Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Europe continue to drift slightly lower, while Turkish origin remains underpinned by high domestic costs. The market tone is calm, with no fresh weather or supply shock in key Black Sea orchards, keeping spot values orderly but still historically elevated in EUR terms.
European buyers see a mildly softer environment for Georgian kernels as earlier tightness from the 2025 crop eases and export flows normalize. At the same time, Turkey’s structural cost inflation and still‑reduced 2025/26 crop keep a floor under FOB quotes, limiting downside. With no immediate weather threat in western Georgia, near‑term price action is likely to stay in a narrow, slightly softening range for Georgian origin, while Turkish offers trade sideways to slightly firm on cost support rather than demand strength.
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📈 Prices & Recent Moves
Latest indications for Georgian hazelnut kernels (origin GE, FCA Warsaw, converted to EUR) show a modest week-on-week easing across key calibres, extending the slow downtrend that started in late March. Turkish FOB Istanbul quotes in EUR, while slightly cheaper per kg, remain broadly stable compared with early April levels, reflecting persistent cost pressures.
| Origin / Type | Location / Term | Calibre | Latest price (EUR/kg) | WoW change (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia kernels | Warsaw, FCA | 11–13 mm | ≈10.75 | -0.20 |
| Georgia kernels | Warsaw, FCA | 13–15 mm | ≈11.30 | -0.10 |
| Georgia kernels | Warsaw, FCA | 15+ mm | ≈11.55 | -0.10 |
| Turkey kernels | Istanbul, FOB | 11–13 mm | ≈8.33 | +0.08 |
| Turkey kernels | Istanbul, FOB | 13–15 mm | ≈8.81 | +0.07 |
| Turkey kernels roasted | Istanbul, FOB | meal / diced | ≈6.90–7.90 | -0.30 to -0.40 |
Recent international commentary notes that Georgian and Turkish kernel prices softened modestly through March but remain high after the earlier rally driven by a tight 2025 crop.
🌍 Supply, Demand & Fundamentals
Global fundamentals are tighter than a year ago. Latest industry balance sheets show world hazelnut total supply in 2025/26 down versus 2024/25, driven mainly by a sharp crop reduction in Turkey (around 518,000 t vs 785,000 t previously), while Georgia’s crop is seen broadly steady near 45,000 t with similar beginning and ending stocks. This keeps overall inventories contained despite good crops in some secondary origins.
In Turkey, strong domestic inflation, higher labour and energy costs and a smaller crop have pushed up farmgate and kernel prices, even as export volumes and values fell in 2025 compared with the previous year. Georgia, by contrast, has focused on improving orchard management and export capacity; a government-backed subsidy program supports orchard rehabilitation and quality improvements through 2025, reinforcing its role as a reliable kernel supplier to the EU.
On the demand side, confectionery and snack industries in Europe are largely well covered into mid‑year, but still show steady baseline demand. Earlier price spikes have encouraged some thrifting and recipe optimization, tempering incremental buying at current elevated EUR levels. The resulting picture is one of balanced fundamentals: no immediate scarcity, but also no significant surplus that would trigger a sharp price correction.
⛅ Weather Outlook – Western Georgia (GE)
Weather in key Georgian hazelnut regions (western Georgia along the Black Sea, including Samegrelo and Guria) over the next three days is forecast to remain seasonally mild with no severe frost risk. Public forecasts for the Black Sea coastal belt indicate typical late‑April conditions, with moderate temperatures and only scattered showers, supportive for ongoing vegetative development and early nut set.
Given that the most weather‑sensitive flowering period has largely passed without major reported frost or storm damage, traders currently assign low probability to a near‑term supply shock from Georgian orchards. Barring an unexpected cold spell later in spring, the 2026 crop outlook for Georgia remains cautiously stable, which aligns with the slight easing bias seen in recent kernel offers.
📊 Market Drivers to Watch
- Turkish crop and policy signals: Any update on Turkey’s 2026 crop prospects or changes in support prices and state‑backed buying could quickly affect global price benchmarks, given Turkey’s dominant share.
- Georgian export strategy: With export‑oriented policies and quality programs in place, Georgia is likely to maintain or slightly grow its kernel share into the EU, contributing to competitive offers versus Turkish origin.
- Macro and FX: Continued high inflation and currency volatility in Turkey keep local production costs elevated in lira terms, indirectly supporting EUR‑denominated FOB prices despite only moderate global demand.
- Confectionery demand: Seasonal buying for confectionery and snacks remains steady; any stronger‑than‑expected recovery in European consumer spending could tighten the balance again in Q3 2026.
📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Bias
Directional view (next 3 days):
- Georgian kernels, FCA Warsaw (EUR): Slightly soft to sideways. Stable weather and adequate near‑term availability suggest mild further easing of around EUR 0.05–0.10/kg is possible for standard 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm, especially for prompt shipments.
- Turkish kernels, FOB Istanbul (EUR): Sideways to slightly firm. Cost support from domestic inflation and a smaller 2025/26 crop point to a tight floor under prices; short‑term downside looks limited without a demand shock.
Practical recommendations:
- Buyers (industry/roasters in Europe): Use the current mild dip in Georgian offers to extend coverage into Q3 2026 for key calibres (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm), but avoid heavy over‑buying given still‑high absolute EUR levels and stable crop weather.
- Buyers needing Turkish origin: Consider staggered purchases rather than waiting for significantly lower prices, as structural cost inflation and smaller crops in Turkey are likely to cap any near‑term downside.
- Producers/sellers in Georgia: Maintain competitive EUR pricing versus Turkish kernels while watching for any weather surprises; locking in forward contracts on current levels can secure margins if global prices soften later with a normal 2026 harvest.
Overall, the 3‑day outlook is for modest further softness in Georgian kernels and broadly stable Turkish FOB levels, within a relatively narrow trading band as the market awaits clearer signals on the upcoming 2026 harvests.
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