Rapeseed futures on Euronext remain historically firm but show a clear downward curve beyond nearby contracts, while Ukrainian physical prices edge slightly higher on stable demand and logistics risk.
The market is currently balancing tight old-crop availability against expectations of more comfortable 2026/27 supplies. Nearby MATIF May 2026 trades around EUR 596/t, with new-crop August–November 2026 down near EUR 521–524/t, signalling a softer forward outlook despite robust spot values. Ukrainian FCA rapeseed in Odesa and Kyiv holds in a narrow EUR 610–620/t range equivalent, with a mild week-on-week uptick, suggesting steady crush and export interest. ICE canola’s recent strength supports oilseed values overall but has not yet pushed MATIF or Black Sea basis sharply higher.
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📈 Prices & Curve Structure
The Euronext rapeseed curve shows a pronounced backwardation from old to new crop. May 2026 is indicated at about EUR 596.5/t, while August and November 2026 contracts trade around EUR 521.5/t and EUR 524/t respectively. Further out, February and May 2027 are near EUR 523–521/t, and 2027/28 positions cluster around EUR 486–490/t, pointing to expectations of gradually easing tightness.
In Canada, ICE canola futures strengthened recently, with front months around CAD 740–770/t (roughly EUR 500–520/t equivalent), adding a supportive undertone to the global oilseed complex. This limits downside for European rapeseed despite the softer forward MATIF curve.
🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot
Old-crop supplies in Europe remain tight, reflected in the premium of nearby MATIF to forward contracts. Crushers continue to compete for remaining farmer-held stocks, while some buyers are already shifting coverage toward new-crop positions at a discount of roughly EUR 70–75/t to May 2026.
Ukrainian rapeseed offers (42% min oil, FCA Odesa and Kyiv) are quoted around EUR 0.61–0.62/kg (approximately EUR 610–620/t), slightly above last week, indicating stable export and crush demand. French FOB rapeseed indications around EUR 0.57/kg (~EUR 570/t) underline Europe’s competitive position in the export market versus Black Sea origins.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather
The backwardated MATIF structure suggests the market expects improved 2026/27 availability, likely on the back of reasonably good planting progress and normal yield assumptions in key EU producers and Ukraine. However, the relatively small carry into 2027/28 (contracts around EUR 486–490/t) still embeds a weather and geopolitical risk premium.
Weather over the coming days in major European rapeseed regions is closely watched, but no immediate, extreme stress signal is yet reflected in prices. With canola firm in Canada and energy markets relatively supportive, rapeseed oil values should continue to underpin seed prices even if meal demand remains more subdued.
📆 Trading Outlook
- Producers (EU/Ukraine): Consider incremental hedging of 2026/27 production at current MATIF new-crop levels around EUR 520–525/t, which still embed a meaningful risk premium versus long-term averages.
- Crushers: Nearby coverage remains key given tight old-crop supplies; use any pullbacks in ICE canola or energy markets to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026.
- Importers/End-users: Monitor the basis between Ukrainian FCA and MATIF; current EUR 610–620/t FCA levels look competitive but could soften if new-crop yield prospects improve and logistics risks ease.
📉 3‑Day Price Indication
- MATIF rapeseed (May 2026): Likely to trade sideways to slightly softer around EUR 590–605/t, tracking broader oilseed sentiment.
- MATIF new-crop (Aug–Nov 2026): Bias for a narrow range near EUR 515–525/t, unless significant weather or macro shocks emerge.
- Black Sea / Ukraine FCA: Rapeseed offers in Odesa and Kyiv expected to hold in the EUR 610–625/t band, with modest upside risk tied to logistics and canola strength.
