Mexican Chickpea FOB Prices Ease Slightly as India Trades Sideways

Mexican chickpea export prices have eased slightly this week, while Indian values are broadly steady under strong policy support. The near‑term bias is for a sideways to mildly softer market from Mexico, constrained by still‑firm global demand for Kabuli chickpeas.

Mexican offers for dried Kabuli chickpeas ex‑Mexico City are down week‑on‑week in both large (42–44 count, 12 mm) and smaller (75–80 count, 8 mm) sizes, narrowing the premium over Indian origin. India’s domestic chickpea market is effectively range‑bound, with state procurement policies setting a floor and import competition capping rallies, which stabilizes global benchmarks . Demand indicators across pulses and plant‑based foods remain positive, with the global chickpea market expected to keep growing at roughly 7% annually through 2032 . Weather in key northern Mexican pulse areas looks seasonally normal in late April, reducing immediate weather risk for sowing and early crop development .

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices converted to EUR using ~0.93 EUR/USD for late April 2026.

Origin	Grade / Count	Location & Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	WoW change (EUR/kg)
Mexico	Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm	Mexico City FOB	≈ 1.12	≈ -0.04
Mexico	Smaller 75–80, 8 mm	Mexico City FOB	≈ 0.71	≈ -0.01
India	Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm	New Delhi FOB	≈ 0.81	≈ +0.01
India	Kabuli 44–46, 11 mm	New Delhi FOB	≈ 0.84	≈ +0.01
India	Medium 58–60, 9–10 mm	New Delhi FOB	≈ 0.86–0.87	≈ +0.01

Mexican large Kabuli retains a sizeable premium of roughly EUR 0.30/kg over comparable Indian 42–44 count, reflecting quality and freight advantages into the Americas and some Mediterranean destinations. Indian offers remain competitive into Europe, the Middle East and Africa, supported by stable domestic prices and active government procurement .

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

In India, chickpea prices are currently “bracketed” between an expanding state procurement program that underpins farm‑gate values and imported Australian/Tanzanian chickpeas that cap upside, keeping the market broadly steady in late April . This policy‑driven stability in the world’s key chickpea producer provides a relatively firm reference for global Kabuli and Desi prices and limits the risk of a sharp downside break.

On the demand side, structural growth continues: global chickpea market size is projected to rise from about USD 18.6 billion in 2026 to nearly USD 28 billion by 2032, implying close to 7% annual growth on the back of plant‑based protein trends and broader pulse consumption . This underpins medium‑term support for both Mexican and Indian export prices even as near‑term trade flows respond to local harvests, currency moves and freight costs.

⛅ Weather Outlook – Mexico (Key Chickpea Belt)

Short‑term weather in northern and central Mexico, including chickpea areas in Chihuahua and neighbouring highland states, shows seasonally warm conditions with limited rainfall over the coming days . Temperatures remain within normal late‑April ranges, with no major heat spikes or heavy storm systems flagged.

These conditions are broadly neutral for soil preparation and early field operations, suggesting limited immediate weather‑related price risk for the next week. Any shift toward hotter‑and‑drier or stormier patterns into May would warrant closer monitoring, but for now weather is not a primary driver of Mexican chickpea price moves.

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

• Mexico: Slight softening in FOB offers suggests adequate nearby availability and some pressure from competitive Indian and Australian origins into key import markets. No acute local supply stress is visible in the very short term.
• India: Government procurement at Minimum Support Price levels is absorbing part of the new crop, effectively setting a floor, while active imports and comfortable port stocks prevent rallies, resulting in a stable, sideways price band for chana/chickpeas .
• Global demand: Continued growth in both dry and canned chickpea segments, especially for hummus and meat‑alternative products, supports a firm underlying demand baseline despite short‑term regional supply shifts .

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Mexican sellers: With modest week‑on‑week declines and neutral weather, consider locking medium‑term contracts on remaining 2025/26 stock rather than chasing higher levels. The Indian policy‑stabilized floor reduces downside risk but also limits upside spikes in export markets.
• Importers in EU & MENA: The current narrowing of the Mexico–India price spread offers an opportunity to diversify origin while Mexican Kabuli retains a quality premium. Stagger purchases over the coming weeks to benefit from any additional softness, especially in smaller calibres.
• Risk factors to watch: Potential policy or logistics shifts in India (procurement pace, import rules) and any abrupt weather anomalies in Mexican chickpea belts that could alter 2026/27 supply expectations.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction – Key Origins (EUR, indicative)

• Mexico, Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm, Mexico City FOB: ≈ EUR 1.10–1.15/kg; bias sideways to slightly softer as buyers test lower bids but demand remains active.
• Mexico, smaller 75–80, 8 mm, Mexico City FOB: ≈ EUR 0.70–0.73/kg; bias sideways, with discounts versus large sizes broadly stable.
• India, Kabuli export grades, New Delhi FOB: ≈ EUR 0.80–0.88/kg for 42–48 counts; bias sideways, anchored by state procurement and capped by import competition .