Raisin Market Softens as Indian Demand Cools and Gulf Buying Stalls

Indian and international raisin prices are facing mild downside pressure as demand softens in key consuming regions and Gulf buying is disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Domestic demand in India has eased after the peak festival and wedding season, while Gulf importers face higher costs and logistical uncertainty, delaying purchases. In this environment, Indian raisins look competitive versus other origins, but a clear price floor has yet to be confirmed.

India’s yellow raisin market, centred on Maharashtra and Karnataka production and traded heavily through Delhi wholesale markets, has seen a ₹500 per quintal drop in the last week, with prices now around ₹19,000–₹20,000 per quintal (roughly €2.05–€2.15/kg equivalent). This decline is part of a broader pullback across dry fruits and nuts, highlighting a demand‑led adjustment rather than a supply shock. For European and Asian food manufacturers, the current dip offers an opportunity to secure volumes at attractive levels, provided they accept short‑term price volatility.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Indian wholesale yellow raisin prices in Delhi have eased to the equivalent of about €2.05–€2.15/kg at current FX, reflecting the ₹500 per quintal week‑on‑week decline. This softening aligns with a broader retreat in almonds, cashews, figs, dates and other dry fruits, confirming that buyers are stepping back across the whole segment rather than reacting to a raisin‑specific issue.

Export‑oriented offers corroborate the softer tone. In New Delhi (FOB), golden grade AA raisins from India are currently offered around €2.26/kg, with brown and black grades near €1.80/kg and €1.74/kg respectively. Comparable raisins ex‑Turkey (sultanas) are indicated around €2.18–€2.45/kg FOB, while Chinese sultanas into Northwest Europe are near €2.14/kg FCA, suggesting that Indian material is competitively priced against other mainstream origins.

Origin / Type	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–2 Week Change
India golden, grade AA	New Delhi, FOB	2.26	▼ from 2.28
India brown, grade AA	New Delhi, FOB	1.80	▼ from 1.82
India black, grade AA	New Delhi, FOB	1.74	▼ from 1.76
Turkey sultanas type 8–10	Malatya, FOB	2.18–2.34	mixed, some cuts
China sultanas std no.9	NL, FCA	2.14	steady
Chile flame jumbo	NL, FCA	2.44	steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

On the supply side, there is no evidence of sudden surplus or quality issues. Indian yellow raisins, primarily from Thompson Seedless grapes in Maharashtra and Karnataka, are moving through the normal late‑season window. Earlier tightness linked to smaller 2025/26 crops and hot, dry weather has given way to a more balanced picture as domestic pipelines are adequately stocked and fresh grape export flows taper off.

The current price weakness is therefore driven by demand. In India, consumption of dry fruits in confectionery, bakery and festive cooking naturally slows after the main festival and wedding periods, and the onset of hotter summer weather further dampens household appetite for rich, sweet preparations. Parallel declines in almonds, cashews, figs, dried apricots, dates and pine nuts indicate that traders and retailers are trimming positions across the category, not just in raisins.

India’s duel role as both producer and importer also shapes the ceiling for any near‑term price recovery. Imports from Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey provide alternative supply options, and traders closely monitor the price gap between domestic yellow raisins and imported grades. When Indian offers approach import parity, buyers can switch origin, limiting upside for local prices until either imports become more expensive or domestic availability tightens significantly.

🌐 Trade Flows, Gulf Risk & Logistics

Raisins are an important export line for India, with steady demand from Gulf markets, Southeast Asia and European food manufacturers using raisins in cereals, snack bars and confectionery. The current geopolitical tensions and partial closure around the Strait of Hormuz have complicated this picture. Container and bulk freight into Gulf ports is subject to higher insurance, delays and rerouting, while some grain and food cargoes face outright blockage or long waiting times, raising costs for importers.

