Raisin prices hold firm as Indian supply recovers and premium grades stay tight

Raisin prices are broadly stable to slightly firmer, with Turkish sultanas holding elevated levels and Indian FOB values moving sideways to marginally softer, supported by adequate near‑term availability but tightness in top grades. A heatwave pattern over Maharashtra in mid‑April favours drying conditions and limits fresh weather risk to the current crop.

India’s raisin market is entering the hot, dry summer with stable FOB prices and cautious export buying, as earlier weather‑related crop losses keep overall availability tighter than usual but not acutely short. Domestic demand is seasonally moderate after the main winter festivals, while European and Middle Eastern buyers are price‑sensitive yet still reliant on Türkiye and India for consistent quality. Freight premia and regional geopolitical risks keep upside risk alive for premium origins, but in the very short term, trade flows remain smooth and price action is range‑bound rather than directional.

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📈 Prices

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR/kg for comparability.

Origin / Location	Type / Grade	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Direction
Türkiye – Malatya	Sultanas type 9, grade A	FOB	≈2.55	▲ (up from ≈2.35)
Türkiye – Malatya	Sultanas type 10, grade A	FOB	≈2.85	▲ (up from ≈2.65)
Türkiye – Malatya	Sultanas type 9, RTU	CIF	≈2.40	▶ (stable)
India – New Delhi	Golden raisin AA	FOB	≈2.27	▼ (slightly softer)
India – New Delhi	Brown raisin AA	FOB	≈1.81	▼ (slightly softer)
India – New Delhi	Black raisin AA	FOB	≈1.75	▼ (slightly softer)
Netherlands – Dordrecht	CN sultanas no. 9 AA (ex‑China)	FCA	≈2.12	▼ (marginally lower)
Netherlands – Dordrecht	TR sultanas no. 9 RTU	FCA	≈2.82	▼ (slightly lower)

This structure confirms the premium still commanded by Turkish high‑grade sultanas versus Indian and Chinese material, with most spot changes in the last week confined to narrow 0.03–0.20 EUR/kg bands.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Global dried grape supply into 2025/26 remains relatively tight at the premium end, after earlier weather problems in several origins and smaller carry‑in stocks, but overall production is sufficient to meet current demand according to the latest international industry review.  European buyers continue to lean heavily on Türkiye as their key supplier, with the UK, Netherlands and Germany absorbing the bulk of Turkish exports. 

In India, Maharashtra’s Nashik and Sangli/Tasgaon belt dominates grape and raisin output.  Earlier seasons saw heavy damage to grape crops from unseasonal rains and inadequate sunlight, sharply curbing available fruit for both wine and raisin industries and contributing to reduced raisin export volumes through 2025.  Current trade commentary, however, suggests Indian raisin FOB prices are now broadly steady as summer sets in, with sufficient stocks to cover near‑term demand and no immediate sign of physical shortage. 

Demand from confectionery, bakery and dry‑fruit retail segments is improving seasonally worldwide, and recent analysis highlights particularly strong buying interest from India and other Asian markets, even as European import quotations appear flat on the surface.  At the same time, conflict‑related disruptions around Iran and the Gulf region are constraining some premium flows and raising freight costs along key corridors, which supports prices of higher quality origins despite otherwise comfortable availability. 

📊 Fundamentals & Weather (India focus)

For the current window (17–20 April 2026), the India Meteorological Department and national media report a prevailing heatwave across Maharashtra, with maximum temperatures expected to exceed 38°C in many districts and little rainfall in the immediate forecast.  This pattern has followed a brief spell of unseasonal rains and hail activity in late March and early April which affected parts of the state but did not generate major new damage headlines in the grape belt. 

For raisin producers in Nashik, Sangli and nearby districts, the current hot, dry conditions are broadly supportive of drying and storage, reducing short‑term weather risk to existing stocks and late‑season drying lots. The more significant fundamental constraint remains the reduced underlying grape crop from the earlier season, which has already been reflected in tighter 2025 export volumes and underpins today’s floor under Indian FOB prices. 

📆 3‑Day Price Outlook (Key Origins)

• India – New Delhi FOB (black/brown/golden AA): With steady domestic stocks, modest export interest and supportive drying weather in Maharashtra, prices are expected to remain in a narrow range around current levels (±0.02–0.03 EUR/kg) over the next three days.
• Türkiye – Malatya FOB (sultanas 8/9/10): Tight global premium supply and firm European demand argue for stable to slightly firm values, but no sharp moves are expected in the next 72 hours absent fresh currency or policy shocks.
• EU near‑port stocks (Netherlands, Germany): FCA quotations for mixed origins should stay broadly unchanged, with minor tactical discounts possible on Chinese and feed‑grade lots as logistics remain fluid and demand is balanced.

🧭 Trading Outlook

• Buyers in India and Asia: Use current stability to secure nearby and early Q3 coverage in Indian AA grades, focusing on black and brown raisins where the discount to Turkish material remains attractive and heatwave conditions support quality.
• European importers: Maintain core positions in Turkish sultanas for quality‑sensitive applications but explore partial substitution with Indian and Chinese origins for price‑sensitive blends, given the still‑wide premium and stable logistics into EU ports. 
• Producers in Maharashtra: Consider incremental sales into any price strength triggered by freight or geopolitical news, as the current combination of adequate stocks and firm but not explosive demand favours a disciplined, phased selling strategy rather than aggressive front‑loaded offers. 

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