Raisin Market Eyes Potential Frost Risk Despite Firm Turkish Prices

Export demand for Turkish raisins remains solid for now, but early yield estimates and a looming frost risk in the Aegean create a fragile balance that could quickly shift prices. Spot prices are broadly steady to slightly softer in some grades, while market participants brace for possible weather-driven volatility in May.

As late April brings rising daytime temperatures across the Aegean vineyards, growers and traders are in the fields assessing potential crop size. First impressions point to a sizeable 2026/27 raw material availability of roughly 250,000–300,000 tons, but these figures are highly preliminary and could change once flowering and fruit set are fully visible in May. Weekly exports up to 25 April were 2,940 tons, about 650 tons above the same week last year, underlining resilient demand. However, expectations of a demand slowdown and forecasts of lower night temperatures in early May could pressure prices in the short term, even as frost risk keeps production uncertainty elevated.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Turkish sultana prices in EUR are currently stable at relatively attractive levels, with only limited week‑on‑week movement in the core types. As of 28 April, Turkish sultanas type 9 RTU (CIF) are indicated around EUR 2.13/kg, type 10 grade A (FOB) at EUR 2.34/kg, and organic type 9 grade A around EUR 3.10/kg. Type 8 grade A has eased to roughly EUR 2.18/kg FOB, while conventional type 9 grade A is quoted near EUR 2.45/kg FOB, reflecting some internal repricing between grades.

In Europe, Turkish sultanas RTU ex Netherlands trade closer to EUR 2.84/kg FCA, showing the added logistical and handling costs into the EU. Competing origins remain broadly in line: Chinese sultanas std no. 9 are near EUR 2.14/kg FCA in the Netherlands, while Chilean flame jumbo is around EUR 2.44/kg FCA. Indian brown raisins (FOB) hover around EUR 1.82/kg, with golden grades near EUR 2.28/kg and black raisins around EUR 1.76–1.87/kg depending on terms, underlining India’s role as a competitive alternative for price‑sensitive segments.

Origin / Type	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Trend
TR sultanas type 9 RTU	Malatya, CIF	2.13	Softer vs mid‑April
TR sultanas type 10 A	Malatya, FOB	2.34	Down from ~2.85
TR sultanas type 9 A	Malatya, FOB	2.45	Rebound after earlier cut
TR organic sultanas type 9 A	Malatya, FOB	3.10	Stable
IN raisins golden AA	New Delhi, FOB	2.28	Slightly firmer

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Field visits in the Aegean suggest a potential crop in the 250,000–300,000 ton range, indicating a comfortable supply outlook if weather remains benign. However, these are early impressions; flowering is ongoing, and final yield visibility will improve only in May. The current narrative is one of adequate prospective supply, which, together with talk of softer demand in the weeks ahead, points to modest downside risk for prices in the near term.

On the demand side, weekly exports as of 25 April reached 2,940 tons, about 650 tons above the same week a year earlier, showing that export interest is still robust at present price levels. If the anticipated slack in demand materializes—especially from European packers after earlier forward coverage—selling pressure could increase, particularly in lower and mid‑range grades. High‑value organic and specialty raisins are more insulated but will not be immune if a broader correction unfolds.

🌦️ Weather & Frost Risk

Late April brought rising daytime temperatures in the Aegean, which is generally supportive for early vine development. For the coming week, Manisa and surrounding raisin districts are expected to see mild to warm days around 19–27°C, with cooler, cloudier conditions and some showers around 1–3 May, and night‑time lows mostly in the 7–10°C range. This pattern aligns with the seasonal transition but keeps growers attentive to any sharper night‑time drops.

Market participants are specifically watching forecasts for falling night temperatures in the first half of May, which could bring localized frost episodes. Even if frost occurs, the extent of damage and any impact on the overall crop size will not be clear before mid‑May. Until then, the market is likely to price in only a modest weather premium, with more significant moves dependent on confirmed damage reports or, conversely, confirmation of a largely intact crop.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

The fundamental backdrop combines three key elements: early expectations of a sizeable Turkish crop, currently firm exports, and potential near‑term demand easing. The stronger year‑on‑year weekly export figure shows that international buyers have been active, likely encouraged by the relative value of Turkish raisins versus alternative snacks and dried fruit. At the same time, recent adjustments in Turkish price lists indicate that sellers are sensitive to demand signals and willing to tweak offers to maintain flows.

Globally, India and China provide a competitive floor with relatively stable FOB offers, while logistics from Chile and South Africa into Europe remain manageable, limiting Turkey’s capacity to push prices significantly higher without a compelling supply shock. Currency developments and freight costs will remain secondary but relevant factors; in the absence of sharp FX moves, the dominant drivers in May will be export order flow and the evolution of frost risk in the Aegean vineyards.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Short‑term buyers (packers, importers): Consider covering near‑term needs at current Turkish levels, which already reflect some easing versus mid‑April. Avoid over‑extending coverage until frost risk is clearer in mid‑May.
• Producers and exporters in Turkey: Maintain price discipline but be prepared for selective discounts on larger volumes if export inquiries slow in the coming weeks. Monitor night‑time temperatures closely; any confirmed frost damage would justify firmer offers.
• Industrial users and blenders: Use the current relatively tight spreads between Turkish and Indian/Chinese origins to diversify origin mix and hedge against potential weather‑driven volatility later in the season.

Over the next three trading days, prices on Malatya FOB/CIF Turkish sultanas are likely to trade sideways with a slight downward bias amid talk of softer demand, while European FCA levels in the Netherlands and Germany should remain broadly stable, reflecting adequate nearby availability. Any abrupt change in weather forecasts—particularly a stronger frost signal—could quickly shift sentiment from mildly bearish to risk‑aware, but a decisive trend move is more likely only once May weather outcomes are clearer.