Indian Raisin Prices Firm on Tight Supply and Hot, Dry Weather

Indian raisin prices in New Delhi are edging higher, supported by structurally tighter 2025/26 supplies and resilient export demand, while global benchmark sultana values remain broadly steady in Turkey and Northwest Europe. The near‑term price bias in India is mildly bullish for premium grades.

India’s raisin market is entering late-season trade with reduced domestic availability after weather‑affected grape crops and lower 2025/26 raisin production, while exporters continue to service demand from Europe, MENA and Asia. Global balance sheets confirm a notable year‑on‑year drop in Indian raisin output and a generally tighter world market, even as Turkish sultanas provide an anchor for international prices. Current hot and mostly dry conditions in Maharashtra’s grape belt are supportive for curing and storage quality rather than a new weather shock, so price moves over the next three days are expected to be gradual rather than volatile.

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📈 Prices & Spreads (All in EUR)

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR.

Origin	Location / Term	Type / Grade	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Δ (EUR/kg)
India	New Delhi, FCA	Golden, AA	~2.09	+0.07
India	New Delhi, FCA	Black, AA	~1.70	+0.06
India	New Delhi, FCA	Brown, AA	~1.67	+0.05
Türkiye	Malatya, FOB	Sultanas #9, Grade A	~2.37	Firm
Türkiye	Malatya, FOB	Sultanas #10, Grade A	~2.65	Firm
China	Dordrecht, FCA	Sultanas #9, AA	~1.97	Slightly softer

🌍 Supply & Demand Backdrop

Fresh grape exports from India’s 2026 season are nearing completion, with only 10,000–15,000 tonnes of grapes estimated left for export as of early April, underscoring that the pipeline of raw material for new raisins is largely set for this marketing year.

On the supply side, the latest global industry balance sheet points to a sharp reduction in India’s raisin production, from about 245,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to roughly 160,000 tonnes in 2025/26, cutting total Indian supply by almost 30%. This keeps domestic availability tight despite subdued on‑farm investment after previous weather shocks to Maharashtra’s grape belt.

Globally, world raisin/sultana output is also projected lower year‑on‑year, from around 1.35 million tonnes to 1.16 million tonnes in 2025/26, while ending stocks decrease only modestly, indicating a tighter but not extreme market. Türkiye remains the key stabiliser: after last season’s lower export volumes but record revenues, the country continues to dominate seedless dried grape trade, anchoring international reference prices even as costs rise.

For India specifically, earlier reports of heavy losses in Maharashtra’s grape cultivation and a marked decline in raisin exports in 2025 still frame sentiment, as buyers assume limited ability to quickly rebuild stock levels. At the same time, broader Indian agri‑export momentum to Europe is robust, with cereals and other foods gaining share, which indirectly supports expectations of firm EU demand for Indian value‑added horticultural products, including raisins.

🌦️ Weather in Key Indian Raisin Regions (Maharashtra)

The current phase (mid‑April 2026) in Maharashtra is dominated by above‑normal heat rather than fresh rainfall disruptions. The India Meteorological Department has forecast warmer‑than‑usual nights and more frequent heatwave days for the March–May period across much of the state, increasing evapotranspiration but generally favouring rapid drying and storage of existing raisin stocks.

An earlier alert for unseasonal rain between 31 March and 4 April has already passed, with no major follow‑up disturbance signalled since then. Given that the 2026 fresh grape harvest is almost complete, these weather patterns mainly influence curing conditions and warehouse energy costs rather than yields. Hot, dry weather in Nashik–Sangli–Tasgaon is therefore slightly supportive for quality premiums but not a fresh bullish shock for volumes.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tighter Indian balance sheet: A nearly one‑third drop in India’s 2025/26 raisin production materially tightens the local balance, underpinning price resilience even in the face of competition from Turkish and Chinese sultanas.
• Global supply constraints: World raisin output is also lower this season, reducing the buffer from alternative origins and maintaining a firm undertone in international offers.
• Premium grades in focus: Industry reports highlight a particularly tight premium segment (golden and top sultanas) linked to geopolitical risk and logistics involving Iran and neighbouring origins, which channels additional demand towards Indian and Turkish supplies.
• Export demand: Despite earlier export declines from Maharashtra, India remains a key supplier to North Africa, Russia, the Middle East and South/Southeast Asia, keeping a floor under prices for export‑oriented grades in New Delhi and western India.

📆 3-Day Price Outlook (Region: India)

Timeframe: 19–21 April 2026

• New Delhi, FCA – Golden AA: With recent gains and tight premium supply, prices are likely to remain firm to slightly higher (up to ~1–2% in EUR terms), assuming no sudden INR appreciation or freight relief.
• New Delhi, FCA – Black & Brown AA: Mildly bullish bias; expect mostly steady to +1% over the next three days, supported by domestic festival and Ramadan/Eid‑adjacent restocking in some markets.
• FOB India vs Turkish FOB: Turkish sultana values are expected to stay broadly stable, limiting sharp upside in Indian FOB offers, but the tighter Indian balance suggests any downside is shallow near term.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian buyers (domestic packers, wholesalers): Consider covering short‑term needs promptly for golden AA and top black/brown grades, as local tightness and hot weather support a firm tone. Scale‑down buying on minor dips rather than waiting for a significant correction.
• Exporters from India: For April–June shipments, maintain offers at current or slightly higher levels for premium grades, especially into MENA and Eastern Europe, where alternative Iranian/Central Asian supplies face geopolitical and logistical risk.
• Importers in Europe and Asia: Use Turkish sultanas and Chinese sultanas as benchmarks for price negotiation, but recognise that Indian premium qualities may not fully track any softness given the country’s tighter balance sheet.
• Risk management: Watch INR/EUR moves and freight from Nhava Sheva and Mumbai; any easing in container rates could partly offset firming raw‑material prices, while a weaker rupee would improve export competitiveness.

Over the next three days, the baseline scenario is for steady to mildly firmer Indian raisin prices in EUR terms in New Delhi across golden, black and brown AA grades, with no major weather‑driven shocks expected in Maharashtra.

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