Turkish hazelnut kernel prices have edged down in early May, with Istanbul FOB offers softer across most sizes while weather-related crop risks in the Black Sea remain limited so far. Domestic inshell prices in Giresun and Ordu are stable to slightly weaker in TRY terms, pointing to a mildly bearish short‑term tone.
Hazelnut markets around the Black Sea are entering a weather‑sensitive phase, but recent cold snaps and scattered snow in higher altitudes have not yet triggered a strong risk premium in local spot prices. Across producing provinces like Giresun, Ordu and Sakarya, free‑market inshell quotes are holding roughly around previous ranges, even as growers question whether current levels adequately price in 2026‑crop uncertainties. For kernel exporters, softer Istanbul FOB levels meet still‑solid confectionery demand in Europe, keeping trade active but price‑competitive.
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Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
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natural 11-13mm
FOB 7.99 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
FOB 7.50 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices & Spreads
Recent kernel offer indications (FOB Istanbul, converted to EUR at ~1.08 EUR/USD when needed) show a modest week‑on‑week decline:
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Latest price (EUR/kg) | 1w change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazelnut kernels 13–15 mm, natural | TR | Istanbul FOB | ≈ €7.83 | ▼ about 1% |
| Hazelnut kernels 11–13 mm, natural | TR | Istanbul FOB | ≈ €7.40 | ▼ about 1% |
| Roasted, diced 2–4 mm | TR | Istanbul FOB | ≈ €6.95 | ▼ about 1–2% |
In the domestic Turkish free market, inshell Giresun quality prices around 225–240 TRY/kg and Ordu in roughly the low‑200s TRY/kg indicate a flat to slightly easier trend compared with late April. These TRY prices translate into kernel‑equivalent returns broadly consistent with the modest softening seen in export offers.
🌍 Supply, Weather & Demand
Turkey remains the core of global hazelnut supply, with recent industry projections putting 2025/26 Turkish production well below the previous bumper season, but still leaving substantial stocks. This cushions the market against short‑term weather shocks. In the last few days, higher elevations in Giresun and Ordu experienced late snow and cold, yet local reports emphasize that spot inshell prices did not spike, suggesting the trade does not see major frost damage at this stage.
Weather along the Black Sea coast has been unsettled with frequent showers in recent weeks, but this pattern is fairly typical for early May and can even support soil moisture during nut development when not accompanied by severe frost. On the demand side, the European confectionery sector remains the dominant buyer; updated trade statistics confirm strong cocoa‑ and chocolate‑related exports from Turkey to key EU markets like Germany, underscoring resilient downstream demand for kernels.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
Global hazelnut fundamentals remain balanced to slightly heavy. Latest international nut industry data show sizeable Turkish beginning stocks and only a moderate reduction in 2025/26 world supply versus the previous year, keeping total availability comfortable. At the same time, domestic commentary highlights farmer dissatisfaction with inshell price levels ahead of the new crop, reinforcing expectations that producers may hold back stocks if TRY prices weaken further.
Exporters are navigating a competitive environment: regional rivals such as Georgia and Azerbaijan offer smaller but relevant volumes, while large multinational buyers continue to diversify origin where feasible. Nevertheless, Turkey’s scale and processing infrastructure still anchor global pricing. Current small declines in kernel offers appear more linked to currency moves and comfortable nearby supply than to any structural demand weakness.
📆 Short-Term Outlook (3 Days, TR Focus)
For the next three days (7–9 May 2026), forecasts point to continued variable spring conditions along the eastern Black Sea, with passing showers and near‑seasonal temperatures but no widespread hard frost risk highlighted in local weather discussions. Barring a surprise event, this should limit immediate weather‑driven volatility in inshell or kernel prices.
- FOB Istanbul kernels: Bias slightly softer to sideways in EUR terms as sellers compete for export business; expect moves within ±1–2% around current levels.
- Domestic inshell (Giresun/Ordu): Likely to hover near current TRY ranges, with only minor day‑to‑day adjustments unless fresh damage reports emerge.
- EU demand: Confectionery buyers expected to continue routine spot and short‑term coverage; no clear catalyst for a sudden demand spike in the next few days.
💡 Trading Outlook
- European buyers (roasters, chocolate makers): Consider covering near‑term needs (1–2 months) on current Turkish FOB offers, which are slightly softer yet underpinned by solid fundamentals.
- Turkish exporters: Use small price dips to stimulate forward sales, but remain cautious about additional discounts given unresolved weather and policy risks into the main 2026 harvest.
- Producers in TR regions: In the absence of clear weather damage, maintain disciplined sales; excessive early selling could lock in currently modest TRY returns if later crop concerns emerge.
