Cinnamon Prices Ease Slightly in India while Vietnam Cassia Stays Competitive

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon prices are drifting mildly softer, with modest week‑on‑week declines in both organic Ceylon and cassia products. The overall tone is one of consolidation rather than a sharp correction, as supply from India remains relatively tight while Vietnam’s cassia keeps a clear cost advantage on the global market.

Export‑oriented buyers are seeing narrow adjustments rather than a trend reversal. Indian spices more broadly are in a mixed phase, with subdued buying in several complexes signalling price sensitivity at higher levels. Weather in key cinnamon regions in India and Vietnam is moving into the early wet‑season pattern, but without any acute, near‑term crop threat, leaving prices to respond mainly to demand and trade flows over the coming days.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

The latest FOB offers (New Delhi and Hanoi, converted to approximate EUR at 1 EUR ≈ 1.07 USD) show a very slight softening across the cinnamon complex compared with the previous week. This is consistent with recent commentary that Indian cinnamon had edged softer on calm demand even as the broader global balance stayed relatively firm.

Product	Origin / Location	Spec	FOB price (EUR/kg)	1-week change (EUR/kg)
Ceylon cinnamon sticks (organic)	IN / New Delhi	Premium	≈ 7.65	−0.06
Ceylon cinnamon powder (organic)	IN / New Delhi	Premium	≈ 7.13	−0.05
Cassia sticks (organic)	IN / New Delhi	Export	≈ 7.30	−0.05
Cassia powder (organic)	IN / New Delhi	Export	≈ 4.95	−0.05
Cassia split	VN / Hanoi	Conventional	≈ 2.73	−0.05
Cassia broken	VN / Hanoi	Conventional	≈ 2.25	−0.05
Cassia cigarette	VN / Hanoi	Conventional	≈ 5.10	−0.05

These levels broadly match independent assessments that see New Delhi FOB offers for organic sticks around €7–8/kg and powders near €5–7/kg, with Vietnam cassia maintaining a substantial discount in the €1.7–3.4/kg wholesale range depending on grade.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Indian spices as a group are currently described as “largely mixed”, with some complexes experiencing softer prices due to improved arrivals and cautious buying. Cinnamon fits this picture: supply of exportable Indian Ceylon and cassia is not abundant, but buyers are resisting higher offers, leading to a gentle easing rather than a squeeze.

Vietnam remains a critical supplier of cassia to world markets. Recent industry analysis notes that Vietnam’s cinnamon exports reached record volumes in 2025, over 120,000 tonnes, supporting a structurally ample export pipeline into 2026. With farm‑gate cassia prices still historically low in parts of northern Vietnam, FOB offers can stay aggressive even if Indian quotes stabilise or firm.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Impact (IN, VN)

In India, key cinnamon‑adjacent spice regions in Kerala have been under intense heat, though a recent IMD forecast called for scattered rain and thunderstorms across several districts up to 4 May, linked to a cyclonic circulation. This pattern is more relevant for short‑term labour conditions and power costs than for immediate cinnamon yields, but sustained heat does underline medium‑term crop‑stress risks.

In Vietnam, major cassia‑growing provinces such as Yên Bái and Lào Cai are entering the early wet‑season transition. Local forecasts around Yên Bái point to a mix of warm conditions with periodic showers, while recent regional reports highlight episodes of heavy rainfall in the north‑west highlands. For now, this supports normal field operations, though excess rain during harvest windows would be a watch‑point later in the season.

📆 3‑Day Price & Trading Outlook

Directional view (next 3 days, FOB, EUR):

• India – New Delhi (Ceylon & cassia): Prices likely to hold in a narrow band around current levels with a mild upward bias if any fresh export enquiries surface. No strong downside catalysts in the very short term.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (cassia products): FOB cassia expected to remain stable to marginally soft as exporters compete for orders amid comfortable raw bark availability.

🎯 Trading Recommendations (Short Term)

• Importers / Buyers: Use the current minor dip in Indian organic Ceylon and cassia prices to cover near‑term needs, but avoid over‑buying given still‑ample Vietnam cassia supply.
• Exporters – India: Maintain offers close to current levels; small discounts may secure prompt business, but fundamentals do not justify aggressive price cuts.
• Exporters – Vietnam: Leverage price advantage in cassia split and broken grades to target price‑sensitive markets, watching logistics costs that have affected other Vietnam agri exports.