India’s Soybean Squeeze: Rising Imports, Weak Prices and New Global Flows

India’s soybean market is tightening even as prices soften: production is down, non-GMO imports are surging from West Africa, and mandi prices sit below the Minimum Support Price, pressuring farmer margins but supporting crushers.

India is quietly shifting from a largely self-sufficient soybean model to a mixed import–domestic balance, with implications for global non-GMO flows and soya meal trade. A sharp production downgrade and steady domestic meal demand have opened the door to competitively priced imports, while a record Brazilian crop and contained global prices cap any strong near-term recovery in Indian farm gate values. European crushers and feed buyers should watch India more as a demand centre for beans and less as a reliable meal exporter, at least in the short run.

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📈 Prices & Local Market Dynamics

As of 12 April, India’s all-India average mandi soybean price is about $52.97 per 100 kg, down from $57.08 a month earlier and still above last year’s $45.14 for the same period. However, the current level remains below the government’s Minimum Support Price of $57.09 per quintal for the 2025 kharif season, leaving farmers in key states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra selling under the official floor. For processors, this creates a relatively comfortable raw material cost environment, even as farm economics deteriorate.

Internationally, soybean prices remain capped by ample supply. Brazil’s 2026 soybean crop is projected at a record 173–180 million tonnes, with official Brazilian statistics confirming new highs for the national oilseed harvest, supported by generally favourable weather and a partial recovery in southern states. CBOT futures have been trading in a relatively tight range in mid-April with robust open interest, suggesting active but not yet panicked risk positioning.

🌍 Supply & Demand Shifts

India’s domestic soybean output for the 2025–26 oil year has been revised down to about 11.03 million tonnes, from 12.88 million tonnes the year before. Market arrivals between October and March have slipped to roughly 6.3 million tonnes versus 7.2 million tonnes a year earlier, and crushing volumes have eased to around 5.7 million tonnes from 6.05 million tonnes. This tightening in available domestic supply is the key driver behind the recent import surge.

Soya meal production has held near 4.50 million tonnes, but exports between October and March have dropped by about 30% to 772,000 tonnes, down from 1.11 million tonnes previously. High domestic price expectations and competition from lower-cost origins such as Brazil and Argentina have eroded India’s export competitiveness. For European feed users, this means reduced availability of Indian soya meal and greater reliance on South American suppliers for competitively priced protein.

🚢 Import Surge & Trade Flows

In the current 2025–26 oil year (October start), India has already imported around 309,000 tonnes of soybeans, compared with just 2,000 tonnes in the same period a year ago—a nearly 150-fold increase. The acceleration has been particularly strong in the first quarter of 2026, as crushers looked offshore to bridge the gap between domestic availability and processing demand. Full-year imports are forecast near 600,000 tonnes, signalling a structural shift in India’s role in the global soybean market from near self-sufficiency to a notable premium buyer of non-GMO beans.

India allows only non-GMO soybean imports, and most of the recent inflow is coming from West African suppliers—especially Togo, Niger and Benin—which benefit from zero import duty under India’s preferential trade rules. This provides a cost advantage but introduces logistical and quality-management challenges for processors, who are still adapting crushing and blending strategies. For global traders, this creates a new, semi-regular outlet for West African non-GMO beans, potentially tightening available volumes for other non-GMO buyers, especially in Europe.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Context

Despite India’s tighter local balance, the global soybean outlook remains comfortable. Brazil’s 2025–26 crop is estimated near record highs around 175–180 million tonnes, with strong export and crush forecasts supported by favourable weather in key producing regions. The US balance sheet also points to adequate supplies, and global oilseed stocks are sufficient to prevent a sustained price spike, barring a major weather shock.

Within India, soya meal demand from the livestock and poultry feed sector is steady at roughly 3.25 million tonnes, while food-sector demand has softened slightly to around 420,000 tonnes. Combined with softer export demand and capped international prices, this equilibrium limits upside for domestic soybean prices even as local production falls. The key tension lies between farmer margins—eroded by sub-MSP mandi prices—and processor economics, which are currently supported by both weak domestic prices and competitively priced imports.

🌦️ Weather & Short-Term Outlook

In Brazil, lingering harvest delays in some central and southern regions are being monitored, but overall crop prospects remain strong and are not yet threatening the record output narrative. For India, the weather focus now shifts toward the upcoming monsoon outlook and kharif sowing window, where any signal of below-normal rainfall could quickly tighten the 2026–27 balance. However, in the immediate 2–4 week horizon, weather is not the primary driver; policy and trade flows are more critical.

Over the next month, Indian soybean prices are likely to stay under pressure unless the pace of imports slows materially or the government steps in with more aggressive procurement at MSP levels. If actual imports in 2025–26 approach or exceed the 600,000-tonne forecast, domestic prices could slip further below MSP, intensifying farmer distress just as planting decisions for the next kharif season are made.

💶 Indicative Price Levels (Converted to EUR)

Using an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR and 1 quintal = 100 kg, current spot and FOB indications translate roughly as follows:

Market / Product	Price (EUR / 100 kg)	Comment
India all-India mandi average (12 Apr)	≈ 49 EUR / 100 kg	Below MSP equivalent (~53 EUR / 100 kg)
FOB New Delhi soybeans (conventional)	≈ 93 EUR / 100 kg	Based on latest indicative offer at 1.00 EUR/kg
FOB Beijing soybeans (yellow, conventional)	≈ 72 EUR / 100 kg	Indicative export offer at 0.72 EUR/kg
FOB Washington, US No. 2 soybeans	≈ 60 EUR / 100 kg	Competitive vs India on export basis

📌 Trading & Procurement Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• European crushers: Monitor India’s rising non-GMO import demand from West Africa; this may tighten certain non-GMO origins and modestly support premiums, but abundant Brazilian supply should cap outright price rallies.
• Feed manufacturers: Do not rely on a quick rebound in Indian soya meal exports—alternative coverage from Brazil and Argentina remains advisable, especially for spot and nearby positions.
• Indian crushers: Current margins are supported by sub-MSP domestic beans and duty-free West African imports; consider locking in import volumes while global prices remain anchored by record Brazilian output.
• Producers in India: With mandi prices below MSP and further downside risk if imports reach or exceed 600,000 tonnes, hedging through forward sales or diversification into alternative kharif crops should be considered where feasible.

📆 3-Day Directional Price View (Key References, in EUR)

• CBOT soybeans (reference, converted to EUR): Sideways to mildly firm over the next three sessions as the market digests record South American supply but steady global demand.
• India domestic mandi prices: Slight downside bias, with continued pressure from imports and lack of strong policy support in the immediate term.
• FOB offers China / US / India: Expected broadly stable in EUR terms, with minor day-to-day moves tracking CBOT and FX but no strong directional catalyst in the next 3 days.

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