For Indian exporters, this means weaker and more sporadic Gulf demand exactly when domestic consumption is also soft. Gulf buyers, highly dependent on imported foodstuffs, are dealing with elevated energy, fertilizer and freight prices and are prioritising essential staples over higher‑value processed items, including some dried fruits. As a result, export channels that would normally help absorb Indian raisin supplies are underperforming, reinforcing the mild bearish tone in local markets.

In Europe and Asia, by contrast, logistics are more stable, with the main spill‑over from the Middle East conflict being higher bunker costs and selective surcharges on long‑haul routes. Overcapacity in container shipping has so far limited a severe rate spike, which partially offsets energy‑related cost inflation for buyers moving raisins from India, Turkey, China or Chile into Northwest Europe and East Asia.

📊 Fundamentals & Short-Term Outlook

Fundamentally, the market is balanced to slightly heavy on available stocks, but not oversupplied. Traders are managing carry rather than struggling to clear a glut. The combination of seasonal demand weakness in India, softer Gulf buying and competitive offers from Turkey and China points to a continuation of rangebound or gently pressured pricing over the next two to four weeks.

For prices to recover meaningfully, one of two conditions is likely required: a clear pick‑up in institutional or festive buying in India (for example, renewed wedding‑season demand in northern states), or a tightening in import availability and higher replacement costs from Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey. Given ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and elevated global logistics and fertilizer costs, import availability could tighten later in the year, but that is not yet visible in spot trade flows.

European and Asian industrial buyers should recognise that current levels represent a relatively favourable entry point from a multi‑month perspective. However, confirmation of a firm price floor will depend on evidence of stronger call‑off from domestic Indian channels or a return of more normal Gulf import programs once shipping conditions stabilise.

🌤 Weather Snapshot (Maharashtra & Key Origins)

In Maharashtra’s grape and raisin belt, seasonal heat is intensifying as summer progresses, which primarily affects electricity and storage costs for existing inventories rather than this year’s already‑processed raisins. Early‑season hot and dry conditions contributed to modestly tighter raw grape supplies, but those effects are now largely priced in.

In Turkey’s Aegean sultana regions and China’s Xinjiang raisin areas, current weather patterns are seasonally normal to slightly warm, with no major new threats reported to the developing grape crop. Barring an unexpected weather event in the coming months, supply expectations from these origins remain broadly stable, which also argues for a mostly sideways global raisin price environment in the very near term.

📆 Trading & Procurement Outlook

• Indian domestic traders: Expect mildly pressured or rangebound prices over the next 2–4 weeks; avoid aggressive destocking at current levels, but be selective in building long positions until signs of renewed wedding or institutional demand appear.
• Gulf importers: Use any temporary easing in freight or insurance premia to secure minimum coverage, but maintain cautious purchasing given Hormuz‑related logistics risk and potential further price softness from India.
• European & Asian food manufacturers: Current Indian offers around €2.2/kg for golden grades and below €1.8–€1.9/kg for darker grades provide good value versus Turkey and Chile; consider layering in coverage for Q3–Q4 while keeping some flexibility for potential further dips.
• Speculative participants: With fundamentals pointing to balance rather than tightness and geopolitical risk focused on logistics rather than crop loss, the risk‑reward for large directional long positions in raisins is limited in the short term.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication

• India (New Delhi, FOB): Golden, brown and black grade AA raisins likely to trade slightly softer to flat over the next three days, staying near €2.20–€2.30/kg for golden and €1.70–€1.85/kg for brown/black grades, with limited spot buying interest.
• Turkey (Malatya, FOB): Sultana prices expected to remain broadly stable in the €2.15–€2.35/kg range, as exporters balance competitive pressure from India against relatively steady European demand.
• Northwest Europe (NL/DE, FCA): Imported raisins (Chinese sultanas, Chilean flame, Afghan feed grades) are likely to hold near current levels of roughly €1.85–€2.45/kg, with freight and fuel surcharges the main short‑term variables rather than underlying commodity price moves.