Indian Peanut Prices Ease Slightly as Heat Wave Meets Softer Buying

Indian peanut prices in Gujarat and Delhi have softened marginally from mid‑April highs, with bold and java grades now edging lower but still trading in a relatively narrow band. Extreme heat in Gujarat and North India over the coming days may temporarily slow arrivals, yet comfortable stocks and steady but unspectacular demand point to broadly sideways prices rather than a sharp correction.

India’s peanut market enters early May with mixed signals: domestic mandis report broadly steady to slightly softer groundnut values, while export demand from Asia keeps a floor under higher grades. Weather in Gujarat and New Delhi is turning excessively hot and hazy, which can tighten near‑term physical availability, but robust rabi sowing and an overall well‑supplied oilseed complex limit upside. Traders should expect a narrow trading range, with modest grade‑by‑grade adjustments rather than aggressive price moves.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and expressed in EUR/kg (ex‑India, converted from INR and USD references where needed).

Origin / Market	Specification	Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1 Week Ago (EUR/kg)	Trend
Gujarat – Gondal	Bold 40–50	FCA	≈1.01	≈1.03	⬇ mild
New Delhi	Bold 50–60	FCA	≈1.00	≈1.02	⬇ mild
New Delhi	Bold 60–70	FCA	≈0.97	≈0.98	⬇ slight
New Delhi	Java 50–60	FCA	≈1.17	≈1.18	⬇ slight
New Delhi	Java 60–70	FCA	≈1.01	≈1.02	⬇ slight
New Delhi	Java 70–80	FCA	≈0.92	≈0.94	⬇ mild

These levels are broadly consistent with live mandi data signalling steady to slightly softer groundnut prices across India, with average modal rates near the equivalent of 0.75–0.80 EUR/kg for split or undifferentiated grades depending on state and quality. Overall, Indian peanuts remain competitively priced versus other origins, with Brazilian raw peanuts generally offered higher on a EUR basis.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

Recent analysis of India’s oilseed sector points to a comfortable supply backdrop: strong rabi sowing and expectations of higher 2025/26 world peanut production, including in India, are capping any sustained rally. Export demand from Asia, particularly China and other regional buyers, continues to underpin flows of Indian peanuts and peanut oil, but without the sharp spikes seen in earlier seasons.

Domestically, reports from Gujarat and North India describe firm but not tight physical availability, with crushers and shellers buying steadily while some buyers step back on global macro uncertainty and weaker edible oil demand. Groundnut mandis have shown a wide range of prices by state and quality, reflecting both grade premiums and localised arrival pressure. Overall, the balance of comfortable stocks and selective export buying favours a sideways to slightly soft tone for ordinary grades, while premium java and birdfeed qualities are better supported.

Weather is a short‑term watchpoint. Forecasts for Gondal (Gujarat) and New Delhi through May 4 indicate persistent heat and hazy sunshine, with daytime highs around 39–42°C and only isolated thunderstorms possible around Delhi. Such conditions can briefly slow harvesting, drying and transport, tightening daily arrivals and supporting spot prices, but they are not currently severe enough or prolonged enough to threaten the standing crop or materially shift the seasonal supply outlook.

📊 Fundamentals & Trade Context

Indian peanut export prices firmed through April, moving in a narrow but slightly upward band on strong domestic and export demand, before showing signs of levelling off as early May begins. Broader trade data suggest India’s merchandise exports are growing moderately, with non‑oil exports – a basket that includes oilseeds and processed foods – expected to rise by around 11% year‑on‑year in Q1 FY2026, reinforcing the role of agri‑commodities in export growth.

At the same time, some reports from Delhi mandis highlight slower buying interest for peanuts and edible oils amid global tensions and softer consumer demand, which is weighing on spot sentiment. However, international interest in Indian value‑added peanut products (such as peanut butter and snack ingredients) is gradually increasing, which could support demand for higher‑grade kernels and splits over the medium term even if raw kernel prices stay range‑bound in the short run.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Bias: Sideways to slightly soft. Comfortable stocks, a broadly well‑supplied oilseed complex and cautious demand point to a narrow trading band for Indian peanuts over the next week, with only short‑lived weather‑related spikes.
• Farmers (Gujarat / North India): Consider scaling up sales on any intraday strength triggered by heat‑related arrival dips, especially for bold 40–50 and 50–60 grades where downside is limited but upside also looks capped in the near term.
• Domestic crushers & shellers: Use current mild softness in bold 60–70 and java 70–80 to extend coverage for May–June, prioritising consistent quality and moisture as heat increases post‑harvest handling risks.
• Exporters (FOB India): With global demand steady but not booming, focus offers on higher‑margin java and processed grades, using competitive EUR‑denominated pricing to lock in forward contracts while freight and logistics remain relatively stable.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only, EUR/kg)

• Gujarat – Gondal, Bold 40–50 (FCA): ≈1.00–1.02, bias: sideways to slightly firm as heat trims arrivals.
• New Delhi, Bold 50–60 (FCA): ≈0.99–1.01, bias: sideways; demand remains cautious but not weak.
• New Delhi, Java 50–60 (FCA): ≈1.16–1.19, bias: broadly steady with export interest capping downside.