Raisin Prices: Turkish Correction Meets Firm Indian and Chinese Offers

Raisin prices across key export origins are mildly firmer in India and broadly stable to softer for Turkish and Chinese sultanas, leaving the near‑term market balanced with a slight downward bias in EUR for standard grades. Competitive Chinese supply into Europe and recent Turkish spot discounts cap upside, while targeted buying interest and limited premium stocks keep top grades supported.

Through late April 2026, buyers face a two‑speed market. Turkish sultanas have corrected from earlier highs as Malatya exporters cut FOB prices to stimulate demand, while Chinese sellers continue to undercut Türkiye into North‑West Europe. India, by contrast, shows small but clear price increases on several raisin types, reflecting currency effects, logistics costs and firm domestic demand for table grapes and dried fruit. Weather conditions in major raisin regions are seasonally normal with no acute short‑term threats, so fundamentals rather than weather shocks dominate price direction for the next few days.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

All prices below are indicative wholesale export or EU‑delivered levels, converted to EUR/kg.

Origin	Type / Grade	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1W Trend
India (IN)	Golden, grade AA	New Delhi, FCA	≈ 2.50	Firm ↑ (notable rise vs mid‑April)
India (IN)	Brown, grade AA	New Delhi, FCA	≈ 1.85	Firm ↑
India (IN)	Black, grade AA	New Delhi, FCA	≈ 1.87	Slight ↑
Türkiye (TR)	Sultanas type 9–10, conv.	Malatya, FOB	≈ 2.15–2.35	Softer vs mid‑April
Türkiye (TR)	Sultanas, organic	Malatya, FOB	≈ 3.10	Stable
China (CN)	Sultanas std no.9	NW Europe, FCA	≈ 2.14–2.17	Flat / marginally softer
Chile (CL)	Flame jumbo	NW Europe, FCA	≈ 2.44	Stable
Afghanistan (AF)	Feed raisins, brown	NW Europe, FCA	≈ 1.89	Stable / slight ↑

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Türkiye (TR)

Recent market reports confirm a clear correction in Turkish sultana prices into late April, with Malatya exporters discounting key grades to around 1.30–1.35 USD/lb FOB (≈ 2.78–2.89 EUR/kg) on higher qualities, and local conventional offers for type 9–10 trading below earlier April levels. Ample carry‑in stocks after prior frost‑affected seasons and sluggish export demand are encouraging aggressive spot selling, while organic sultanas remain relatively tight and price‑resilient.

Industry data show Türkiye’s 2025/26 raisin production projected lower than the previous year, but still providing sufficient exportable surplus when combined with beginning stocks, helping cap prices despite earlier frost concerns. In the very short term, exporters focus on volume and cash flow rather than holding for higher prices, which keeps a mild downward bias for standard grades.

China (CN)

China’s Xinjiang region remains a highly competitive origin for sultanas and green raisins, supplying the bulk of domestic and export volumes, particularly into Europe. Market commentary this week highlights Chinese offers into North‑West Europe at a discount to Turkish product, prompting some substitution by value‑driven buyers and adding pressure on Turkish prices.

Latest sector analysis points to rising Chinese raisin output in 2025/26 versus the prior season, strengthening China’s role as a price anchor in standard quality segments. No acute logistical issues are reported, and compliance‑related risks (forced‑labour and food safety) remain a medium‑term structural factor rather than an immediate price driver.

India (IN)

India’s raisin complex is tightening modestly on the back of a smaller 2025/26 grape crop and ongoing strength in domestic fresh‑grape demand. Recent official dashboards note that continuous rainfall during April–October 2025 reduced sunlight and affected grape quality and yields, with export opportunities for fresh grapes somewhat constrained. This redirects part of the crop and infrastructure toward value‑added products like raisins, but overall availability into 2026 is down from the prior year.

Global industry figures confirm that India’s raisin production for 2025/26 is expected to fall sharply from about 245,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to around 160,000 tonnes, reducing total supply and ending stocks. This tighter balance helps explain the firming FCA and FOB prices now visible out of New Delhi.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan remains a relatively small but growing raisin producer, with world industry data showing output rising from around 12,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to an estimated 20,000 tonnes in 2025/26. Trade statistics also indicate continued exports of fresh and dried grapes to neighbouring markets such as Uzbekistan in early 2026. Export logistics and quality control still limit Afghanistan’s ability to fully capitalise on this growth, but incremental volume contributes to the ample supply picture in lower‑grade and feed segments.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s raisin production is projected roughly steady year‑on‑year at around 63,000 tonnes in 2025/26, according to global supply balances. Flame jumbo raisins shipped to Europe are trading in a narrow range, with no major weather or logistical issues reported around the tail of the 2026 harvest. This leaves Chile as a stable, quality‑focused supplier, particularly for premium seedless and larger‑berry categories.

