Rapeseed steady on MATIF while Black Sea basis softens

Rapeseed futures on Euronext remain broadly stable with a firm nearby structure, while physical Black Sea offers ease slightly, signaling a balanced but fragile market ahead of the new crop.

Rapeseed prices on MATIF are consolidating at relatively high levels, with May 2026 around EUR 548/t and new-crop 2026/27 contracts clustered just above EUR 500/t. The forward curve stays slightly inverse from old to new crop, reflecting still‑tight nearby supply and cautious expectations for 2026 harvest availability. In contrast, Ukrainian FCA bids have edged down in recent days, suggesting softer Black Sea basis and ongoing competition into EU crushers. Overall, the market trades in a narrow range, with participants watching planting and weather developments for the coming weeks.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Rapeseed on Euronext (MATIF) closed on 23 April 2026 with no daily change across the curve:

• May 2026: EUR 547.75/t
• Aug 2026: EUR 509.00/t
• Nov 2026: EUR 512.00/t
• Feb 2027: EUR 510.00/t
• May 2027: EUR 508.00/t
• Out to May 2028: around EUR 495–500/t

The curve shows a firm old-crop premium versus new crop, but values from Aug 2026 onward are tightly grouped in a narrow EUR 490–515/t band, indicating a market that sees limited directional conviction in the medium term.

Contract / Origin	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR)	Comment
Rapeseed May 26	Euronext MATIF	547.75 €/t	Nearby, no daily change
Rapeseed Nov 26	Euronext MATIF	512.00 €/t	First main new-crop reference
Rapeseed Feb 27	Euronext MATIF	510.00 €/t	Flat vs. Nov 26
Rape seeds 42% (UA)	Kyiv, FCA	~610 €/t	Slightly softer vs. mid‑April
Rape seeds 42% (UA)	Odesa, FCA	~620 €/t	Down from 0.62–0.63 €/kg range
Rapeseed (FR)	Paris, FOB	~570 €/t	Stable in recent weeks

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The unchanged MATIF settlement across the curve and the tight clustering of new‑crop prices point to a broadly balanced outlook. Crushers still value nearby coverage, reflected in the premium of May 2026 versus forward months, but are reluctant to chase prices higher into the next season.

Ukrainian FCA offers have eased by around 1–2% since late March, indicating improving export availability and competitive pressure into EU markets. French FOB values around EUR 570/t remain broadly aligned with MATIF, suggesting that European origin continues to set the reference for coastal demand while Black Sea supplies adjust in the background.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Flat daily move on MATIF: The lack of change on 23 April across all listed contracts underscores a pause after previous gains, with participants awaiting clearer signals on new‑crop yields and oilseed complex direction.
• Inverse structure: The spread between May 2026 (EUR 547.75/t) and the 2027–2028 strip around EUR 495–510/t reflects current tightness in seed and oil, as well as risk premiums for old‑crop logistics and crush margins.
• Black Sea softness: UA FCA prices in Kyiv and Odesa have slipped from 0.61–0.62 €/kg in late March to about 0.60–0.61 €/kg by 23 April, pointing to slightly weaker basis and ongoing competition among exporters.
• European reference role: French Paris FOB levels at roughly 0.57 €/kg (~EUR 570/t) have been stable since late March, anchoring regional price expectations.

⛅ Weather & New-Crop Outlook

With the forward curve already pricing a moderate discount for 2026/27, weather over the coming weeks will be crucial for confirming or challenging the current valuation. Any sustained dryness or cold stress in key EU rapeseed regions or in the Black Sea could quickly widen the inverse and support nearby contracts.

Conversely, if weather remains broadly favorable and planting/emergence progress is maintained, the market may see more pressure on the old‑crop premium and a test of the lower end of the new‑crop range near EUR 490/t.

📆 Trading Outlook & Price Direction (3-Day)

• Producers: The firm May 2026 level near EUR 548/t offers attractive pricing for remaining old‑crop volumes; consider incremental hedging while maintaining some exposure in case of short‑term weather or oilseed complex rallies.
• Crushers: With new‑crop MATIF around EUR 510–512/t, extending coverage modestly into Nov 2026–Feb 2027 appears reasonable, but avoid over‑coverage given balanced fundamentals and still‑elevated old‑crop premiums.
• Traders: Focus on relative value: the narrow spreads Aug 2026–Feb 2027 favor spread trading rather than large outright directional bets, while monitoring Black Sea basis for additional downside or stabilization signals.

Over the next three trading days, Euronext rapeseed is likely to remain range‑bound, with May 2026 expected to hold broadly in the mid‑EUR 540s–550s/t. New‑crop contracts (Aug–Nov 2026) should continue to trade tightly around the EUR 500–515/t zone unless significant weather or macro‑oilseed news emerges.