Cinnamon Prices Firm as Indian Supply Tightens and Vietnam Bark Stays Depressed

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon prices are edging higher but remain fundamentally split: processed, export‑grade Indian Ceylon and cassia are firming on tight supply and strong spice complex sentiment, while raw bark in Vietnam is still depressed at farmgate, keeping FOB cassia competitively priced.

Cinnamon is moving in line with a broader bullish tone in Indian spices, where analysts flag supply shortages and firm export demand for several niche crops, including cinnamon. At the same time, Vietnam’s major cinnamon provinces are in peak harvest, with local reports of sharply lower fresh‑bark prices encouraging growers to hold back volumes in hopes of a rebound. Short‑term weather risks are centered on hot, above‑normal temperatures in key Indian spice regions, while northern Vietnam enters its warm, wet season. For now, the market is biased mildly higher, but end‑user demand remains price‑sensitive.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are FOB, converted to EUR.

Origin	Product	Location	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1‑week change
India	Ceylon cinnamon, organic sticks	New Delhi	7.71	+0.5%
India	Ceylon cinnamon, organic powder	New Delhi	7.18	+0.7%
India	Cassia sticks, organic	New Delhi	7.35	+0.7%
India	Cassia powder, organic	New Delhi	5.00	+1.0%
Vietnam	Cassia split	Hanoi	2.78	+1.5%
Vietnam	Cassia broken	Hanoi	2.30	+2.2%
Vietnam	Cassia cigarette	Hanoi	5.15	+1.0%

Indian cinnamon and cassia offers in New Delhi have nudged 0.5–1.0% higher week‑on‑week, extending a modest upward trend visible since late March, consistent with commentary that the Indian spice complex, including cinnamon, is trading with a bullish bias on constrained supply. In Vietnam, export‑grade cassia prices from Hanoi are also slightly firmer versus mid‑April, even as farm‑gate prices in some producing districts remain historically low.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

In India, traders report supply shortages across several high‑value spices, with cinnamon mentioned among the products supported by tight availability and strong export interest. Export data tools focused on ground cinnamon highlight active flows and encourage exporters to use real‑time price intelligence to refine offers, indicating continued international demand despite recent firmness in values.

Vietnam, by contrast, is in peak harvest in major cinnamon areas such as Quang Ngai and the northern highlands. Local coverage from Tra Bong in central Vietnam notes that fresh bark prices have plunged to around VND 10,000–15,000 per kg—roughly half of previous seasons—prompting many farmers to delay felling trees and restricting immediate supply to processors. This disconnect between low farm‑gate prices and slightly firmer export FOB quotations suggests margins remain compressed upstream while exporters benefit from competitively priced raw material.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

The broader Indian spice sector is currently characterized by low carry‑in stocks and weather‑affected production in several plantation crops. A recent industry briefing underlines a strong bullish trend for cardamom, cinnamon and seed spices due to supply shortfalls, particularly after heavy rains earlier in the season reduced yields in key southern states. This environment is reinforcing buyers’ willingness to pay small premiums for reliable, certified lots of Ceylon cinnamon and organic cassia.

Weather conditions add a near‑term risk factor. In Kerala—one of India’s important spice belts—temperatures on April 26 are forecast to reach 38–40°C in multiple districts, around 3–4°C above normal, with hot and humid conditions across most lowland areas. Prolonged heat without timely pre‑monsoon showers could stress younger cinnamon plantings and delay some field work, though immediate crop damage reports are limited.

In northern Vietnam, cinnamon‑growing provinces such as Yen Bai and Lao Cai are transitioning into the warm, wet summer season from April onwards, characterized by rising temperatures and the onset of monsoon‑type rainfall. For the coming days, no acute adverse weather headlines have emerged; instead, normalizing rainfall after a dry spell could actually aid bark quality and peeling, supporting steady harvest progress.

📌 Market Sentiment & Trade Flows

Indian exporters position cinnamon within broader spice portfolios, often pairing Ceylon cinnamon and cassia with other premium items for destination buyers. Specialist exporters highlight dual‑sourcing models that combine low‑coumarin Ceylon with high‑oil cassia from Vietnam, underscoring that buyers increasingly treat the two as complementary rather than interchangeable grades.

In Vietnam, processors and trading houses continue to promote cassia for bulk food and beverage applications, emphasizing oil content and standardized cuts such as round‑cut and cigarette‑grade sticks for export. Despite weak farm‑gate prices reported in parts of central Vietnam, export‑oriented processors appear to be maintaining throughput around peak season, taking advantage of competitively priced bark and healthy demand from traditional markets in Asia, Europe and North America.

📆 3–4 Week Price Outlook

• Bias: Mildly bullish – Tight Indian supply, hot weather in spice regions and a generally firm spice complex should keep Ceylon cinnamon and Indian cassia supported through May.
• Vietnam cassia: Depressed farm‑gate prices are likely to limit downside for FOB offers, as processors may widen margins rather than cut export prices aggressively; modest further gains are possible if global buying improves from current cautious levels.
• Risk factors: A sharper demand slowdown in destination markets, or a rapid increase in harvest‑time selling in Vietnam if growers capitulate on price expectations, could cap the rally.

💼 Trading Outlook

• Indian buyers/exporters: Consider locking in part of Q2–Q3 requirements for Ceylon cinnamon sticks and powder at current New Delhi FOB levels around EUR 7.1–7.7/kg, as the balance of risks points to further small increases if hot weather persists and spice supply stays tight.
• International importers: Use current Vietnamese cassia FOB levels (roughly EUR 2.3–2.8/kg for broken/split grades) to build coverage for bulk applications, while keeping some flexibility to capitalize on any temporary dips if farmer selling surges later in the harvest.
• Blenders and value‑adders: Explore blends that combine premium Indian Ceylon with cost‑effective Vietnamese cassia to manage input costs while preserving flavor profiles, especially for retail and food‑service channels sensitive to price changes.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, directional)

• India – New Delhi FOB (Ceylon & cassia): Prices are expected to remain firm to slightly higher (0–1% up) over the next three days, supported by tight physical availability and ongoing bullish sentiment in the spice complex.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (cassia grades): Prices are likely to trade steady to marginally higher (0–0.5% up) as exporters balance cheap raw material against cautious international demand, with no immediate weather or logistics shocks visible.