Europe is the main weak spot, with buyers comfortable in coverage and cautious on consumer demand. The mismatch between low end‑user appetite and still‑firm offer prices is suppressing new business.
• Weather & crop outlook: Normal weather so far and a positive early outlook for the next crop suggest no immediate supply threat. If realized, a good harvest in both volume and quality would tilt fundamentals more clearly bearish for prices later in the year.
• Timing: It is still early in the pre‑harvest window. More concrete information on crop size, quality and potential quality issues will emerge over the coming months, which may prompt reassessment of pricing strategies at origin.

📆 Trading outlook & 3‑day price view

• Buyers (importers, packers): With export offers steady but underlying pressure building, selectively extend coverage only on key items where quality or specific sizes are critical. For standard grades, consider staggering purchases and using market softness to negotiate improved terms later, assuming weather remains favorable.
• Sellers (exporters, processors): Focus on managing stock exposure and financing costs. Where possible, lock in business on premium grades to protect margins, but remain prepared to adjust offers downward if confirmation of a strong new crop and continued weak demand materialize.
• Speculative/merchandising positions: The balance of risk for the medium term leans mildly bearish given the combination of falling raw material prices, soft demand and a positive crop outlook. Downside moves may, however, be gradual as long as stock holders resist marking down export prices.

Over the next three trading days, Turkish FOB fig prices in EUR are expected to remain broadly stable across most grades, with only a slight downward bias where sellers face liquidity needs. No sharp moves are anticipated in the very short term as the market waits for clearer signals on the new season.