Turkish Raisin Prices Pause After Volatile April Moves

Turkish raisin prices are stabilising in late April after sharp mid‑month swings, with conventional Malatya sultanas broadly steady and type‑8 values easing from recent highs. A firm but not overheated market, combined with benign short‑term weather in key growing areas, points to a sideways bias near term.

After a choppy April, the Turkish raisin market has shifted into consolidation mode. FOB Malatya sultana prices for higher grades are holding around late‑month levels, while some standard qualities are retracing part of their earlier rally. Producers face ongoing cost pressure and a weak lira, yet soft global demand and comfortable world raisin supplies are preventing a new leg higher. Near‑term weather in Malatya looks seasonally mild with limited rain, reducing immediate crop‑risk headlines and helping buyers negotiate more calmly on nearby shipments.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are converted into approximate EUR/kg using 1 EUR ≈ 35 TRY for domestic context and 1 EUR ≈ 1.08 USD for global reference where relevant.

Origin	Type / Grade	Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–2 Week Change
Türkiye (Malatya)	Sultanas type 10, grade A	FOB	≈ 2.17	Down from ≈ 2.65 mid‑April, now steady
Türkiye (Malatya)	Sultanas type 9, grade A	FOB	≈ 2.27	Rebounded from ≈ 2.02 earlier in April
Türkiye (Malatya)	Sultanas type 8, grade A	FOB	≈ 2.02	Down ≈ 11% vs mid‑April
Türkiye (Malatya)	Sultanas type 9, RTU	CIF	≈ 1.98	Flat on week after earlier drop
India (New Delhi)	Golden raisins, grade AA	FOB	≈ 2.11	Slightly firmer m/m
Chile → NL	Flame jumbo	FCA	≈ 2.26	Stable

The late‑April pattern shows Turkish sultanas now trading in the mid‑EUR 2.0s/kg FOB for standard grades, modestly above Indian brown and black raisins but competitive versus Chilean and Chinese offers into Europe. Global production in 2025/26 is projected lower year‑on‑year, but still ample, with Türkiye’s raisin supply forecast to decline from the previous season yet remain substantial in world terms.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Macro Drivers

World raisin/sultana/currant production for 2025/26 is expected to slip to around 1.16 million tonnes from roughly 1.35 million tonnes in 2024/25, with Türkiye’s output projected down from about 226,000 tonnes to 165,000 tonnes as carry‑in stocks normalise. Even so, carryover in major origins keeps the overall balance comfortable, limiting the upside from reduced new‑crop expectations.

In Türkiye, the weak lira – trading around TRY 52–53 per EUR in late April – cushions EUR‑based buyers from domestic inflation and supports the competitiveness of FOB raisin offers, mirroring dynamics seen in other Turkish dried fruit markets such as apricots and hazelnuts. Demand from European snack, bakery and cereal sectors remains steady but unspectacular, with buyers mostly hand‑to‑mouth and reluctant to extend coverage far into the 2026/27 season.

Competitive pressure from India, China and Chile is notable in value segments. Indian brown and black raisins remain discounted versus Turkish sultanas on a EUR basis, while Chinese and Chilean product competes closely in Europe for mid‑ to higher‑end industrial applications. This multi‑origin competition helps cap Turkish price rallies unless weather or currency shocks become more significant.

🌦️ Weather Outlook – Malatya & Aegean Vine Areas

Short‑term weather in Malatya, a key dried fruit hub, is seasonally mild. Forecasts for the coming days show daytime highs around 20–22°C and lows near 10–12°C, with mostly partly cloudy to sunny conditions and only light, scattered showers. This pattern is benign for developing vines and does not currently point to frost or heavy rain threats.

Nearby districts in Malatya province such as Doğanşehir show a similar 5‑ to 10‑day outlook: moderate temperatures, light winds and no severe events flagged. While it is still early in the vegetative cycle for sultana grapes, the absence of immediate weather stress should keep crop‑risk premia muted in the coming week. Any later spring cold snaps would be the key watchpoint for bulls.

📊 Fundamentals & Cost Factors

Drying and processing costs in Türkiye remain under upward pressure due to energy and labour inflation, but the weaker currency offsets much of this in EUR terms. A recent national ban on sulphur exports during Q2–Q3 2026 is aimed at securing domestic supply of sulphur, a key input for fertilisers and sulphur dioxide used in dried fruit processing. This policy should limit cost spikes for Turkish processors versus foreign competitors who rely more heavily on imported sulphur.

On the supply side, the latest global industry projections still show Türkiye as one of the top three raisin producers, but with a narrower export surplus in 2025/26 versus previous years. Combined with steady but not booming demand, this points to a market that is fundamentally balanced: enough product to meet needs, but less room for aggressive discounting from Turkish origin than in oversupplied years.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication (EUR)

🔎 Strategy Pointers

• Importers in EU / MENA: Consider layering in short‑term coverage for Q2–Q3 at current mid‑EUR 2.0s/kg FOB levels for standard Turkish sultanas, as benign weather and a weak lira argue for stability but not deep discounts.
• Industrial users on a budget: Keep Indian brown/black raisins in the mix for price‑sensitive formulations, but monitor Turkish offers closely; any brief dips on currency volatility could narrow today’s cross‑origin spread.
• Producers / exporters in Türkiye: With costs high and lira weak, hold the line on offers rather than chasing volume via aggressive undercutting, unless new weather or demand shocks emerge.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR/kg)

Region / Market	Product	Current Level*	3‑Day Bias
Malatya, TR (FOB)	Sultanas type 9–10, grade A	≈ 2.15–2.30	Sideways (±1–2%)
Malatya, TR (FOB)	Sultanas type 8, grade A	≈ 2.00	Slight downside consolidation
EU (NL hub, FCA)	Imported Turkish sultanas std no.9	≈ 2.60–2.70	Stable, tight range

*Indicative levels based on latest offers converted to EUR; actual trades may vary by volume, spec and credit terms.