Hazelnuts: Georgia’s Value Shift Meets Softer Turkish Prices

Georgia’s hazelnut export data for March 2026 highlight a structural shift toward higher‑value shelled product, even as volumes ease, while regional price benchmarks show Turkish kernels softening from earlier highs. For European buyers, this combination of firmer Georgian unit values and weaker Turkish prices is reshaping origin spreads and procurement risk.

Georgia exported 1,300 tonnes of hazelnuts in March 2026, down 8% year on year, yet revenue jumped 39% to USD 14.3 million. The implied average export price rose from roughly EUR 7.3/kg in March 2025 to about EUR 10.1/kg in March 2026 (converted at ~0.92 EUR/USD), underscoring the growing dominance of shelled hazelnuts in the country’s export mix. Turkish supply, meanwhile, faces weaker demand and improved crop prospects, pressuring prices from their late‑2025 peak.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Current physical offers confirm Georgia’s premium over Turkey. In early May 2026, Georgian hazelnut kernels FCA Warsaw are indicated around:

• 11–13 mm: ~EUR 10.45/kg
• 13–15 mm: ~EUR 11.00/kg
• 15+ mm: ~EUR 11.20/kg

Comparable Turkish natural kernels FOB Istanbul are quoted near:

• 11–13 mm: ~EUR 8.05/kg
• 13–15 mm: ~EUR 8.53/kg
• Roasted meal/diced: ~EUR 6.60–7.60/kg

The roughly EUR 2–3/kg premium for Georgian kernels versus Turkish origin reflects both quality perception and the higher value share of processed product in Georgia’s export basket.

Origin & Grade	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)
GE kernels 11–13 mm	Warsaw, FCA	10.45
GE kernels 13–15 mm	Warsaw, FCA	11.00
GE kernels 15+ mm	Warsaw, FCA	11.20
TR kernels 11–13 mm	Istanbul, FOB	8.05
TR kernels 13–15 mm	Istanbul, FOB	8.53

🌍 Supply & Demand Structure

Georgia’s March 2026 export performance shows that the origin is prioritising value over volume. An 8% decline in monthly tonnage alongside a 39% rise in revenue points to a clear shift toward shelled kernels and processed formats, which command a significant premium to in‑shell nuts in EU and Middle Eastern markets.

From 1 August 2025 to 31 March 2026, Georgia shipped 10,700 tonnes of hazelnuts to the EU, with Italy, Spain, Germany, France and Greece as the core destinations. Additional flows to Syria (1,100 tonnes), Russia (557 tonnes) and Armenia (516 tonnes) underline Georgia’s role as a regional diversification origin alongside dominant Turkish supply.

Global fundamentals remain broadly comfortable but not excessive. Latest industry estimates put 2025/26 world hazelnut production around 1.08 million tonnes, down from roughly 1.25 million tonnes in 2024/25, with Türkiye still accounting for the bulk of supply and Georgia ranked third after Türkiye and Italy.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Competing Nuts

The price strength in Georgian hazelnut exports is occurring against a backdrop of softer Turkish prices. Between February and March 2026, the price of shelled Turkish hazelnuts (11/13 grade) delivered into Europe fell about 5%, reaching an eight‑month low and sitting roughly one‑third below September 2025 peaks. This reflects weaker global demand, reduced speculative activity and better‑than‑feared crop and stock levels.

Georgia’s nut complex is also being reshaped by almonds. In Q1 2026, Georgia imported 297 tonnes of almonds (+318% y/y), mainly from Azerbaijan, with value up 302% to USD 631,000. This surge suggests growing domestic consumption or re‑processing activity, potentially boosting regional competition for confectionery and snack formulations that can substitute between hazelnuts and almonds.

For European confectioners, the combination of elevated cocoa costs, high but easing hazelnut prices in Turkey and structurally higher Georgian kernel values increases the incentive to optimise nut blends and origin mixes to protect margins.

🌦 Weather & Short-Term Risks

Early May 2026 weather in the wider Black Sea region is currently cool and unsettled. A recent cold spell over Turkey and parts of Greece, linked to a low‑pressure system bringing colder, moist air from the Black Sea, has temporarily depressed temperatures below seasonal norms.

While such episodes can raise concern for flowering and early nut development in some orchards, conditions so far have not translated into a clearly defined production shock for the 2026 Turkish or Georgian crops. Market attention, however, will remain highly sensitive to any extended cool, wet phase during flowering or hot, dry spells later in the growing season, given hazelnuts’ perennial nature and Türkiye’s outsized role in global supply.

📆 Outlook & Trading Strategy

In the near term, the structural move toward shelled exports from Georgia underpins a firmer price floor for Georgian kernels, even if global prices soften at the margin. At the same time, weak demand and better supply visibility in Turkey argue for only limited upside in Turkish kernel prices unless weather or policy shocks emerge.

• For European buyers: Secure at least part of Q3–Q4 2026 Georgian kernel needs on dips, focusing on 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm where the premium to Turkey is stable but justified by quality and origin diversification.
• For processors using blends: Consider tactical substitution toward Turkish kernels or almond components where possible, using Georgia primarily as a strategic diversification and higher‑spec origin.
• For traders: Monitor the Georgia–Turkey kernel spread (currently ~EUR 2–3/kg) and weather‑driven volatility; short‑term mean‑reversion trades around Turkish price weakness look more attractive than outright long positions in premium Georgian kernels.

📉 3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Georgia kernels FCA Warsaw: Sideways to slightly firm around EUR 10.4–11.2/kg, supported by tight processed supply and strong EU demand for shelled product.
• Turkey kernels FOB Istanbul: Mildly soft to sideways around EUR 8.0–8.6/kg, reflecting weak export demand and comfortable stock/use ratios.
• EU delivered blended kernels: Stable with a slight easing bias as buyers leverage Turkish softness while keeping some cover in higher‑priced Georgian kernels.