Almonds: Export-Driven Rebound Meets Cautious Price Optimism

U.S. almonds are firmly in recovery mode after March shipments surged 16.5% year-on-year to 258 million lbs, driven by strong exports and healthy forward sales. Prices in EUR currently look broadly stable but under selective upward pressure where supply from competing origins is constrained.

Momentum has clearly improved compared with earlier in the season: the shipment deficit has narrowed, export demand is broad-based, and commitments are robust. At the same time, demand remains uneven across regions, domestic offtake is still lagging, and buyers are reluctant to lock in long-term coverage before clearer guidance from upcoming acreage and crop forecasts. For now, the market is balancing stronger exports against still-comfortable inventories, keeping price risks tilted slightly to the upside into mid‑2026.

📈 Prices & Market Mood

Spot and nearby prices for U.S. almond kernels have been stable to slightly firmer in recent weeks. U.S. Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 kernels are offered around EUR 6.7/kg and EUR 6.65/kg (FAS US), while organic Nonpareil 27/30 is near EUR 9.3/kg (FOB US). Spanish Valencia and Guara types mostly trade in a EUR 5.5–6.1/kg band FOB Spain, with Marcona commanding a premium near EUR 6.6–8.9/kg.

Compared with late March, the price structure shows only marginal changes, suggesting that the strong March shipment data have tightened sentiment more than they have yet shifted absolute price levels. External benchmarks indicate California kernels for India trading roughly in a EUR 5.85–6.35/kg band, reinforcing the picture of mild firmness within a relatively narrow range.      

Origin / Type	Specification	Location & Terms	Indicative price (EUR/kg)
US	Carmel, SSR 18/20	FAS US	6.70
US	Carmel, SSR 20/22	FAS US	6.65
US	Nonpareil, 27/30, organic	FOB US	9.32
Spain	Valencia 12/14	FOB ES	5.55
Spain	Guara S/14	FOB ES	6.10
Spain	Marcona 12/14	FOB ES	6.60

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

March 2026 shipments reached 258.0 million lbs (117,028 t), well above expectations of 228 million lbs and up 16.5% year-on-year. Exports were the main driver at 205.2 million lbs (+21.0% YoY), while domestic shipments rose modestly to 52.8 million lbs (+1.9% YoY). Exports represented 78% of total March shipments, exceeding both the Almond Board forecast of 75% and the three-year average of 73%, underscoring the system’s growing dependence on international buyers.

On a season-to-date basis (August–March), total shipments stand at 1,775.8 million lbs, just 1.9% below last year and improving from a 4.4% deficit in February. This narrowing gap confirms that the pace of offtake is recovering as the season progresses, with several handlers reporting their strongest monthly volume since late 2025.   

📊 Regional Demand Patterns

• India: March shipments of 39.2 million lbs; season-to-date 252.3 million lbs, down 3% YoY. Demand remains sizeable but price-sensitive, with some near-term softness expected despite the strong March tally.
• Europe: March shipments of 77.3 million lbs; season-to-date 461.3 million lbs, up 7% YoY, reflecting stock replenishment and improved buying activity. European buyers are using the current stability to rebuild cover on a hand-to-mouth basis.
• Middle East: March shipments of 21.9 million lbs; season-to-date 255.0 million lbs, up 4% YoY. Trade flows are re-routing toward Türkiye, with geopolitical and freight risks still a key uncertainty.
• China & Hong Kong: March shipments of 4.1 million lbs; season-to-date 24.3 million lbs, down 45% YoY. However, fresh inquiries are emerging as Australia faces an 8–10% smaller crop and quality issues, shifting some demand back toward California.  

📊 Fundamentals: Stocks, Commitments & Crop Outlook

Crop receipts for August–March total 2,684.4 million lbs, only 0.6% below last year, and the working industry assumption is a 2.7 billion lb crop. The current sold position is estimated at 75.1% of total supply, with total commitments at 576.1 million lbs (+0.4% YoY). New sales in March reached 240.7 million lbs (+10.6% YoY), slightly below February but still indicative of healthy forward demand.

This combination—steady receipts, improving shipment pace, and firm commitments—points to a gradually tightening balance sheet. Uncommitted stocks remain adequate for now, but if the elevated sales pace continues into late spring, carryout could decline toward roughly 20% of total supply, a considerably more constructive setup than in recent years.  

Market attention is now turning to the 2026 crop. Forthcoming Land IQ acreage estimates and the USDA subjective forecast will be pivotal for confirming whether the next crop stays near the current 2.7 billion lb assumption or diverges. With the USDA dropping its traditional July Objective Estimate, the May forecast will likely carry more weight than usual for price formation.

🌦️ Weather & Risk Factors

In California’s Central Valley, the main bloom window has passed, and early field reports point to variable conditions and uneven nut set by region and variety. Recent patterns have featured warmer-than-usual nights and limited late-season precipitation, which are supportive for pollination but raise questions about water availability later in the season if snowpack remains below average.  

Beyond weather, logistics and geopolitics continue to influence trade flows, particularly into the Middle East and parts of Asia. Elevated freight costs and routing disruptions can temporarily cap export momentum or shift demand between origins, but the latest shipment data suggest that, so far, global demand has largely absorbed these frictions.

📌 Trading Outlook

• Importers in Europe: Use current price stability to secure Q3 coverage on core grades (Carmel, Nonpareil) while avoiding overextension beyond the May crop forecast. Prioritise flexible shipment windows and quality premiums given uncertainty over Australian supply.
• Buyers in India & Middle East: Near-term prices are likely to stay in a relatively tight band; consider staggered purchases over the next 4–8 weeks rather than waiting for significant downside that may not materialise if export pace remains strong.
• Packers & Processors: With 75% of supply already sold and commitments firm, focus on margin protection rather than aggressive forward selling until clearer visibility on 2026 yields and water conditions emerges.

📆 3-Day Price Direction Snapshot (EUR)

• US export almonds (Carmel/Nonpareil): Sideways to slightly firmer; strong exports and steady Indian/European demand support the upper end of recent ranges.
• Spanish almonds (Valencia/Guara/Marcona): Largely stable; mild upside risk tied to freight and substitution from tighter Californian and Australian inshell supply.
• Organic kernels: Stable at a premium; limited liquidity keeps bid–offer spreads wider but no clear directional break is expected over the next few sessions.