🌦️ Weather Overview for Key Raisin Regions (Next Few Days)

India (IN)

For Maharashtra and Nashik‑type grape belts, late‑April conditions are seasonally warm with rising daytime temperatures and mostly dry weather, supportive for the final stages of grape harvesting and post‑harvest drying where applicable. Broader agro‑weather briefs for East and South Asia describe near‑ to above‑normal temperatures and beneficial showers mainly focused on rice and oilseed areas, with no indication of disruptive rainfall in the main raisin belts over the last week. Weather therefore is neutral to slightly supportive for quality preservation of remaining stocks.

Türkiye (TR)

In Malatya and other Aegean sultana regions, the critical frost‑risk window of early April has largely passed without major new incidents reported in the last few days. Recent dried‑fruit market commentary notes that current Turkish grower stress is driven more by financial pressure and export demand than by acute weather shocks. Near‑term forecasts show typical spring variability but no imminent extreme cold or heat events that would alter the 2026/27 crop outlook within the next three days.

China (CN)

In Xinjiang, including Turpan and Kashgar, late‑April conditions are generally dry with mild to warm daytime temperatures, consistent with historical patterns that favour early vine development. Local forecasts for the current week show stable weather without major rainfall or cold‑spell risks. Overall, weather in China is a supportive but not price‑critical factor in the immediate term.

Chile (CL) & Afghanistan (AF)

For Chile, the main 2026 grape harvest is winding down, and global crop bulletins over the last days highlight no disruptive late‑season events in major fruit‑growing valleys. In Afghanistan, vineyard areas are entering the active growth phase under gradually warming spring conditions; no specific extreme‑weather events have been reported in the last few days that would materially change the 2025/26 or 2026/27 outlook.

📊 Fundamentals & Positioning

• Global balance: World raisin production is expected to decline from about 1.35 million tonnes in 2024/25 to roughly 1.16 million tonnes in 2025/26, with ending stocks also falling, but still at comfortable levels.
• Regional shifts: Lower output in Türkiye and India is partly offset by higher production in China, South Africa and Australia, maintaining adequate supply for standard grades.
• Demand: Retail demand in Europe is steady but not overheating, while food‑industry buyers remain price‑sensitive and willing to switch between Turkish and Chinese origins depending on EUR‑denominated offers.
• Speculative tone: With no immediate weather scare and comfortable stocks, speculative buying is muted; most activity is genuine hedging and short‑term coverage.

📆 3‑Day Price Outlook & Trading Suggestions

Directional Price Outlook (Next 3 Days)

• India (IN): FCA/FOB raisin prices are likely to stay firm to slightly higher, supported by reduced 2025/26 production and steady domestic demand. Range‑bound to mildly bullish bias.
• Türkiye (TR): After the recent correction, Malatya sultanas are expected to trade sideways to slightly softer as exporters continue to prioritise volume and cash flow; downside from here is limited but not exhausted.
• China (CN): Prices into Europe should remain stable with a mild downward tilt, keeping a discount to Turkish equivalents and sustaining competitive pressure on the market.
• Chile (CL): Flame jumbo raisins in Europe are expected to hold steady, with tight premium demand offset by stable supply and no fresh weather news.
• Afghanistan (AF): Feed‑grade raisin values in Europe should remain broadly stable, tracking the lower end of the global range with slight support from growing, but still modest, Afghan production.

Trading Recommendations

• Packers & industrial buyers in Europe: Use current Turkish softness and competitive Chinese offers to secure short‑term cover (Q2–Q3), but avoid over‑committing beyond this window as global supply for 2025/26, while comfortable, is trending modestly lower.
• Premium segment buyers: Lock in needed volumes of organic Turkish sultanas and large‑berry Chilean flame jumbo now, as these niches show far less downside and could tighten on any later‑season weather or quality issues.
• Importers exposed to India: Given the projected production drop and recent price firming, consider advancing purchases of Indian golden and brown raisins before further incremental increases filter through in EUR terms.
• Risk management: Maintain geographic diversification across Türkiye, China, Chile, India and Afghanistan to hedge against future regional weather or policy shocks while benefitting from current price competition.