Seasonal Demand Lull Keeps Cashew Market Soft but Stable

Indian cashew prices softened modestly last week as seasonal demand faded, but the correction remains orderly and supply-driven pressure is limited, keeping the short‑term outlook mildly bearish rather than outright weak.

Rising summer temperatures across India are curbing household and retail appetite for premium nuts just as the key October–April wedding and festival season ends. This has taken the support out from under cashews and other dry fruits, leading to synchronized declines rather than a cashew‑specific shock. For European buyers, the current dip in Indian wholesale prices and broadly steady export offers translates into a window for cautious forward procurement before pre‑festival restocking starts to tighten the market again from July.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

The benchmark Indian 180‑count cashew kernel grade in Delhi wholesale markets eased by roughly ₹20–₹30 per kg week on week, trading around ₹1,100–₹1,130 per kg. In euro terms, this corresponds to approximately €11–€11.30 per kg at wholesale level, marking a modest but clear softening from earlier festival‑season peaks.

Forward indications for the next 2–4 weeks suggest a trading range of about ₹1,080–₹1,150 per kg (≈€10.80–€11.50 per kg) for 180‑count kernels, with only limited downside expected. Parallel declines in almonds, raisins, figs and pine nuts confirm the move as part of a broader dry‑fruit correction rather than an idiosyncratic cashew event.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

India remains the world’s largest cashew processor and a major consumer, importing raw nuts mainly from West Africa (Ivory Coast, Ghana, Tanzania, Guinea‑Bissau) for processing in western and southern coastal states before distribution domestically and for export. The current weakness is overwhelmingly demand‑led: there are no reported disruptions or surges on the raw nut supply side that would justify a sharper price break.

Domestic demand follows a pronounced seasonal pattern. Consumption peaks from October through April, supported by winter snacking and heavy use of cashews in sweets and gifting during the extended wedding and festival calendar. As temperatures climb through May and June, this seasonal pillar fades, leaving the market more exposed to importer selling and any incremental supply, and typically generating a soft patch in prices.

📊 Fundamentals & International Context

Export demand for Indian processed kernels, an important secondary outlet, has not emerged as a major driver of the latest price move, underlining the domestic, seasonal character of the current correction. Processed 180‑count kernels traded in Delhi reflect product that has already moved through the import and processing chain rather than raw‑nut spot dynamics at origin.

Indicative export‑oriented kernel prices for common grades (e.g. W240, W320, W450 and pieces) have been broadly steady in recent days, with only marginal month‑on‑month adjustments in euro terms. This relative stability in export offers, alongside softer Indian domestic values, supports slightly better procurement margins for European snack, bakery and confectionery buyers sourcing from India and Vietnam.

📆 Short-Term Outlook

Through the next two to four weeks, cashew prices are likely to remain soft to sideways, with the 180‑count benchmark hovering in the projected ₹1,080–₹1,150 per kg (≈€10.80–€11.50 per kg) band. A sharper downward correction appears unlikely in the absence of additional supply‑side pressure from West African raw nut arrivals or an abrupt weakening of export interest.

From July onward, the approach of India’s pre‑festival procurement cycle typically brings a gradual rebuilding of domestic demand. That seasonal turn, combined with any tightening in raw‑nut availability, could cap the current buyer’s market and lend firmer undertones to kernel prices into Q3.

🧭 Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• European buyers: Use the current seasonal lull to secure a portion of Q3–Q4 kernel needs, focusing on large grades (180‑count/W240/W320) where Delhi wholesale softness is most visible.
• Importers/processors: Avoid aggressive selling at further discounts; with no strong supply overhang reported, maintaining offers within the forecast range appears prudent.
• Retailers in India: Consider limited restocking at current levels, but keep inventory lean into June, with a view to building positions more meaningfully from July as festival‑related demand re‑emerges.

📉 3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR terms)

Market	Product	Price indication (EUR/kg)	3‑day bias
Delhi wholesale	180‑count kernels	≈€11.0–€11.3	Slightly softer / sideways
India export (FOB)	W320 kernels	≈€6.1–€6.3	Sideways
Vietnam export (FOB)	WW320 kernels	≈€6.1–€6.4	Sideways