Almond Market Tightens as California Acreage Falls and Demand Firms

Almond supply is entering a structural tightening phase as California acreage declines, lifting the medium‑term price floor despite only modest near‑term moves in spot values. Demand remains broadly constructive, suggesting a gradual shift from oversupply toward a more balanced market.

After several seasons of low margins, water constraints and high input costs, growers have started to remove weaker orchards and cut back on high‑cost production. This marks the beginning of a correction process rather than a short‑lived fluctuation. Forward market sentiment is cautiously optimistic: while nearby prices are not surging, the downside appears increasingly limited as the global industry adjusts capacity to more realistic demand growth. Weather, water regulation and logistics will be the key swing factors for the coming months.

📈 Prices & Spot Market

Recent offer indications suggest a broadly stable to slightly softer spot market in late April 2026, even as the structural supply story turns more supportive. U.S. almond kernels (Carmel, SSR 18/20 and 20/22) are assessed around EUR 6.60–6.70/kg FAS Washington D.C., down only a few euro cents from mid‑April. Organic Nonpareil SSR 27/30 from the U.S. is offered near EUR 9.30/kg FOB, while Spanish Valencia and Guara types mostly trade in a EUR 5.50–5.90/kg FOB Madrid range, with Marcona qualities higher around EUR 6.55–8.80/kg.

These marginal week‑on‑week declines indicate that buyers are still price‑sensitive after a prolonged period of low grower returns, but they also suggest that further downside is increasingly limited as supply tightens. Retail and foodservice channels report some consumer pushback at the shelf, yet pipeline coverage appears only moderate, leaving space for restocking should macro conditions stabilize.

Product	Origin	Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1‑week change (EUR/kg)
Almond kernels Carmel SSR 18/20	US	FAS Washington D.C.	6.65	-0.05
Almond kernels Carmel SSR 20/22	US	FAS Washington D.C.	6.60	-0.05
Almond kernels Nonpareil SSR 27/30 (organic)	US	FOB Washington D.C.	9.27	-0.05
Almond kernels Valencia 12/14	Spain	FOB Madrid	5.50	-0.05
Almond kernels Marcona 14/16	Spain	FOB Madrid	8.15	-0.05

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

California, which dominates global almond exports, is now clearly in a phase of acreage rationalisation. Industry sources report that sustained pricing pressure, restricted water availability and rising input costs have pushed growers to remove older or less efficient orchards, while others rely on deficit irrigation. This aligns with recent acreage estimates showing the first decline in bearing almond area in decades, alongside significant orchard removals in 2024–26.

At the same time, nursery sales and new plantings indicate that the overall tree base is not collapsing but slowly recalibrating. Demand fundamentals remain supportive: almonds continue to benefit from their strong positioning in healthy snacking, plant‑based and functional foods, with new product innovation keeping the ingredient in focus. Buyers, however, are increasingly selective on price and quality, extending tenders and staggering coverage to manage cost risk while monitoring macroeconomic headwinds.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

Structurally, the key shift is from chronic oversupply toward a more balanced market. Years of subdued farm‑gate prices, particularly when measured against water, labor and fertilizer costs, have eroded margins and made marginal orchards uneconomic. The implementation of groundwater regulations in California further constrains the ability to maintain low‑yield blocks, reinforcing the trend toward acreage consolidation and improved on‑farm efficiency.

On the demand side, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Food manufacturers continue to favor almonds for their versatility and consumer recognition, especially in bars, dairy alternatives and confectionery. Yet high interest rates, elevated logistics and insurance costs and lingering geopolitical risks keep importers conservative. Any renewed freight disruption or export bottleneck from California could quickly tighten nearby availability, particularly in import‑dependent regions such as South Asia and the Middle East.

🌤 Weather & Water Outlook

Weather and water availability remain critical swing factors for 2026/27 supply. Recent drought status updates for California and Nevada highlight below‑normal precipitation in parts of the region and a seasonal outlook favoring warmer‑than‑normal conditions into the May–July period. While not yet pointing to an extreme drought event, these patterns could increase irrigation demand and further pressure already constrained groundwater resources.

In practical terms, this environment encourages continued deficit irrigation strategies on marginal blocks and may cap yield potential on older orchards. Well‑capitalised growers with secure surface water access are better positioned to sustain production, but the regional variability in water allocations suggests that orchard removals may continue in the most water‑stressed districts, supporting the medium‑term tightening in supply.

📆 Forecast & Trading Outlook

With acreage already starting to contract and demand expected to strengthen gradually, the almond market is likely transitioning from a buyer’s market toward a more balanced, potentially tighter scenario over the next 1–3 seasons. Producers are increasingly confident that this supply‑side adjustment will underpin a slow but durable price recovery, even if near‑term spot quotations remain range‑bound.

• Buyers: Consider layering in forward coverage on price dips in the EUR 6.50–6.70/kg range for standard U.S. kernels, prioritising origin and quality diversification (U.S. vs. Spain). Avoid excessive hand‑to‑mouth strategies given emerging structural tightness.
• Growers: Focus on cost control and water efficiency while maintaining flexibility to respond to firmer prices. Upgrading weaker blocks and aligning production with higher‑value specifications (e.g., organic, premium varieties) can capture better margins as the market rebalances.
• Traders: Maintain balanced books and monitor California weather and water updates closely. Basis differentials between U.S. and Mediterranean origins may widen if further U.S. orchard removals coincide with any weather‑related yield setback.

📍 3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• US origins (FAS, Washington D.C.): Sideways to mildly firm; EUR 6.60–6.70/kg for standard kernels likely to hold, with limited downside as supply tightens.
• Spanish origins (FOB Madrid): Slightly softer tone but largely stable; Valencia types expected to trade around EUR 5.50–5.90/kg, Marcona at a premium near EUR 6.50–8.80/kg.
• Premium/organic segments: Stable to firm; quality differentials expected to persist as buyers show limited willingness to trade down from established specifications.